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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing


    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 05:09 AM PDT

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Buffett buys back record $5.1 billion in Berkshire stock as coronavirus hits operating earnings

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 07:02 AM PDT

    The company said it repurchased $5.1 billion worth in stock in May and June. Berkshire repurchased more than $4.6 billion of its Class B stock and about $486.6 million in Class A shares.

    The share repurchase is the most ever in a single period for Buffett, nearly double the $2.2 billion the conglomerate bought back in the final quarter of 2019. In fact, the amount is slightly more than what Buffett spent buying back Berkshire stock in all of 2019. Despite the company's record buybacks last quarter, the Berkshire's cash hoard grew to more than $140 billion.

    Operating profits for Berkshire fell 10% during the second quarter, dropping to $5.51 billion from $6.14 billion in the year-earlier period. The company also took a charge of approximately $10 billion from Precision Castparts, Berkshire's largest business within its manufacturing segment.

    Berkshire's investments in public markets gained $34.5 billion in the quarter. That gain caused overall second-quarter net earnings to surge to $26.3 billion, up from $14.1 billion a year ago. However, unrealized gains from investments quarter to quarter are volatile and Buffett himself warns investors not to focus on that overall net earnings figure.

    Full article on CNBC

    submitted by /u/ChocolateTsar
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    Department of Finance says they won’t proceed with Kodak deal unless insider trading allegations are cleared

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 01:05 PM PDT

    https://twitter.com/dfcgov/status/1291853877168558086?s=21

    News is from a tweet, here's an article about it.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/8/21360020/kodak-deal-government-pharmaceuticals-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine

    All I gotta say is lol. What an absolute clusterfuck this is going to turn out being IMO. Pretty clear there were some shenanigans going on behind the scenes. Hopefully they get the book thrown at them.

    submitted by /u/mrpoodles11
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    Any youtubers worth watching? Most are awful.

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:02 AM PDT

    Hi all,

    The most popular youtubers in the investment community are typically young, early to mid 20s, and the advice they offer is common knowledge, with almost none of it being backed by math and statistical analysis.

    Here is an example:

    Jeremy from financial education. I'm biased, and I really hate this guy. He doesn't even offer info that is taught in undergrad finance courses. All of his stock picks are based on common knowledge already built into the price. His only metrics are forward PE and debt to equity on the balance sheet.

    Also, Other kids in their early 20s who had some luck making trades.

    These guys make far and away more money from their YouTube revenue than from the investment advice they practice.

    Are there any youtubers who have a CFA designation, and have years of experience working in an investment bank on Wall Street?

    I swear, if a candidate like that started a YouTube channel he could dominate the segment...

    submitted by /u/Revolver123
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    How did Warren Buffett went from 140K to 1M in from age 26 to 30 as shown in this chart?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 12:25 PM PDT

    https://greatmusings.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/WarrenBuffetNetWorth-1-1024x589.jpg

    If he couldn't do that jump he wouldn't be where he is now imo. Do you know what he did in that period, where can I find his portfolio?

    submitted by /u/UniqueAway
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    Twitter, TikTok Have Held Preliminary Talks About Possible Combination

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 01:29 AM PDT

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-tiktok-have-held-preliminary-talks-about-possible-combination-11596925449

    Twitter has had preliminary talks about a potential combination with TikTok, the popular video-sharing app that the Trump administration has declared a national-security threat due to its Chinese ownership, according to people familiar with the matter.

    It is unclear whether Twitter will pursue a deal with TikTok, which would face significant challenges. A deal would involve TikTok's U.S. operations, the people said.

    submitted by /u/finecom
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    Intel CEO bought $400k of Intel stock & upcoming Tiger Lake

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:10 AM PDT

    Apparently he bought the dip with an average price of $50/share, which makes today price look like a good deal. This makes me wonder if he believes that Intel will recover from its infamous 7nm delay announcement. It's almost like he wants to get the worst news out first, and any good news after that will sound like a great news. There will be a presentation in Aug 13 by Intel chief architect about its new Tiger Lake, which is said to be launch in Sep 2. And it is said that they plan to ramp up production of Tiger Lake by 40% more than previously intended. It sounds to me that Intel is betting big on Tiger Lake. Based on recent benchmark, Intel i7-1165G7 10nm CPU is 20-35% faster than AMD's Ryzen 7 4800U 7nm CPU in single-threaded workloads. Even though Intel CPU only has 4 cores (vs 8 cores in AMD CPU), it is only 6-17% slower than AMD CPU. So performance-wise, Intel 10nm CPU still looks pretty competitive against AMD 7nm. With deep pocket, Intel can price Tiger Lake lower than usual to stop AMD from gaining market share. Will Tiger Lake become a hit? I think there might be a chance.

