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    Friday, June 5, 2020

    Stock Market - What stocks are on your radar for next week?

    Stock Market - What stocks are on your radar for next week?


    What stocks are on your radar for next week?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 03:18 AM PDT

    Th...this can't be real. Is the whole market a pump and dump right now?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 06:03 AM PDT

    Billions printed. Billions in zero interest loans. Unlimited QE. Fundamentals out the window. Trading has litterally become playing poker. Are we litterally becoming the next Zimbabwe rn? Someone please tell me that I'm reading this wrong and why...

    EDIT: well this got some attention, now if I could sneak a question in that would be really cool. I made a pretty good chunk of change off of M today, but in doing so I noticed that on the marketing data there is always someone with a pending sell order of like 100 shares for 199,999,000 why is that? Are they just inflating the price?

    submitted by /u/yotta_T100
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    Thank God I didn’t sell!!

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 05:22 AM PDT

    Long on airlines for the summer?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 04:40 PM PDT

    I'm thinking of buying some airlines like UAL and DAL and holding through the summer, sell in the fall. Maybe add in some cruise lines like RCL also. They seem a bit extended right now and I may wait for a pull back before taking an entry. Would love some feedback regarding this idea. Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Happy_McDerp
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    Made 18% gains after inversing yahoo finance boards.

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 05:36 PM PDT

    I am absolutely convinced that if you inverse the yahoo finance boards, you will find amazing results. Here's my how to guide:

    1. Find a company that has good financials or technicals (whatever you're into) according to the position you're wanting to take.
    2. Go to yahoo finance boards and post something that has a clear price direction bias but that couldn't be perceived as bashing or pumping (This company will blow up soon enough! ; This company is an obvious scam, get out now! ; I can't believe the amount of value this company has!)
    3. If you get down voted into oblivion, initiate your position accordingly.
    4. Set a stop loss in case they aren't stupid.

    So far, this method has boasted a 86.74% success rate and I don't plan on stopping.

    Happy trading!

    submitted by /u/wastefuldeed
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    Unusual Option Activity June 5th, 2020 - BHC, HPE, SABR, APA

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 02:44 PM PDT

    Welcome to another daily Unusual Options Activity post. Why do DD when you can see what other people are heavily investing in? A list of previous plays as well as resources are available at https://www.noeticoptions.com/.

    Recap – Congrats to everyone following the plays, you should have made out quite well today. The SPY ended up 2.4% but the previous plays on average well out-performed the increase on the SPY. ON and WY both had stellar days ending at 20.16, +6.22% and 23.42, +5% respectively. SU from yesterday also had a 10% increase. ZUO was the only one that did not participate in the rally, but still ended up green (mildly) at +.79%. If you played TECK, FLEX, or continued to hold NCR from earlier in the week – you also made out. Nice.

    Due to the demand for more classical unusual option plays these posts will now be divided into Unusual Momentum Option Activity and Classic Unusual Options Activity.

    Unusual Momentum Option Activity -

    June 5th, 2020 Option Activity Fast Facts –

    Highest Multiple over Daily Avg (with ADV >5k) – DD with 8x its ADV of 8,327 and 10k calls traded and 59k puts.

    Ticker with most contracts Traded – AAL 1.1 Million and 4x it's ADV. 571k calls traded and 536k puts

    Largest Put to Call Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – BKLN with 135.4 P/C Ratio and 40,746 puts and 301 calls.

    Largest Call to Put Ratio (w/ Option volume over 10k) – CDEV with 150 C/P Ratio and 36,520 calls and 243 puts traded.

    1. Ticker :BHC

    Spot Price : $19.24

    Company Summary : Bausch Health Companies Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets a range of pharmaceutical, medical device, and over-the-counter (OTC) products primarily in the therapeutic areas of eye health, gastroenterology, and dermatology. The company operates through four segments: Bausch + Lomb/International, Salix, Ortho Dermatologics, and Diversified Products. The Bausch + Lomb/International segment offers products with a focus on the vision care, surgical, and consumer and ophthalmology Rx products in the United States; and Solta products, branded and generic pharmaceutical products, OTC products, and medical device products, and Bausch + Lomb products in Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. The Salix segment provides gastroenterology products in the United States. The Ortho Dermatologics segment offers dermatological products in the United States; and Solta medical aesthetic devices internationally. The Diversified Products segment provides pharmaceutical products in the areas of neurology and other therapeutic classes, as well as generic and dentistry products in the United States. The company was formerly known as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. and changed its name to Bausch Health Companies Inc. in July 2018. Bausch Health Companies Inc. is headquartered in Laval, Canada.

