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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    February 07, 2020

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing

    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted: 07 Feb 2020 04:12 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive significant other?
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Musk’s SpaceX Plans a Spinoff, IPO for Starlink Business

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 10:27 AM PST

    Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to spin out and pursue a public offering of its its budding space-internet business Starlink, giving investors a chance to buy into one of the most promising operations within the closely held company.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/spacex-likely-to-spin-off-starlink-business-and-pursue-an-ipo

    submitted by /u/refpuz
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    Pinterest ($PINS) currently up 17.12% after-hours following Q4 earnings report

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:40 PM PST

    EPS of $0.12 vs. projected $0.08

    Revenue of $400 million vs. projected $371 million

    335 monthly active users vs. projected 331.3 million

    Average revenue per user of $1.22 vs projected $1.14

    I bought PINS right before its January 13/14th surge and I'm very happy to say the least, especially when you account for the fact that it was already up a respectable 5.02% at close.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/06/pinterest-q4-2019-earnings.html

    submitted by /u/rayan123425
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    A follow up to my corona virus post from 10 days ago.

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 04:37 PM PST

    Last week I wrote this post expressing some of my concerns with the short to medium term economic/market impact of nCoV. Here is a follow up at how the situations have evolved , and hits/misses of the predictions I made.

    Note: Same as last post, this one is also strictly limited to the economic impact of the virus, and I am going to discuss the disease itself from neither an epidemic nor pathologic perspective.

    Things I unfortunately got right:

    1. Supply chain disruptions: The extended and ongoing shutdown is impacting many players in the Chinese supply chain. Examples of companies being affected range from Apple to Nintendo, and probably many more considering Foxconn as a whole is being impacted, along with many other small to medium suppliers/manufacturers. On the manufacturing side we are seeing many automakers being affected as well.

    2. Reduced energy consumption: Oil demand dropped as much as 25% domestically. The longer the quarantine goes the more drastic this number will become. However what effects it has in the medium to long term isn't something I can predict at this moment.

    3. Drastically reduced domestic spending: So far we are looking at billion dollar losses to the Chinese movie box office, and much more to the entire entertainment, travel, dining and tourism industry. Small and medium businesses are being hit especially hard during this time due to the severe downturn in cashflow. Remember a small business still have to pay rent and salary even though it's forced to close. However domestic companies are not the only ones being impacted, which leads to:

    4. Reduced short-term revenue outlook for foreign businesses: So far many large foreign companies have suspended businesses fully or partially in China, including Disney, Apple, IKEA, Starbucks, etc. Apple has issued a wider range for the quarterly guidance due to the uncertainty of coronavirus, Coach's parent company Tapestry also expressed strong concerns, Yum has warned that the virus could lead to a Q1 operating loss, and Estee Lauder has cut its profit goals. Those are just some of the examples.

    Some of those reduced revenue likely result in deferred spending, and may even lead to more profit down the road (people end up wait and buy the new iPhone later this year, for example), but some businesses like dining/entertainment may or may not result in much deferred revenue. It's unlikely someone will suddenly drink more Starbucks after this period is over.

    Things I got wrong:

    Market reaction (or lack of reaction so far) and outlook: This is a major one. Despite the Chinese market crashing almost 9% on the first day of trading earlier this week (and hence stabilized a bit thanks to the $180B USD cash injection from the Central Bank), the U.S. market has largely completely and utterly ignored any of these fundamental changes. It seems like the current market mindset is that this is an outbreak that is no different from SARS or the H1N1 scare, despite the fact that the quarantine measures and economic/societal impact so far is literally unprecedented. The explanation to this could either be that there is a bigger delay factor in the market movement, or that short to medium term economic prospects are no longer strongly factored into the current stock prices. The latter could be the result of everyone being highly optimistic for the long term, both economically and with regard to this epidemic. Whether that optimism is justified or not is another topic for discussion.

    One big disconnect I'm seeing is how people are viewing the whole situation from China/Asia and over here. Over there my family/friends are now much more pessimistic than they were a week ago and the economic doom and gloom is definitely the common view, if not being suppressed by the government. Yet over here most people sees the whole thing as a non-consequential distraction and DOW is now at all time high. The reality may be somewhere in the middle, but I don't have the confidence to predict where it will lead to one way or the other, despite having a few guesses.