    https://nonperele.com/intel-ceo-robert-swan-bought-shares-after-they-plunged/

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/15958/intel-schedules-tiger-lake-architecture-presentation-for-august-13th-launch-on-september-2nd

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/wccftech.com/intel-10nm-core-i7-1165g7-cpu-benchmark-vs-amd-7nm-ryzen-4000-upto-20-percent-faster/amp/

    submitted by /u/learner4f
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    I charted Value Line's last 25 'One Stock to Buy Right Now'

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 04:34 PM PDT

    I was curious to see how Value Line did with their 'One Stock to buy right now' videos on YouTube. Some of their picks were influenced by dividends and I didn't include dividends because I'm too lazy to figure out how to do that. I decided to just do the last 25 picks. If you want to use their subscription service, you can get free access through your library in the US.

    Results

    Conclusion: You'd be better off going with something like VOO

    submitted by /u/rabid-panda
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    ETFs/Companies for Clean Energy?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 04:06 PM PDT

    Hi, was wondering if anyone had any recommendations for ETFs or companies to look into that prioritize clean energy. Don't even know where to begin looking but do understand that solar and wind power is gonna be key with more countries having plans to cut emissions. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/ProtoTypeScylla
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    Are ETFs such as GLD and SLV tracking gold and silver spot price in danger?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 02:36 PM PDT

    I've came across several articles (actually some are apparently in a banlist here so I can't link them as reference)

    To quote:

    There appears to be no way out for the bullion banks deteriorating $53bn short gold futures positions ($38bn net) on Comex. An earlier attempt between January and March to regain control over paper gold markets has backfired on the bullion banks.

    An awful lot of gold bulls are going to be disappointed when their unallocated bullion bank holdings turn to dust in the coming months — perhaps it's a matter of a few weeks, perhaps only days — and synthetic ETFs will also blow up.

    To be honest, it was difficult for me to thoroughly understand what exactly is the risk for these ETFs from the article, and what is the worst case scenario they're describing for those who are long gold and silver through these ETFs?

    As for me, I'm bullish on gold and silver due to reasons you're probably aware of, and believe they have more room to outperform the market.

    I'm currently holding 10% IAU, 10% SIVR due to their low fees and relative high liquidity. Would you recommend another way to go long? (e.g. futures, bullion, etc.)

    submitted by /u/JYP_Scouter
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    Can't beat the market rebuttal?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 06:59 PM PDT

    From what I can tell, many investors fall into 1 of 2 categories. Either the 'modern portfolio theory' category or the 'value investing' category.

    My understanding of modern portfolio theorists is that they believe you can't beat the market, and you will do worse than the market if you try. Instead you should follow the market and adjust asset allocations to get the most return for the amount of risk you are comfortable accepting.

    Value investors often seem to believe that they can beat the market in the long-term. It requires doing a lot of homework and being very thoughtful, but if you do both of those things you can purchase good quality companies that the market is currently under pricing and hold onto them until the market eventually realizes its error.

    Modern portfolio theorists have a terrific argument that you can't beat the market based on 50+ years of active fund performance and just about mathematically proving that none of them do better than the market beyond luck and that, after fees, almost all of them would've made you significantly less than if you had purchased a low cost market indexed ETF instead.

    The rebuttal to the argument above is that mutual fund managers are incentivized to track their peer group and that they can't have several contiguous quarters where they underperform the market without being replaced. Therefore all of them follow the same 'safe' strategies to stop themselves from getting fired. Additionally, they are usually managing very large sums of money and they just can't buy these great valued small companies because they're moving too much money. Instead they have to buy large companies and their strategies are restricted. The value investors argue that an individual who is patient enough to wait out long periods of time where their portfolio underperforms the market and are dealing with small and 'nimble' sums of money can eventually outperform the market.

    This seems like a reasonable rebuttal, and one that would be extremely difficult to prove or disprove. Is there anyone out that who has tried to validate the claims that individual value investors can indeed perform better than the market in any kind of systematic way?

    submitted by /u/JeanATannen
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    Lost potential 20k

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 03:34 AM PDT

    Hi everyone This is my first post on reddit so here it goes

    A couple of days ago I stumbled across a share with a lot of potential and decided to invest in it. Sadly I invested the money too late because I wanted to buy the dip, the dip never came. And now I can't forget the potential amount of money which could've been earned and it actually makes me sick. During the peak I could've made like 60k extra.