    Special Considerations : None

    Next Earnings Date: 08/04/20

    Option Information :

    Today's Option Volume : 41,570 Average Daily Volume : 19,729 Multiple over ADV : 4

    Total Calls : 41,570 Total Puts : 1,957 C/P Ratio : 20.24

    Calls at ask % : 49% Calls at bid % : 18%

    Puts at ask % : 21% Puts at bid % : 8%

    Notable strikes : JUN 12 '20 20C – with 9.83k volume today. Jun 19 '20 20C also had 2k.

    My Impression : June 10th of next week is the Goldman Sachs 41st Annual Virtual Global Healthcare Conference. Perhaps this is a play for some great news on the conference. Regardless, the momentum is very bullish and I don't think this move is veiled by CoVID-19 euphoria. The call C/P Ratio and amount of calls at ask are quite bullish.

    2. Ticker : HPE

    Spot Price : 11.15, +.67 (+6.39%)

    Company Summary (from Yahoo Finance): Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company provides solutions that allow customers to capture, analyze, and act upon data from edge to cloud. The company offers industry standard servers for multi-workload computing; mission-critical servers; storage solutions; and solutions for secondary workloads and traditional tape, storage networking, and disk products, such as HPE MSA and HPE XP. It also provides mobility and Internet of Things solutions under the Aruba brand, which include wired and wireless local area network products, such as Wi-Fi access points, switches, routers, and sensors; software products, such as cloud-based management, network management, network access control, analytics and assurance, and location services; and professional and support services, as well as as-a-service and consumption models for the intelligent edge portfolio of products. In addition, the company offers various flexible investment solutions, which comprise leasing, financing, IT consumption, and utility programs and asset management services for customers to facilitate unique technology deployment models and the acquisition of complete IT solutions, including hardware, software, and services from Hewlett Packard Enterprise and others. Further, it invests in communications and media solutions, Hewlett Packard labs, and various business incubation projects. The company serves commercial and large enterprise groups, including business and public sector enterprises; and through various partners comprising resellers, distribution partners, original equipment manufacturers, independent software vendors, systems integrators, and advisory firms. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

    Special Considerations : None

    Next Earnings date: 08/25/20

    Option Information :

    Today's Option Volume : 25,896 Average Daily Volume : 8,542 Multiple over ADV : 3

    Total Calls : 24,591 Total Puts : 1,305 C/P Ratio : 18.8

    Calls at ask % : 31% Calls at bid % : 31%

    Puts at ask % : 16% Puts at bid % : 20%

    Notable strikes : Jun 19 '20 11.5C with ~14k vlm and 142 OI.

    My Impression : The ATMDigital 2020 Conference is June 9th. Perhaps some are expecting some news from HPE. A lot of the volume for the Jun 19 '20 11.5C came in after 3 pm. The C/P ratio is pretty positive. Could be a good play to buy the rumor and sell the news.

    CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY –

    These can be found on todays post at https://www.noeticoptions.com/.

    Summary :

    Quick note about ON : This stock would have made the list today, but it was already included a few days ago. If you are still holding ON, I'd keep your position. C/P Ratio was 56.8% with 51% of calls bought at the ask. This hit my 5% TP this AM so I am out, but it still looks like a solid play. The JUN 19 '20 21 strike had a lot of action today 11k contracts sold.

    SABR would have also made momentum list but I decided to include in the Classic UOA section. In my opinion it fits both and looks like a good buy.

    Both BHC and HPC are getting volume from conferences. This worked out reasonably well with FLEX earlier in the week. Buying the rumor and selling the news is always a good idea. If you are to enter any plays I would wait until after the open Monday because there is likely to be a decent pull back.

    As always, please visit my website https://www.noeticoptions.com/ . In the future only half of the plays will be posted here. I also have an instagram : https://www.instagram.com/noeticoptions/ which I will post on when there is a new post.