    Finally, I'm not making any recommendations to trading/investing. Personally the only actions I've taken so far have been selling some covered calls to some of my holdings that have gone up quite a bit recently, and starting a position in Bilibili (I love anime, and I think streaming/online services will get a revenue boom in the short term in China due to everyone staying at home) back on Jan.30th, which has turned out pretty decent so far.

    submitted by /u/cookingboy
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    Uber posts better than expected 4Q revenue, narrower than expected loss

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 01:25 PM PST

    Here's Why I Think Microsoft Is a Better Buy Than Amazon

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:25 PM PST

    Is there a cheaper S&P 500 ETF?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 06:41 PM PST

    I was wondering if there was an etf for the S&P that's cheaper than 300$. Or if there's something similar.

    submitted by /u/flash27_
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    $NOK for the win? Barr wants a US backed PE firm to buy Nokia

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 03:55 PM PST

    Not really sure if anyone is taking this seriously or not, but so far it seems to be doing well today and is up in the after hours. If this is even remotely true, then I think this could be double from here, but this has been talked about for over year to combat the Chinese in 5G development. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/voyeurXtrade
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    Large money market fund flows

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:47 PM PST

    What's your take?

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=q6wr

    2019 was all about the Fed backpedaling on their hawkishness so flows aren't a function of higher rates (see below), and coupled with this was rising asset (broad) prices.

    These spikes in flows seem to have happened prior to last two recessions, but Fed was tightening so not overly surprising you'd see strong flows in that environment.

    Also wondering if this may be a function of heavy marketing by FIs promoting higher yields on MMF versus average rate at a bank, etc.

    submitted by /u/NegativeTangibleBook
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    Why is the company applying for "normal course issuer bid" on tsxv-likely to be bought by larger company ?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:48 PM PST

    I have shares in a small company "petroshale " stock symbol psh on the tsx and they were granted a normal course issuer bid and from reading the article it seems the main reason to get this is if they were likely to be purchased by a larger company in the near future ? is this a good sign ?

    submitted by /u/macb1989
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    How much of Amazon's valuation comes from aws as opposed to retail?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 05:10 PM PST

    Red day today

    Posted: 07 Feb 2020 04:13 AM PST

    Seems lot took profits and I don't blame them. Red a little lets see how much discount we get today and next week.

    submitted by /u/jamesbondc
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    When do we hear if China is closed further?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 12:23 PM PST

    I thought it was Monday before us market hours, will it be Friday before? Got a bunch of microsoft and spy I was gonna keep in till tomorrow afternoon thinking we wouldn't see a drop because of China until Monday.

    What are you guys doing with your positions because of this?

    submitted by /u/griffinmalone
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    I was weirdly given the money to purchase 2 shares of BYND (Beyond Meat) stock.

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 06:19 PM PST

    My mother gave me money to buy BYND stock because she thinks it would be a great investment and believes in it a lot. I don't really mess around with stock outside of random fractional shares with the Cash App. So I took the money and bought it. I am by no means an experienced investor or really all that interested in becoming one at the moment.

    Is this stock I should just hang on to or how will I know when to sell it? I'm very unfamiliar with the industry. I'm pretty young with a decent job and I don't need the quick buck or anything.

    submitted by /u/Posting52525252
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    News of choice for investing?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 09:41 AM PST

    Barrons, MarketWatch, WSJ, etc. is there a "best one" to read everyday or are they pretty much the same just pick one and keep up with it

    submitted by /u/fishyman336
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    If an Ultra bear is considered a dragon (someone who sits on gold and silver,) than what is an Ultra bull?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 06:44 PM PST

    This isn't a serious post, clearly.

    I've been hearing the term "Dragon" lately: one so bearish about the economy that they don't trust in money its self. They horde precious metals and sit on them waiting for end times.

