Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020.
Stocks could be stuck in a range until there's more proof reopenings are reviving the economy - (Source)
Coming off a volatile week, analysts expect stocks to continue navigating choppy trading as investors try to build a view of what the economy will look like once states reopen.
Recent data on April employment and consumer spending show the worst declines in post-World War II America. More data in the coming week may reveal how the housing market fared in April, after the economy abruptly fell off a cliff when states shut down their economies in the second half of March.
Investors' focus will also be on the government stimulus programs to help the economy and markets get through the coronavirus crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, as it reviews the government's trillions in spending to help the economy, businesses and individuals. An interview with Powell will also air on "60 Minutes" Sunday night.
Earnings season is winding down but there are a number of reports from major retailers, like Walmart and Target, which should show that the big box stores and discounters are making out better than other retailers as consumers halted many discretionary purchases and moved more shopping online.
The S&P 500 was down nearly 2.3%, in its worst week since March 20. The S&P ended at 2,863. The Dow was off about 2.6% for the week, in its worst week since April 3. It finished the week at 23,598. The Nasdaq also had its worst week since April 3.
Home sweet home
"Housing is going to be important in that you'll see the chilling effect that Covid has had on housing as well, less on construction than on sales, but on both," said Diane Swonk, chef economist at Grant Thornton. "That's going to be an issue. One of the key things we're watching going forward is the credit market and housing. There's been a real tightening of credit because of the servicers."
Swonk said the mortgage servicers are caught in the middle between the banks and people who aren't making their payments. She said it has been impacting lending. "That's something we cannot afford. Housing was on a tear before, and it has to pull us out of this," she said.
Retail sales were down 16.4% in April, and there was an unevenness of performance across the sector. The only positive category was online shopping, up 8.4%. Clothing and accessories, the types of things department stores sell, fell by 78.8% in April. Building materials and garden equipment were down just 3.5%, and that could help Home Depot and Lowe's which report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
"Market reactions to the data have been somewhat muted," said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. He said stocks on Friday were reacting negatively to threats from China that U.S. companies could be targeted if the U.S. does not ease up on Huawei. "The markets right now don't need another reason to be pessimistic. It seems like both the bond market and stock market are getting a little tired. Both markets are looking for the next catalyst."
Solvency concerns
The Fed has been given generally high marks for keeping markets liquid, but analysts say they are now more worried about the solvency of companies.
"There's an interesting kind of threshold here as we're approaching three months stay at homes or shelter in place. We're moving from a liquidity challenge, which the Fed helped us address, to a solvency challenge," said Michael Arone, chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors. He said unpaid bills start to pile up and default rates rise on credit cards and mortgages.
"The longer this goes on, the harder for folks to make those payments. That's why states are eager to open even if it has some risks," Arone said.
The Fed on Friday said the pandemic poses severe risks to businesses of all sizes and millions of households. It said there could be a sharp rise in defaults as households struggle to pay bills.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, said the Federal Reserve has removed worries about liquidity with its facilities and asset purchases. "The reality is the solvency issue which is the bigger focus of the economy and they go hand in hand with the employment issues as things that have to be addressed at some point," he said. "Look out over the next two months, the solvency issues are based on how the economy reopens and how that medical progress looks."
Emanuel said the Fed's corporate bond program has helped companies refinance and clean up their balance sheet so if insolvencies become a big problem it would not be until next year. He said how the economy reopens over the next few months will determine what happens.
"The numbers are out in front of us. We do believe based on what we're seeing so far, this is the trough of every reading we're seeing. We do believe things are going to get better. We don't have reason to believe that's not the case," he said.
Emanuel said the reopenings would be graded as a 'B' of 'B+' based on how they appear to be going so far, including the infection rates. Nearly all states have resumed some level of activity.
But the market will continue to be choppy until there is more medical progress, such as a vaccine. In a sense, the market depends on science more than ever, Emanuel said.
"If all of a sudden, we have a commercially viable vaccine in the first half of next year that's going to be injected into peoples' arms prior to, or well before the fall of 2021, then I do think you could make the argument the market is potentially going to hit new all time highs," Emanuel said.
Range bound
For now though, he sees the market as range bound, and the S&P 500 is currently about in the middle of it.
"We have been very adamant about the definition of this market as being neither bull nor bear. It's bounded by the 200-day moving average on the top, which is basically 3,000 and the 200-week moving average on the bottom which is 2,667 right now," said Emanuel.