    Thanks for reading, enjoy the weekend!

    DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your own due diligence.

    submitted by /u/noentic
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    Full time Trader on the StockMarket

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 07:48 PM PDT

    I really want to start a trading daily and learn all about stocks and how to make a very good income monthly but I don't know where to start.

    I can't pay for any subscriptions because my parents don't let as I'm only 19 but they said if I make a good amount they'll let me eventually.

    What's the best way (not YouTube, because if YouTube taught you everything everyone would be rich) Are there any websites that have hidden secrets and very good tips?

    If any of this sounds weird sorry, I'm just new to this.

    submitted by /u/zachwilik
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    Airlines or Boeing?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 06:30 AM PDT

    So I've gotten good buy-ins with good returns on DIS, MAR, JPM

    I currently have 30% of my portfolio in an ETF.

    I know ETFs are the way to go; however, I'm young and I feel like I can take advantage of the prices for airlines at the moment.

    I was thinking either going BA or buying airlines separately like UAL or LUV. Thoughts?

    Edit: decided to go all in on UAL!

    submitted by /u/Trilliboo
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    Overdraft fees have forced the poor out of banks: Former FDIC chair

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 02:50 PM PDT

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overdraft-fees-have-forced-the-poor-out-of-banks-former-fdic-chair-175731270.html

    In 2019 Americans paid $11.68 billion in bank overdraft fees. Most of these fees (80%) were paid by just 9% of the customers, who are often the bank's poorest, with balances of around $350 or less, according to the Center for Responsible Lending.

    This tends to have a particularly harsh impact on communities of color, which the Center said are already disproportionately excluded from much of the traditional banking system.

    Overdraft fees – when a bank charges a customer who spends more than they have in their bank account – aren't new. But they are at least partly responsible for driving many people to become underbanked, says the Center — and former FDIC Chief Sheila Bair.

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    What is going on with HTZ?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 05:51 AM PDT

    Im so confused?!?

    I bought htz before they said they were going bankrupt and I remember the price dropping to .60$ now they are close to 3$

    Are not going bankrupt anymore?!

    submitted by /u/see1do1teachnone
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    Interested in the market, and invest but don’t know where to start.

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 11:25 AM PDT

    Looking for any advice on where and how to do my own research on stocks, things to look for good and bad. I've always been interested and kind of want to make it a hobby with potential to make money. Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/BrwnBoxDriver
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    I'm down $6000?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 04:59 PM PDT

    Hi, can someone please help me understand this? I have been using credit spreads for a while now and this is the first time I decided to just bite the bullet and take the loss on a T Call Credit Spread and just let it run until expiration. Well it expired and now I have a negative 6000 cash balance? Is it just because I "owe" this amount after the call was exercised and it will return back to normal on market open Monday?

    submitted by /u/CloroxSenpai
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    Been Investing in stocks for a few years now just as a hobby. Looking into options trading and have a quick question that I'm not understanding from google.

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 08:00 AM PDT

    Ok, I have a little bit of money I'm looking to play around within options trading. Risk isn't really a problem I could lose this money and be fine. I already have a considerable amount in some diverse stocks.

    Now to the question. If a stock is trading at let's say $1.50 right now and by the time of the expiration date of the call option, the stock price rises to $4.50. Would buying at a strike price of $3 or $4 have more profit/risk?

    submitted by /u/jakevaliant4
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    Insight on stocks to buy?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 04:03 PM PDT

    I have $250 CAD I can put into stocks, I just started last week and am very new to the stock market and am still learning. Do you have any insight on which stocks I should look into for profit? Should I go all in on one stock or split it in multiple. I'm looking at GTEH as well, I already have 300 shares of TLSS (I lost money on that) and am waiting hopefully for it to go up again

    submitted by /u/mysticalnipple
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    Thoughts on Moderna?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 12:11 PM PDT

    How do you guys feel about Moderna? Seems to be in the top bracket for finding a COVID vaccine right now - I've heard they've currently developed 13 potential vaccine models which are now starting to be carried out on an increasing scale. Reckon it's worth a small investment?

    submitted by /u/fannyfairy
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    Why did PILL fail to perform in the corona economy?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 09:32 AM PDT

    When the corona virus hit and the market started to fall. I purchased PILL at an average price of 17. My hope was that due to Corona the medical stocks will do well. But this ETF totally fizzled out. Why didn't it rise?