    I'm wondering what the term might be for an ultra bull? What traits they might have?

    submitted by /u/squeeeeenis
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    24 hours stocks exchange? is this possible?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2020 02:12 AM PST

    im current live in philippines and i am 2 weeks in trading(newbie) stocks. here's the thing US stocks open market in the morning. its around 9am or 10:00am??? so in my country is around 10:30pm. then yesterday i found out that there is a stock that open in my country 4pm. and it is "volkswagen AG" i look what country is it EUR i think this is Europe. then i check the GMT for Europe it was 9am. then i figure it out is there possible way i can create a portfolio that run 24hrs depends on stocks of what country

    submitted by /u/gerome0123
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    Most Annoying Thing About Stock Investing To You?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:30 PM PST

    Personally it's all the noise and no one actually explaining rationales. I sub to a bunch of FB value investing groups, and literally we get a post everyday about a stock that's like super popular like Home Depot, Walgreens, FB, Starbucks and people argue about whether or not it's a good investment...They are all mega corporations. Just buy them and expect slow and reliable returns.

    ​

    But when you bring up microcap or small cap stocks apparently every single stock is garbage and the only rationale is, "that high p/e bro." Like microcaps need high PE because they're in need of growth. I feel like conversing with people on FB is useless, like it's an echo chamber of people saying that they are so knowledgeable in investing, but have put no money down.

    submitted by /u/NobleAbsinthe
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    100k to invest, advice?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 07:30 PM PST

    I am 26, moved back in with family after selling home. No rent, no bills except phone, free car. I receive a monthly annuity income for life, but I would rather not disclose the amount. I am studying for CPA and finishing school, not currently employed. I would like to invest 100k, then take the yields from the investment and buy a home in 2 years. No debts. I am currently not interested in a retirement fund yet, as I already have a pretty solid one set up. I'll return to retirement in 4-5 years.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/the_underdog01
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    Some specific details about impending supply chain disruptions throughout China which will likely cause some major ripples in coming weeks. (We won't even have scratched the surface of global economic effects until after the 10th.)

    Posted: 07 Feb 2020 01:06 AM PST

    I of course cannot speak to anything definitive about the severity of the Wuhan coronavirus itself. In my own opinion from monitoring the situation over the past couple of weeks, I do believe the Chinese government is likely significantly downplaying the numbers...from sheer anecdotal evidence and their extreme reaction. But I also don't think this is an apocalyptic situation.

    However, I do have fair reason suspect we haven't even touched the tip of market disruption on this thing. Just want to lay out some the facts specifically related to the supply chain for you to consider in your own decisions. I work with several clients in consumer packaged goods industries that have suppliers in China. I've been a party to the direct communications with their factories and fulfillment operators...so a lot of this has been verified from first-hand sources.

    Here are some current facts:

    1. Starting with the elementary obvious...China is the largest exporter in the world, accounting for nearly 15% of global export trade. Not just end goods, but a large percentage of their exports are intermediate goods, which manufacturers around the world rely on as inputs of production. If businesses cannot meet production needs from China, moving production to another country is not always feasible if manufacturers abroad cannot get access to affordable intermediate goods.

    2. China shuts down during Chinese New Year every year. Production grinds to a halt, and global businesses prepare for this slow-down well in advance - stocking inventory as needed. That is a big reason international companies have not been feeling a huge squeeze yet. However due to coronavirus, the CNY holiday has been extended until February 10th. Most businesses will resume operations on the 10th. Already, many businesses relying on Chinese exports have been over-extended, and pre-stocked inventories will be running short.

    3. It is a well-known phenomenon among businesses who import from China, that immediately after CNY, production quality & speed often drops from their otherwise reliable factories. This is because many migratory workers don't end up returning at all after the holiday - leading to factories replacing them quickly. It takes time to train them up to speed & standards.

      According to reports from our suppliers, they and most other factories are genuinely concerned that many more workers than normal will not actually return on the 10th, due to virus fears or travel restrictions. This could lead to some immediate medium to long-term reductions in production capacity & quality.

      3b. According to our suppliers, many producer's management offices are working remotely for the next 2-4 weeks. This will give them a reduced capacity to respond to on-the-ground hiring, training, and quality control needs. .

    4. Commercial air travel to/from China has come to a near standstill, with 25,000 flights cancelled from Mainland China & Hong Kong. 45% of Chinese air freight relies on excess cargo space on commercial airliners. As of now, there has still been enough capacity to meet the lower demand during CNY while factories are dormant. Come Feb 10th, factories fire back up...freight carriers are expecting some major bottlenecks. This will lead to increases in storage fees, and inevitable freight price hikes. (a backup source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-china-cutbacks-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-squeeze-freight-capacity-1158101567). Airline cancellations are extended through March/April.