    It has been bugging me for a long time and I wanted to ask for some advice on how to get over this feeling and if you had any similar situation like this.

    submitted by /u/BarePsFam
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    Which stocks to add? $TWLO $TDOC $SQ $DOCU $CRWD $FSLY $ROKU

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 12:48 PM PDT

    Several stocks took a huge pull back last week. I am looking to add some of them to my current portfolio but I have small budget at this point. I think all of those stocks have good earning but valuations were high and a pullback was expected.

    Do you expect a further pullback? And which stocks do you see have most potential upside?

    submitted by /u/miuciaxoxo
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    $NE filed for Chapter 11 and is now $NEBLQ

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:40 AM PDT

    Hi,

    $NE recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the ticker changed to $NEBLQ. $NE was trading on the NYSE, but $NEBLQ is now trading on the OTCMKTS.

    I bought shares, and I'm not sure if they're still available on my trading platform (https://hellostake.com/).

    What can I do?

    submitted by /u/MRCREEP
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    best invest app for non US resident?

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:17 AM PDT

    hello, i am actually living in united arab emirate for a month, i will be moving to turkey next month.

    i have some cash i wish to invest ( around 10k$ ).

    i already tried some apps but none let me register

    - trading212 rejected my documents for validation 10 time in a month

    - webull require US number

    - robinhood block me out and say its us only, not sure if using a vpn would solve this.

    what is a good a simple application that i can use without too much restriction, less fee?

    thanks

    submitted by /u/damienDev
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    Building a growth focused ETF portfolio

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:07 AM PDT

    Hey guys, I'm sure you get asked this all the time so it probably gets annoying but there's just so much info out there for someone new to the game to try and digest, there's a million different ETFs thrown out in every post and I'm struggling to decide what strategy I want to go with.

    I'm going to start with a $2000 deposit and chuck $1000 in every month. I'm looking at a very long term play here and as I'm still pretty young at 23 I'm happy to go pretty aggressive towards growth - im very risk tolerant but I'd still like to be quite diversified across different markets/industries.

    How many funds should I be looking at for an ETF only portfolio in the amount I'm putting in? I don't want to be too thinly spread out but at the same time I don't want all my eggs in the same basket.

    Is it a bad time to buy? Like I said this is a long term play so I'm not too worried if I'm buying at a high right now I just want to get into the market, is it worth trying to dollar cost average into them over the next few months or when we're talking these small deposits is it not even worth it?

    A couple of themetic funds I quite like are SMH and ICLN as I can see massive upside in these industries, thoughts?

    Sorry for the repetitive questions just getting a little overwhelmed by all the choice!! Keen to read your ideas. Cheers

    submitted by /u/Repsys1
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    Next stage of the recovery...

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 06:42 PM PDT

    I want to buy some aviation plays while the sector is down.

    My theory being that if the carriers remain solvent, which it is appearing they will, then, in order to be competitive in a recovery. They are going to retire all of their older fleet and continue to place new orders for new aircraft.

    I am projecting a shortage / bottleneck in aviation and aerospace production 3 to 5 years from now.

    If boom was a public company I would invest in them because I actually believe there's a big market for supersonic flight but I don't know of many other ways to play that market publicly.

    I already own some shares of SPR, RTX, HON and MOG but I'm curious as to what others think about this sector and if there's any value plays to be made right now. I managed to place some good trades on some home improvement stocks and rolled most of those proceeds over to this sector.

    I'm actually interested in Mitsubishi as well because I know their gas turbine business should benefit from cheap natural gas and more conversion of power generating capacity to that fuel type.

    I can afford to be wrong short-term, I'm just trying to picture in my head a post-covid world and who might benefit the most.

    FWIW, I don't want to buy carriers because I don't understand the business. If I did I would buy Southwest and that's about it.

    submitted by /u/beandip10000
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    Looking for an article about Jamie Dinan and socially responsible Capitalism

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 12:38 AM PDT

    Not sure if anyone know the one but it was about 6 months ago, long story short several people including Jamie Dinan said companies are going to have to start being more socially responsible, thinking more about people and the greater good than just profit and shareholder value.