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PILL

    submitted by /u/know_not_much
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    Gambling on gambling

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 04:42 AM PDT

    New to the stock game but got in a couple months ago when sports stopped. Not sure what to do at this point but I bought DKNG, ERI, PENN, MGM, CHDN, and some other non gambling stocks. Have pretty much doubled my investment. ERI is a beast. Haven't sold any of the stocks above. Pretty confident things will go even higher once sports return. Thinking I should hold for the long term and see where sports gambling really gets too. Only invested 1200 so not life changing if I lose.

    submitted by /u/lordcommander55
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    Portfolio tracking tools - Newbie - UK Based

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 03:04 PM PDT

    I'm looking for a portfolio tracking tool for UK based trading with near real time data or 15 minute delayed.

    I've taken a look at https://www.sharesight.com/uk/ which would certainly fill my needs but has a real lack of real time data which makes tracking in a volatile market difficult.

    submitted by /u/youeee75
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    What is your next move?

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 11:10 AM PDT

    With the current situation: 1. BlackLiveMatters 2. US high unemployment 3. Covid-19 4. US China Cold war 5. China India teritory dispute 6. 600 millions China earn less than 1000Yuan 7. Fake Earning of Chinese Company (LK) 8. Hongkong Status and Finanacial status

    The world is facing so many uncertain, every day is bad News coming from all over the world.

    What is your next move for the investment in stock?

    submitted by /u/hermandotworld
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    Super Beginner Question - Please Help

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 08:49 AM PDT

    Hi everyone. Today's my first day investing and I'm confused by this on my e-Trade account so bear with me as I ask probably a very simple question.

    I bought 4 shares of American Airlines today at opening price ($21.25) it's currently says that it's up $3.82, but it says in my portfolio that I'm losing money and today's gain is -$5.42.

    How does it make sense that the stock is going up today, but I'm losing money?

    Thank you!

    submitted by /u/jknable99
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    What Stocks Are Still Banged Up? - Reallocating IRA

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 10:37 AM PDT

    Hey everyone, I am looking for some opinions on reallocating some funds in my IRA. I sold off a nice chunk of my tech stocks because they are already back to ATH and I am overweighted in that category anyway. I am eyeing up a few different individual stocks that I would like to discuss. Currently small cap/airlines/hotels etc. have not yet recovered and it almost seems too obvious to not go heavier in this area at least for the short term. I am looking into XOM/OXY, RTX, JBLU, BA (still plenty of room to run), IVR/RWT?, etc. Any others that you guys are watching that I can do some research on? I am very interested by IVR. It appears they are federally backed, and have an excellent dividend, plus they are trading at a 1/4 of the value they were before the crash. Hopefully this is useful to some who are currently looking for some value buys! Lets hear some opinions!

    submitted by /u/Bakerfish1717
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    [$GME] [6/5/20] "Despite Gamestop's irrationality over the last 6 months, there is rationality to the likelihood of a continued short-term decline."

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 02:23 AM PDT

    Historically, earnings have not been kind to Gamestop, and their upcoming report on June 28th is no exception. Below is a brief summary of GME's last four earnings reports, beat/miss, and the stock's reaction.

    Date and Quarter Suprise/Miss Stock Reaction
    (3/26/20 Q4) +51% surprise -4.5%
    (12/10/19 Q3) -916% miss -15.5%
    (06/04/19 Q2) +450% surprise -35.5%
    (04/02/19 Q1) -8.8% miss -4.6%

    Because in these last four quarters, long-term guidance has continued to deteriorate despite multiple earnings beats, there is a clear tendency for the stock to depreciate following earnings. Considering this bearish reality, there are four generalized scenarios I see coming out of Gamestop's upcoming earnings:

    1. Gamestop, despite speculation that digital sales have driven stronger-than-expected earnings (in light of in-store sales tanking), will miss expectations.

    2. Gamestop's digital sales will prove to be a short-term saving grace for the company, driving an earnings beat but a less-than optimistic forward guidance for the remainder of the year.

