Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Carl Icahn lost $2 billion betting on Hertz
- TIL: Peter Lynch averaged a 29.3% ANNUAL return over a 13 year with his Magellan Fund which went from $18 Million to $14 billion in that time (1977-1990)
- $1,500 investment into iMall.com in 1995. What now?
- Elon Musk earns first performance-based payout from Tesla, worth more than $700 million
- No, Homes Did Not Sell Like Hotcakes: “Pending Home Sales” Plunged 34% in April, a Preview of “Closed Sales” in May
- US New Initial Jobless Claims for the week: 2,123,000
- [Seeking Alpha] Uber Is Not The Next Amazon And Is Not Worth $60 Billion
- Recommended follows on twitter?
- Market almost at 2019 numbers, actual economy at 1920 employment numbers. Are we seeing another bull market sell off before another recession?
- Drone industry investments grow by 67% to record high at $1.2 billion
- $DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts
- Forex scam?
- From May 20 to May 27, The Federal Reserve bought $33B of Corporate Credit, $20B of US Treasury Securities, and sold $27B of Agency-backed MBS
- What r the most neutral and accurate financial news websites ?
- Stock Price Drawdown Analysis
- I used Python to create a chart showing daily market breadth from February onward. Take a look!
- Behind the Fall of China’s Luckin Coffee: a Network of Fake Buyers and a Fictitious Employee
- Clean power stocks outperform fossil fuel peers during pandemic
- What happens to Short Orders?
- economy good or 1 year deadcat bounce like 2008
- Resources for beginners
- What did buffet invest during inflation rising periods?
- Oil falls but remains set for biggest monthly gain in years
- Is it possible to backtest how a strategy that went long on the S&P 500 on opening when futures were up and shorted it when they were down performed?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 29 May 2020 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Carl Icahn lost $2 billion betting on Hertz Posted: 28 May 2020 01:11 PM PDT https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/investing/carl-icahn-hertz-bankruptcy-loss/index.html "Carl Icahn believed in Hertz right up until the end. And it cost him $2 billion. Icahn was the largest shareholder in Hertz, which filed for bankruptcy late Friday night". [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 07:18 PM PDT That's actually ridiculous that's more than a 28x gain in 13 years. You put in $10,000 and in 13 years you have $280,000. Most investors probably won't have a 28x gain over the entirety of their life let alone 13 years. You would need almost 50 years in the market with 7% annualized gains to reach a 28x. Most of the highest performing funds don't even cross 20% annualized over 10 years and the ones that do are not managing billions of dollars. Don't forget that this $14 billion of 1990 dollars which are worth about $28 billion of today's dollars. [link] [comments]  |
| $1,500 investment into iMall.com in 1995. What now? Posted: 28 May 2020 03:59 PM PDT Someone in my family invested $1,500 into iMall.com, which was the first online e-commerce sites. That someone forgot they had invested that, until today. What records are needed to trace this down? The company was sold for $565 million in 1999. Is this a lost cause or is there a way to cash in on this? Edit: Why the random memory? This person found a business card they made and printed to start advertising the space they bought on iMALL.com, and then just remembered they had invested the money. That's all the proof for now but I'm 99% certain documented proof exists in the storage unit! [link] [comments]  |
| Elon Musk earns first performance-based payout from Tesla, worth more than $700 million Posted: 28 May 2020 01:59 PM PDT
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| Posted: 29 May 2020 01:11 AM PDT Pending sales of existing homes of all types in April – contracts on houses, condos, etc., that were signed in April but that haven't closed yet – collapsed by 33.8% from April last year, after having plunged 16.3% year-over-year in March, with the index plunging to 69, according to the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales are an indication of what closed sales will look like a month or two down the road. So this is an indication of the direction that May's closed sales are heading into. We already know how pending sales in March translated into closed sales in April. Pending home sales for March had plunged 16.3% year-over-year. And on May 21, the NAR reported that closed sales in April plunged 17.2%, the sharpest year-over-year drop since August 2010, during the Housing Bust. Based on this relationship, closed sales of existing homes in May might be down by 30% or more, year-over-year. This will be reported in June. The plunge of the pending home sale index differed by region, ranging from a breath-taking collapse of -52.6% in the Northeast to a plunge of "only" -26.0% in the Midwest:
When sales volume collapses to this extent – no matter what the market is – it changes everything. It represents a market that has essentially frozen, with few buyers and few sellers, and lots of uncertainty. This is what happened in many other markets in the US, including otherwise very liquid markets, such as the wholesale market for used vehicles. In May those markets have begun to unfreeze. Market participants have figured out how to deal with the requirements of social distancing. Keeping everyone reasonably safe during a pandemic that has already killed over 100,000 Americans in less than three months is a primary objective. In the housing market, this has led to a change in the way business is conducted, including forays into accepting technologies, such as virtual open houses. This technology has been around for long time, but the pandemic pushed it into the foreground – like so many other technologies in so many other industries. And people are finding out that it sort of works. But the market is facing ferocious headwinds, including 31 million people now collecting state and federal unemployment insurance. More mass layoffs by big companies are announced every day, such as American Airlines' message to its employees late Wednesday that it would cut its management staff by 30%. Delta came out with plans today to shed staff via early retirements and buyouts, along with Chevron that said it would cut up to 15% of its global workforce of 45,000 people, and Boeing which said it would cut 7,000 workers. Just