    I've probably described this badly but does anyone know the one?

    submitted by /u/zascar
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    Gold and silver stocks

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 06:27 PM PDT

    With gold and silver going up is it a good time to invest in mining companies? I heard some expert predict that those stocks will go up. Is it better to buy the stocks or physical coins? I'm eyeing Hecla Mining, Franco Nevada corp, Kirkland Lake gold and Newmont corporation. If I buy now do I sell when it doubles? Just looking for thoughts or ideas. Thank you

    submitted by /u/vlonexthug
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    Questions about PDT rule

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 11:52 PM PDT

    I have about $18,000 of my own funds in my brokerage account and currently have $8,000 worth of stock held wjth margin, which brings my portfolio value over $25,000. Does that satisfy the $25,000 amount needed to make unlimited day trades or does the positions I Hold with margin do not counts towards the $25,000 limit needed? My understanding is that I need to have $25,000+ worth of equity in my brokerage account and it is not clear if I have met that requirement or not considering $8,000 of it is held with margin. I've been told two separate things. Please provide some clarification, thank you.

    submitted by /u/FortniteGod2k18
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    Forecasting free cash flow using a linear regression model. Alternatives?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 11:36 PM PDT

    Kind members of this community,

    Using historical 10 year free cash flow of facebook as a dependant variable and time as an independant variable, I created the following linear regression model:

    Summary of linear regression model

    The residuals are nicely symmetrical and the R^2=0.92 which is good.

    Here are 2 plots, one with 95% C.I.:

    Plot1 Plot2

    Using this model, it is possible to predict future values with a 95% confidence interval (C.I.), for example for 2021, this is:

    237177 95% C.I. [16954-30479]

    Using the future free cash flow obtained through this method in the discounted free cash model (data), I came to the conclusion that the intrinsic value of facebook is $165 with 95% C.I. [128-202]

    However this seems to be a far fetch from it's current price and from what analyst project the future cash flow of face book will be:analyst simplywallstreet

    They argue a fair value of $286. One explanation may be that simplywallstreet forecasts for 10 years instead of 5 and uses a lower discount rate, yet I can't help but think that this does not explain everything, especially when looking at what they forecast for 2025 and what my model forecasts (even the higher quertile does not come close).

    My question to the community is as follows:

    1. This methodology seems lacking when compared to analysts. Do you have any suggestions on improving it?
    2. How do you forecast your free cash flows?
    3. I have another idea I want to test: forecasting revenue, using net margin to calculate net income, then using net income/fcf margin to calculate free cash flow. What do you think of this?

    Thanks a lot in advance!

    Greetings,

    Pashtun

    submitted by /u/pashtun92
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    How are ETFs Taxed Compared to how Mutual Funds are taxed?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 11:06 PM PDT

    Confused about how ETFs are taxed compared to mutual funds. Mutual funds can generate taxable capital gains if the stocks associated with them are sold with gains realized. But how is an ETF taxed? I understand that an ETF is traded like a stock and so in itself its treated like a "stock" thats traded with no realized gains from selling its underlying stocks like in a mutual fund. But theyre still taxed. So how's it taxed?

    submitted by /u/zlaer
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    $LVGO Bullish or Bearish after Teledoc Merger

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:55 AM PDT

    I'm looking to invest into Livongo. This pandemic has seen a lot of winners and I think I'm late to the party, but telemedicine seems to be one of them.

    It got downgraded by two analysts post-merger.

    It's Q2 report showed beats in EPS and revenue.

    My main concern is simply why it's being downgraded despite growth of the company and a fruitful report. Do merger's typically cause a bearish outlook?

    This pullback post earnings seems to be a good entry point. I'm trying to do as much research before Monday and thought posting a discussion here would be valuable.

    Any advice or thoughts would be appreciated.

    submitted by /u/Chewie_Defense
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    VRS Special Dividend

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 08:02 PM PDT

    Verso has received a consensus rating of Buy. The company's average rating score is 3.00, and is based on 2 buy ratings, no hold ratings, and no sell ratings.

    According to analysts' consensus price target of $26.25, Verso has a potential upside of 102.5% from its current price of $12.96.

    Verso (NYSE:VRS) last posted its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The basic materials company reported ($0.99) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($2.73) by $1.74.

    Verso Corporation (NYSE: VRS) will pay a special cash dividend of $3.00 per share. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, September 17th.

    submitted by /u/mountainhb
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    Looking for stock/business intel sources...

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 06:05 PM PDT

    Hey investors, new-ish to investing and it's a million platforms to absorb news on business, stocks, etc. Curious to know if their are favorite places you go to for your personal source of truth?? I find myself looking in 20 different places and assume it's an easier way to narrow where I absorb info from.

    Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/wildcat4401
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    When are institutions required to report short sales?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 05:52 PM PDT

    I just saw a 13D from a hedge fund for 19.99% ownership which includes a series of short sales in the transaction history. I've seen a lot of these but never a report of a short sale.

    When are such institutions required to report short sales? Is it just because it's such a high level of ownership?

    submitted by /u/tossed125
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