    3. Gamestop's digital sales will prove to be a short-term saving grace for the company, driving an earnings beat and greater forward guidance for the upcoming console cycle.

    4. Gamestop will crush earnings with their spike in digital sales, improve forward guidance and expectations for the console cycle, and potentially have laid the framework for their 2.0 business model.

    Based on earnings estimates, it is more likely than not that Gamestop will either miss the high bar set by analysts following their spike in digital sales (1) or beat earnings with no significant improvement in full-year guidance (2). In both of these scenarios, there is significant downside that has followed the stock quarter to quarter the last few years. If Gamestop can somehow leverage the COVID pandemic to create the necessary foundation for their revised business model, this earnings report could result in the short-squeeze bulls have been speculating about since January (current short float of 96.8%), but it is less than likely.

    Overall, considering that any sales boost resulting from COVID has been eagerly priced into earnings, there is significant short-term downside to $GME. We saw in early April that Gamestop is capable of dipping below $3.

    submitted by /u/imattractedtodcfs
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    Amazon multi year contract with slack

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 07:28 AM PDT

    I just read that amazon is in a multi year contract with slack. So all Amazon corporation will be using slack. It will also be incorporated into AWS services. Do you think Amazon will use slack not only to compete with Microsoft teams, but to turn it into a CRM to also compete with salesforce? What could this mean for slacks stock? I dont get why its going down? Earnings report was better than projections. Is it a good idea to make an investment into slack right now?

    submitted by /u/rhcsa2019
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    Rhythm Pharmaceuticals is Undervalued on the Verge of Inflection Points, Offering up to 150% Upside

    Posted: 05 Jun 2020 04:59 PM PDT

    Summary: Earlier this month, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RYTM) filed an NDA for setmelanotide (a MC4R agonist) for the treatment of POMC and LEPR deficiency obesity, receiving a priority review and 11/27/2020 PDUFA date. POMC and LEPR deficiency obesity are extremely rare (100 - 500 and 500 - 2000 patients in the U.S., respectively) and severe disorders that result in exponential weight gain that cannot be reversed through diet, exercise, or current therapies. RYTM's setmelanotide development program is rounded out with an additional pivotal P3 trial in Bardet-Biedl Syndrome (BBS) and Alstrom Syndrome (AS) (primary completion: 06/30/2020) and a P2 basket trial across 6 other genetically-defined rare obesity disorders implicating the MC4R pathway (see below diagram). Setmelanotide has demonstrated clinically meaningful weight loss in trials to date and we expect FDA approval in POMC and LEPR (~90% probability). We assign the BBS and AS program ~80% probability of P3 success and ~90% probability of approval (~70% cumulative probability of technical and regulatory success (PTRS)) given proof of concept from POMC and LEPR pivotal trials and positive P2 data in BBS and AS. Cumulatively, we are expecting setmelanotide to drive a $750 - 1,350M global (U.S. + EU) peak sales opportunity ($590 - 800M PTRS-adjusted) depending on indication expansion. We believe this supports a valuation of $1.6 - 2.2B using a peak sales multiplier of 2.5 - 3x, representing ~145% upside over the current ~$890M market cap.

    Figure Taken From Rhythm Corporate Presentation (May 2020)

    Key Takeaways

    • RYTM's lead asset setmelanotide is anticipated to secure its first FDA approvals by November 2020 and possesses cumulative blockbuster sales potential across rare MC4R-associated genetic obesities.
    • Positive pivotal data in lead indications POMC and LEPR and strong P2 data in BSS and AS provides clinical evidence of the therapeutic benefit of MC4R agonism in this pathway, mitigating development risk for follow-on indications. Prior research we've conducted with physicians managing obese patients indicated that ≥10% weight loss from baseline is considered a highly potent effect: setmelanotide demonstrated an average of 25.4% and 12.4% weight loss in POMC and LEPR pivotal trials, respectively.
    • We forecast the cumulative setmelanotide peak sales to reach $1.3B ($800M PTRS-adjusted). Current pivotal programs (POMC, LEPR, BBS, and AS) alone collectively drive a ~$750M (~$590M PTRS-adjusted) peak opportunity, with the P2 indications contributing the additional $570M (~$200M PTRS-adjusted).
    • We therefore assign RYTM a $1.6 - 2.2B PTRS-adjusted valuation using a peak sales multiple of 2.5 - 3x, offering ~145% upside against a current market cap of ~$890 M.
    • As with all orphan drugs, commercial success will hinge on RYTM's ability to shift clinical practice and drive patient testing and identification, and we are reassured through the efforts RYTM has already made to engage patient advocacy groups and clinicians.