      4b. Airlines are beginning to see a reduction in air travel throughout the rest of Asia. More cancellations outside of China are likely in coming weeks.

    5. China's costs to import air freight from abroad (US/EU) have already skyrocketed by 3x - 4x in the last month due to decreased capacity. This is expected to lead to increases in manufacturing costs, increases in consumer goods costs, and reductions in retail sales. A similar increase is expected on Chinese exports in coming weeks.

    6. Many of China's ocean ports have already seen significant slowdowns in sea carrier movement. Many sailings are being cancelled, and shipping capacity is expected to be reduced substantially. Again, they've been able to meet demand so far due to Chinese New Year slowing production. But come February 10th, demand will increase substantially when factories kick back up. It is unclear if freight https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hits-shipping-as-china-port-traffic-slides-11580928711

    7. Ports & shipyards have same concerns about workers not being able to return - leading to further bottlenecks in fulfillment. If the virus continues to spread outside of Hubei within China, it its very possible some ports will be forced to shut down to regular commercial traffic.

    8. Nobody knows how long this thing will go on for. It could continue to get worse, amplifying the above effects. Even if it does not get significantly worse, there is almost no logical way this will be completely contained within the next 2-4 weeks.

    9. It is unclear if commercial freight companies will continue to operate at all through China if the virus is not contained.

    TL:DR Looking at the big picture, there is a long global domino chain connected to China's supply chains, and the first dominos have already began to fall. This is not conjecture or fear-mongering, theres plenty of data already showing it. Even if the virus was fully contained tomorrow...the effects of these first ripples will be felt for weeks/months.

    The dominos are only currently falling slowly due to CNY, which is why we haven't seen a huge burn yet. But come Feb. 10th and beyond, the speed of market effects is going to be amplified. Only in the following weeks will businesses around the world be able to realize how their shipping costs, manufacturing costs, and end-product pricing structures are going to be effected. And only after that will they know how their sales will be effected.

    China's exchanges are currently being propped up by large injection of capital from the Chinese government. This is a band-aid that could not help support the global market through an extended supply-chain slowdown.

    I'm not trying to be chicken little here, but these signals should be considered by all.

    If you think I'm full of shit about the markets...but if you get no other takeaway, it would be wise to prepare for possible price hikes and/or shortages of many consumer goods in the coming months. At this point its unavoidable as far as I can see.

    submitted by /u/DontMicrowaveCats
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    agnc dividend yield at 10.22% with 1 year change of another 7.93%

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 11:29 AM PST

    i actually saw this stock about a year ago (dec/18) and got some to learn how these dividends stock works with my brokerage account in my bank and its getting to the point that it will finally cover the taxes and fees i had (didnt get alot, just wanted to see)

    can anyone please explain how can this be going on for so long and still paying me?🤔 because basically if its this, or "the market" which from what i remember is aout 7-8% per year i dont see why i should not get shitload of this one

    (also a. its paying every month so its really convenient and b. assuming my <1% yield in bank deposits i should theoretically put all my spare cash on this one)

    submitted by /u/zeldi778
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    $TTWO & $ATVI Earnings?

    Posted: 06 Feb 2020 10:00 AM PST

    Ideas on $TTWO & $ATVI ?

    Red dead was massive release on pc and wow classic definitely has sparked interest again in blizzard. Earnings coming out after market. What do you think?

    submitted by /u/whiskieBoi
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    Facebook Bull

    Posted: 07 Feb 2020 12:28 AM PST

    Facebook's ad revenue is outlandish. Combine w instagram it's roughly $80B. It's more than TV and newspaper combined. FB Ad revenue has been growing 20-30% year over year. The growth rate is slowing but is expected to be 15-20% into 2021. That's all well and good (and priced in) but this is an election year. Not just presidential elections but many national and regional positions will be in the running. The mud slinging will get deeper than ever and with Trump possibly squaring up against M Bloomberg the ad revenue pockets are deeper than ever. I believe cable cutting is stronger than people think and FB and Twitter will be the battlefield.
    I scratch my chin and ponder if FB will be the center of election controversy (again), but I don't think it will affect the bottom line.
    So I'm making the case that FB will return higher than expected earnings for the next three quarters and today it's a buy opportunity.
    I'd love to hear your thoughts.

    submitted by /u/SkyHigh27
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