one days' worth of work, so to speak. These are not restaurant jobs. These are jobs that come with good paychecks and benefits. And this constant flow of announcements does two things: It creates uncertainty among potential home buyers that kept their jobs; and it removed potential home buyers from the market that have lost their jobs. This is a gigantic unemployment crisis, interspersed with a tsunami of bankruptcy filings, of even large companies such as Hertz, each accompanied by more layoffs. Eventually – next week or next month or whenever – the job losses will end as more workers will return to work, and employment will start to rise, but from abysmally low levels, and even after rising for a while, employment will still be abysmally low – just less abysmally low. So the housing market – in terms of sales volume – has two separate things to deal with: One, the issues around keeping buyers, sellers, brokers, and others safe. The industry is addressing these issues in multiple ways, and is harnessing technologies to overcome the issues, and there is progress, and more deals are happening. Two, the employment crisis that has already taken millions of potential buyers off the market. Even people who return to work after a stint on unemployment cannot instantly turn into homebuyers because it's hard to get a mortgage, right after having been unemployed. So volume will pick up some because the immediate issues of the pandemic are being dealt with successfully by the industry; but volume will not return to normal levels until employment has returned to normal levels – and having lost over 30 million jobs so far, this is just going to take a while. source: wolfstreet [link] [comments]  |
| US New Initial Jobless Claims for the week: 2,123,000 Posted: 28 May 2020 05:36 AM PDT Initial Jobless Claims: Survey: 2,100,000 Actual: 2,123,000 Prior Week: 2,438,000 Prior Week Revised: 2,446,000 Continuing Jobless Claims: Survey: 25,680,000 Actual: 21,052,000 Prior Week: 25,073,000 Prior Week Revised: 24,912,000 Total Jobless claims in the last 10 weeks: 40,700,000 [link] [comments]  |
| [Seeking Alpha] Uber Is Not The Next Amazon And Is Not Worth $60 Billion Posted: 28 May 2020 10:05 PM PDT https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350604-uber-is-not-next-amazon-and-is-not-worth-60-billion
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| Recommended follows on twitter? Posted: 29 May 2020 03:51 AM PDT Does anyone know any good accounts/people to follow on Twitter who talk about investing (not trading)? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 09:55 AM PDT A lot of the growth in the last part of 2019 is said to be just the selling not actual growth, are we seeing the same thing right now? If it is a artificial prop up (both inflation and in the market) when will the market stabilize with what the economic is actually doing? [link] [comments]  |
| Drone industry investments grow by 67% to record high at $1.2 billion Posted: 28 May 2020 05:25 AM PDT
Any of you would consider investing in DJI incase they go public? Obviously this year is fairly uncertain due to coronavirus and could force few companies to go public in order to raise more money. [link] [comments]  |
| $DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts Posted: 28 May 2020 12:30 PM PDT DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman's announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn't seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either. Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings' stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I'm already in on the long term bear case with Nov '20, Dec '20 and Jan '21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is. For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post. The company's Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let's look further at revenue growth though. I found it very interesting that the company led with "30% revenue growth" when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job. The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus' impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 '19, that's big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech's drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half. Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I'm going to ignore the "EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted" multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps. At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven't been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The "High Growth Consumer Internet" category that they selected is at 8.1x and "EU Sportsbook Operators" at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn't high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50. I know what you're going to say: "this is all about more states allowing sports betting." Fine, let's look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings' current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let's us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let's then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company's current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter's revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Don't get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government's ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog. Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price. Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings' DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos' sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill's outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other. One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the "IPO" is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn't an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain. Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won't play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won't play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL '20-'21 season delays, lockup ending in October Just giving my two cents on how I'm looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going. Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 01:22 PM PDT This may seem like a dumb question, but.... I don't invest but some close friends of mine in college have begun too with good results. They have been for about a couple months. However, I was hesitant and a bit skeptical with how much money they were making. They recently invited me to a seminar to hear out what they had to say and explain about Forex. Now it sounded like a cool opportunity to learn something new with my friends and earn money. They make money off of forex but also u can optionally make more money when u invite others (which is pyramid scheme I believe, although they called it "multi level marketing"). One of them has made over $5000 in those couple months I believe. There is also a fee for an online website that offers lessons, tips, and seminars from people who have actually became very successful from forex (forgot the name of it), which is what they all used and consider it very helpful. The main thing they say is that "you get out of it, what u put in". One of them actually dropped out of college to pursue it full time and expects to be a millionaire before 30. Am I being scammed? (Now they aren't forcing this on me or anything, they just think it will be cool for me to join them. If I don't it's fine.) As far as I know, they are just unaware the kind of scheme they are apart of and are unintentionally scamming people. They truly believe this is a great thing and have a big passion for it. Although I just wanted input from people who may have been scammed, gone through a similar experience, or have been using forex for a long time. Edit: well good to know it is a scam, which I thought so just wasn't sure. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 06:36 PM PDT https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/ Scroll down to 4. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks You can see what The Fed did last week. interesting that they went from buying $1.8B to $34.8B in corporate credit in a week. Even though they are upping their corporate credit purchases, they are turning off the tap on everything else... EDIT: I will legit pay anyone that finds out the underlying purchases of their corporate credit facilities. [link] [comments]  |
| What r the most neutral and accurate financial news websites ? Posted: 29 May 2020 04:18 AM PDT |
| Posted: 29 May 2020 01:44 AM PDT Does anyone here use drawdown analysis in your investment strategy? I'm trying to come up with an averaging up (adding to your winners) investment strategy and one way for me to determine exits and cutting of losses is to see if a stock has draw down X% from the peak, taking the benchmark into consideration. So for example, I have found out, if you held GOOG since IPO, you would never have incurred a 25% loss from peak unrealized gain if you had an equal short SPY hedge. Now I am curious, is this a typical characteristic of a small company that's going to be big? What is the optimal % loss from peak threshold so you get to catch the FANG super performers from the beginning and ditch the losers? Perhaps somebody with programming skills can automate this % drawdown analysis for all stocks and come up with a conclusion. I would like to post a photo but apparently this sub doesn't allow it. [link] [comments]  |
| I used Python to create a chart showing daily market breadth from February onward. Take a look! Posted: 28 May 2020 10:03 AM PDT Have you ever been interested in understanding how many stocks are up versus down in a given day? Curious to know if anyone here finds this view helpful / interesting. I put this together over the weekend using Python. I pulled down all the tickers available on Yahoo Finance from the NYSE and NASDAQ to try and understand 1-day market breadth. Said another way, how many stocks are up versus down on each given day? And by how much? I created the visualization using a graphing library. Each daily graph shows a kernel density estimate of the 1-day % price change (shown on the X axis) for every stock in the data set. The green and red indicates whether the S&P 500 was up or down each day (shown as "SPX Change" in the legend). What's really interesting to see is how wide market breadth got in mid-March, and how it's now starting to return to normal. However, breadth / market shape is nowhere near where it was in February. Enjoy and let me know of any feedback! [link] [comments]  |
| Behind the Fall of China’s Luckin Coffee: a Network of Fake Buyers and a Fictitious Employee Posted: 28 May 2020 10:11 AM PDT WSJ:
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| Clean power stocks outperform fossil fuel peers during pandemic Posted: 28 May 2020 07:43 PM PDT Clean power stocks outperform fossil fuel peers during pandemic https://on.ft.com/2XIiUiD Here is the original study referenced in the article for those who want further detail or hit the FT paywall: [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 10:01 PM PDT What happens to Short Orders whose stop loss gets triggered but you don't have enough money to fulfill the order. Does it just get rejected for insufficient funds? [link] [comments]  |
| economy good or 1 year deadcat bounce like 2008 Posted: 29 May 2020 05:31 AM PDT is the economy going to eventually go back down since this is all basically market manipulation or do you think it will stay up and keep going up since fiat money inflation and stock market not correlated... or am i wrong... im just saying i have an m1 finance portfolio and dont want to invest when things are super high and then they fall to newer lows ik know no one knows nothing but what are your thoughts [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 29 May 2020 04:51 AM PDT Hi everyone I wanted to find out about resources (research papers/websites/articles/etc.) I could use to start learning about investing, stock markets, trading and the financial world. I have a basic knowledge of economics. I've heard that investopedia is a good starting point but is too simple. I request you to inform me of resources I could use to gain more knowledge [link] [comments]  |
| What did buffet invest during inflation rising periods? Posted: 28 May 2020 04:03 PM PDT With the amount of money all governments around the world are printing to work up demand, there is a looming concern over inflation rising. What did Buffet invest in the past during periods of high inflation? There are articles on how he picked companies during the 70s and 80s but no real information on specific companies. [link] [comments]  |
| Oil falls but remains set for biggest monthly gain in years Posted: 29 May 2020 03:38 AM PDT |
| Posted: 28 May 2020 11:43 PM PDT |
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