    Key Stock Drivers:

    • Late-stage asset in an area of high unmet need: Genetically-driven obesities are associated with high clinical unmet need given the clinical, social, and familial impacts of extreme obesity and lack of efficacious interventions today. An FDA-approved drug would therefore be anticipated to drive high clinical demand and benefit from favorable pricing and access.
    • Positive pivotal trial data and orphan designation confer high probability of approval: After one year, 8/10 POMC and 5/11 LEPR patients in pivotal trials achieved ≥10% weight loss from baseline, with an average weight loss of 25.4% (70.2 lbs) and 12.4% (36.8 lbs) in the POMC and LEPR trials, respectively. We thus predict a high probability (≥90%) of FDA approval by the November PDUFA date. Furthermore, these data help to validate that modulation of the MC4R pathway with setmelanotide is therapeutically useful, derisking RYTM's other setmelanotide trials (BBS, AS, and others).
    • Multiple near-term inflection points: Key near-term inflection points include setmelanotide's November 2020 PDUFA date, topline P3 readout for BBS and AS in 4Q20 or 1Q21, and an update from the P2 basket trial in other MC4R-associated rare genetic obesities. Beyond setmelanotide, RYTM also reported plans to file an IND for RM-853 for Prader-Willi Syndrome by 2020 EOY.
    • We forecast a $750 - 1,350M peak sales opportunity (PTRS-adjusted $590 - 800M) for setmelanotide, supporting a $1.6 - 2.2B PTRS-adjusted valuation: POMC and LEPR together represent a ~$230M (~$210M PTRS-adjusted) peak opportunity, with BBS and AS contributing ~$530 M (~$385 M PTRS-adjusted) and P2 indications adding an additional ~$570M (~$200M PTRS-adjusted).

    Key Stock Risks:

    • Regulatory risk, while limited, exists given small clinical trials: While we do not consider setmelanotide's small clinical trials to be a barrier to approval given precedent in orphan drug development, we acknowledge that the FDA may balk at the low number of treated patients and mandate additional data. However, even if this is the case, we hypothesize that the most likely outcome would be a conditional approval and required post-marketing study.
    • Identifying and activating patients for treatment will be challenging: Genetic testing for these indications is extremely low due to the absence of an approved therapy. As with most orphan drug developers, RYTM will have to invest extensively in clinician and patient awareness and access to testing to drive identification of therapy-eligible patients. This substantially increases the execution risk for setmelanotide even if regulatory approval is obtained. RYTM is laying the foundation for these critical efforts through relationships with disease-specific patient advocacy groups, putting medical teams in the field to engage clinicians, and sponsoring a genetic testing program for rare obesities. Nonetheless, patient identification likely presents the greatest downside risk for RYTM.
    • Reported epidemiology may be inaccurate: As with many orphan diseases, the epidemiology for setmelanotide's target indications is far from definitively understood. Therefore, there is the risk that the sources used significantly overestimate the total addressable population.
    • Public and political pressure on drug pricing: setmelanotide, as an orphan drug, is expected to carry a high per-patient annual price. While historically orphan drug pricing has been extremely favorable, increased public scrutiny and "sticker shock" may constrain pricing potential in the future. We and other analysts forecast a launch price of $350 K / year in the U.S., in-line with many chronic orphan drugs, which we do not anticipate will trigger any broader scrutiny at launch given the small patient populations. However, the risk does exist that setmelanotide gets caught up in the larger conversation around value and cost-effectiveness, particularly in ex-U.S. markets.

    Disclosure:

    We, WX Capital, a team of ex-biotech consultants, own shares of Rhythm Pharmaceuticals. This article expresses our own opinions, not Rhythm Pharmaceuticals' or any other party's opinion. We are not receiving compensation for this report. We do not have a business relationship with the company mentioned in this report.

    submitted by /u/boccherini-trader
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