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    Value Investing In Defense of the IPO, and How to Improve It

    August 29, 2020

    Value Investing In Defense of the IPO, and How to Improve It

    In Defense of the IPO, and How to Improve It

    Posted: 28 Aug 2020 10:56 AM PDT

    Bill Gurley – Direct Listing vs. IPOs

    Posted: 29 Aug 2020 12:18 AM PDT

    Auto Loans in COVID

    Posted: 28 Aug 2020 02:40 PM PDT

    Auto loan delinquencies seem to have been high before COVID hit. The NY Fed household survey showed that 5% of auto loans were 90+ days delinquent in 2020 Q1, and just slightly lower in 2019 Q4. By comparison, this figure was 2.5% in the middle of 2007, before the recession.

    In the previous crisis, auto loan delinquencies seem to have soured in lock step with rising unemployment rates. This time, it seems they soured ahead of the economy or unemployment rates.

    Does anyone have a view on why these won't get worse as the effects of COVID's unemployment are felt? Is Federal stimulus enough to prevent loan delinquencies? Is there more trouble ahead?

    Data sources: FRB of NY (Quarterly Reports on Household Debt/Credit) and the BLS

    submitted by /u/financiallyanal
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    Process, Risk Management and Mispricings w/ Gary Mishuris, Silver Ring Value Partners

    Posted: 28 Aug 2020 12:20 PM PDT

    Business Model Meta-Models

    Posted: 28 Aug 2020 10:55 AM PDT

    Question about Graham Number considering MFGP and AMD

    Posted: 28 Aug 2020 04:27 AM PDT

    Hi all,

    I am very new to security analysis and just came across Graham Number which says you can consider investing in a company if P/E * P/BV < 22.5 given a large market cap.

    I was looking at some stocks for an example and came across two different worlds.

    ​

    • MFGP which currently has P/E=1.03 and P/BV=0.21, with a large market cap. Which seems insane according to this heuristic formula, but all the advisors advising sell until recently and stock price trending down.
    • AMD which currently has P/E=166.6 and P/BV=29.72, with a large market cap. Which seems also insane on the other end of the spectrum, but advisors are advising buy and stock is breaking record prices.

    My question is why is there such a discrepency? It seems to me like if MFGP should be very safe to invest in even if they fail considering their P/BV, whereas for AMD, even if they 10folded their earnings next year, would be a bad stock for current price.

    ​

    If can anyone give me some insight on this I would be very grateful. Cheers.

    submitted by /u/barburger
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