Arone agrees stocks are going to be choppy, and could react to friction. He said one source of friction is the disagreement over state reopenings, between people who want to see a reopening and those that fear a new outbreak. He said there is also friction between Republicans and Democrats.
"I think until we get clarity that the economy is open and without incident and some of these economic numbers are improving, I think the market is going to remain choppy," he said.
Emanuel said it makes sense for the market to remain in a sideways range while different issues are resolved.
"On a valuation basis, the market is expensive but it's not so expensive if you assume this economic period is going to be over in a couple of quarters," Emanuel said. "If you return to growth in the third and fourth quarter which we don't necessarily know if that's going to be robust, but we expect it to be better next year."
He said he expects a recovery to be more shaped like a bathtub, than like a V or a U, meaning it would be elongated on the bottom before an upturn.
"Part of what actually supports the market is this abject negativity. When everyone is already pessimistic the presumption is they've already done a lot of their selling so there isn't a ton of fuel for the downside there," said Emanuel.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Retail Sales Telling the Economy's Story
Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records in 1992.
The year-over-year decline of more than -21.6% has already topped the -11.5% seen during depths of the financial crisis, as shown in the accompanying chart. But there are hints that the decline has been heavily influenced by store closures rather than shoppers tightening their belts, and that might bode well for the future as the economy gradually starts to open up.
"One of the reasons for the major decline in retail sales is simply because many businesses are closed," said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. "As the economy slowly opens back up, retail sales should bounce back, as pent-up demand is there"
For the past two months, the economy experienced an 89% decline in apparel sales and a 59.2% decline in restaurant sales. These numbers capture the effects of businesses closing. The one area of the retail sales numbers that has done relatively well? Groceries had a record April as consumers stocked up and continued to show some strength in May.
While it will take time for retail sales to get back to normal, several factors are in play that should help support retail activity as the economy opens up. Pent-up demand is increasingly evident. Fiscal stimulus should help preserve incomes. And consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, with credit card debt declining the most in decades in March. While weakness will continue, April data may be the low point for retail sales, with good prospects for some strength in the second half of the year. A return to full strength will ultimately depend on the progress doctors and scientists make in limiting the dangers from COVID-19, but even the gradual opening up of the economy may show retail sales numbers starting to stabilize as early as next month.
How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?
As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press).
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P 500 Index recently eclipsed 20, which is overvalued based on historical averages and at the highest level since the tech bubble in the late 1990s.
While stocks look expensive on this metric—one of the reasons why we expect a correction of perhaps 10% from the April 29 highs—valuations may be getting too much attention.
"Stocks look overvalued based on earnings estimates for the next year, which will probably fall further," said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. "While the return to 2019's earnings levels may still be two years or more off, the potential for steady improvement and low interest rates suggest they may not be as stretched as they appear."
So how worried should investors be? Here are three reasons not to worry too much:
- Earnings will eventually come back. This recession has an end date, and eventually we'll beat this virus. So while earnings will take time to reach last year's levels, they should steadily improve starting next quarter. A vaccine could accelerate the timetable.
- Interest rates and inflation are low. A 20 PE with a sub-1% yield on the 10-year Treasury without a whiff of inflation on the horizon is not unreasonable. And Federal Reserve support isn't going away anytime soon. In such a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of waiting an extra year for earnings to come through is not high. Most of a stock's value is derived from the earnings the company could generate in year two and beyond.
- Valuations are not good short-term timing tools. There is essentially no statistical relationship between PE ratios and subsequent one-year performance for the stock market. Although we expect more volatility as the path of the economy and corporate profits becomes clearer, we also expect stocks to grow into their valuations as earnings likely recover next year.
Stocks are expensive on traditional PE metrics, and a correction would not surprise us. But given the environment we're in, valuations are not as worrisome as they may appear. The potential for a steady recovery in earnings over the next couple of years with low interest rates suggests that some of the valuation fears may be exaggerated.
Why Gold Will Continue To Shine
Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors.
"From COVID-19, to massive monetary stimulus, to historically lower yields, to potentially negative fed funds rates down the road, there are many reasons to think gold could continue its recent strength," explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, gold based for years before breaking out last year. This is a strong chart from a technical perspective and eventual new highs over the coming years could be quite likely.
Retest Possible, But Bottom Likely In as Jobless Claims Trend Lower
Initial Weekly Jobless Claims of 3.3 million, 6.9 million, 6.6 million, 5.2 million, 4.4 million, 3.8 million, 3.2 million and 3.0 million the past eight weeks, totaling 36.5 million, is astonishing. The good news is the trend is lower and as we pointed out in mid-April four weeks ago a spike peak in Initial Claims and an immediate precipitous retreat has been an effective indication of a bear market low over the years.
Today's chart, presented above, is from the FRED database hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compares the recent history of Jobless claims with the Wilshire 5000. (Gaps in the Wilshire index line are market holidays.) Clearly, the March 23 low and the spike high in Claims at the end of that week correlate quite well.
Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves
The preliminary read on sentiment from the University of Michigan was a surprising bright spot in Friday's weak economic data as the headline reading improved from 71.8 up to 73.7 versus expectations for a decline to 68.0. Even with this increase, sentiment remains near a 10-year low, so it's not as though investors are actually positive, they're just less negative. While the increase in sentiment was a bit of a surprise, it makes sense. April was a month where the economy was essentially shut down, so the impact of that sudden stop on sentiment was intense. However, now that things have started to thaw a little bit, you can't fault people for becoming more optimistic.
While consumers are feeling a bit better about the way things are, they are still extremely uneasy about the future. The chart below breaks down sentiment towards current conditions and expectations about the future. While the current conditions component showed some improvement, the expectations component saw further declines.
One question in the monthly survey that caused us to do a double-take was the question that asks, "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? And what did you hear?" In this month's survey, the index that tracks instances of unfavorable news mentions hit a record high of 141. This series goes all the way back to 1959, and never before has it been near current levels. The prior high for this index was back in the depths of the financial crisis when the index peaked at 133. There hasn't been much good news lately, but even this reading is extreme.
Investors Remain On Guard
In a post earlier today, we noted that individual investors still remain overwhelmingly bearish despite the equity market's rally off the March lows. Another sentiment indicator released by TD Ameritrade supports this view that investors aren't particularly bullish right now. The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors' portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index has been in existence since 2010, and in that entire history there have only been five months where the index was weaker than it is now, and that was from October 2011 through February 2012. That was also a period that marked a major low in the equity market and was followed by a nearly uninterrupted three-year rally in the S&P 500.
While the Investor Movement Index is near record lows right now, it has been weak for some time, and that weakness came even as the S&P 500 was climbing to record highs over the last 12-18 months. In other words, while investors are just about as cautious as they have been at any time in the last ten years, this conservatism is nothing new.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 15th, 2020
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.17.20
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
- $WMT
- $BABA
- $NVDA
- $HD
- $NAT
- $TGT
- $LOW
- $SE
- $BIDU
- $BJ
- $M
- $AAP
- $IQ
- $TTWO
- $MDT
- $OAS
- $BBY
- $MCK
- $SOGO
- $TJX
- $INSE
- $SOHU
- $FL
- $DNR
- $EXPE
- $ADI
- $PANW
- $CBL
- $DE
- $KMDA
- $SPLK
- $HRL
- $INTU
- $EXP
- $WB
- $NIU
- $HZN
- $TNK
- $TRVG
- $IGT
- $BILI
- $OMP
- $URBN
- $SNPS
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 5.18.20 Before Market Open:
Monday 5.18.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 5.19.20 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 5.19.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 5.20.20 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 5.20.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 5.21.20 Before Market Open:
Thursday 5.21.20 After Market Close:
Friday 5.22.20 Before Market Open:
Friday 5.22.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Walmart Inc. $125.94
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.12 per share on revenue of $129.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.88% with revenue increasing by 4.29%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $117.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,764 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $203.68
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Friday, May 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $15.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.32% with revenue increasing by 9.68%. Short interest has increased by 5.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $191.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,712 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.
NVIDIA Corp. $339.63
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.61 to $1.81 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 95.35% with revenue increasing by 34.68%. The stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.6% above its 200 day moving average of $225.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,739 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.
Home Depot, Inc. $239.33
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $27.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.22%. Short interest has increased by 17.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $219.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,370 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
Nordic American Tankers Limited $5.03
Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $81.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 525.00% with revenue increasing by 51.65%. Short interest has increased by 350.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.5% above its 200 day moving average of $3.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,413 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
Target Corp. $120.94
Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $18.77 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.29% with revenue increasing by 6.48%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $109.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,695 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. $113.78
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $18.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 2.19%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $108.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,626 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.
Sea Limited $61.96
Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $920.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.56% with revenue increasing by 161.72%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,969 contracts of the $64.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.6% move in recent quarters.
Baidu, Inc. $99.86
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.34% with revenue decreasing by 12.91%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% below its 200 day moving average of $111.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,957 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $28.43
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $3.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.77% with revenue increasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket.
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