• Breaking News

    Monday, February 3, 2020

    Chinese markets plummet almost 9% on return from holiday amid virus outbreak Investing

    Chinese markets plummet almost 9% on return from holiday amid virus outbreak Investing


    Chinese markets plummet almost 9% on return from holiday amid virus outbreak

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 05:34 PM PST

    Stocks in mainland China plummeted about 9% on Monday morning as they returned to trade following an extended holiday amid an ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

    The Shenzhen component plunged 9.03% in the opening minutes while the Shenzhen composite fell 8.882%. The Shanghai composite dropped 8.6%, according to Reuters.

    In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.59%. The Topix index also declined 1.25%. South Korea's Kospi also shed 1.46%.

    Meanwhile, shares in Australia tumbled as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 dropping 1.69%. Overall, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index traded 1.39% lower.

    Investors will be bracing for the return of trade for mainland Chinese stocks at 9:30 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday, following an extended holiday amid an ongoing virus outbreak that has taken more than 300 lives in the country so far.

    The People's Bank of China announced Sunday that it will inject 1.2 trillion yuan (approx. $173 billion) worth of liquidity into the markets via open market reverse repo operations. The Chinese central bank said the overall liquidity in the system would be 900 billion yuan (approx. $130 billion) more as compared to the same period last year.

    "While this will be the largest single-day addition since 2004, it implies a mere net injection of RMB150bn as commercial banks are scheduled to repay RMB1.05tn of funds on Monday," strategists at Singapore's DBS Group Research wrote in a note. "The authority may need to inject more cash in the rest of the week via reverse repo and/or medium-term lending facility to soothe market nerves."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/asia-markets-china-markets-coronavirus-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-in-focus.html

    submitted by /u/n0tfakenews
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    China Oil Demand Has Plunged 20% Because of the Virus Lockdown

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 04:36 PM PST

    (Bloomberg) -- Chinese oil demand has dropped by about three million barrels a day, or 20% of total consumption, as the coronavirus squeezes the economy, according to people with inside knowledge of the country's energy industry.

    The drop is probably the largest demand shock the oil market has suffered since the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, and the most sudden since the Sept. 11 attacks. It could force the hand of the OPEC cartel, which is considering an emergency meeting to cut production and staunch the decline in prices, which are headed for the lowest close in a year.

    China is the world's largest oil importer, after surpassing the U.S. in 2016, so any change in consumption has an outsize impact on the global energy market. The country consumes about 14 million barrels a day -- equivalent to the combined needs of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K., Japan and South Korea.

    Chinese and Western oil executives, speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the decline was measured against normal levels for this time of year. It's a measure of the current loss in demand, rather than the average loss since the crisis started, which would be smaller.

    Beijing has locked millions of people in quarantine and the New Year holiday has been extended. Flights have been canceled and authorities across the globe are trying to contain the virus's spread. China's central bank, seeking to avert a sell-off when markets open on Monday, is taking measures to boost liquidity.

    The collapse in Chinese oil consumption is starting to reverberate across the global energy market, with sales of some crudes slowing to a crawl and benchmark prices in free-fall. Sales of Latin American oil cargoes to China came to a halt last week, while sales of West African crude, a traditional source for Chinese refineries, are also slower than usual, traders said.

    Chinese refineries are storing unsold petroleum products such as gasoline and jet-fuel, according to the executives. But every day stockpiles are growing, and some refineries may soon reach their storage limits. If that were to happen, they would have to cut the amount of crude they process. One executive said that refinery runs were likely to be cut soon by 15-20%.

    Traditionally during the New Year holiday, gasoline and jet-fuel demand increase as hundred of millions go back home, while gasoil consumption drops as industrial activity slows.

    The price of Brent, the global oil benchmark, has fallen about 14% since Jan. 20, when financial markets first took notice of the magnitude of the health crisis in China. The April contract extended losses in early Asian trade on Monday, dropping 1.3% to $55.88 a barrel in London. A close at that level would be the lowest since January 2019.

    Beyond the headline price for Brent, every other indicator in the physical and derivatives market also points to a weakening market. So-called time-spreads, which measure the price difference between contracts for delivery at different times, have collapsed -- an indication that short-term demand is expected to remain weak.

    OPEC Meeting

    OPEC and its allies, which include Russia, are weighing their options to respond to the crisis and there have been discussions about calling an emergency meeting. Saudi Arabia is pressing for a gathering sooner than the one scheduled for March 5-6, though it has run into resistance from Russia. The Saudi and Russian oil ministers spoke on the phone for an hour on Thursday and another 30 minutes on Friday, according to Russians officials.

    For now, OPEC has called a technical meeting this week to assess the situation, and the Joint Technical Committee will report back to ministers.

    According to consultants at Energy Aspects Ltd., OPEC is considering an informal proposal to deepen current production curbs by about 500,000 barrels a day. But there's no consensus on the idea, which was floated by at least one country. As OPEC and its partners are already in the midst of steep cuts, many analysts are skeptical on how much more they're willing to do.

    The most recent agreed reductions only came together after considerable diplomatic wrangling, and Saudi Arabia has already slashed production to the lowest since 2014. Russia, which has become the most important producer in the coalition alongside the kingdom, has typically taken some persuading to sign up to additional cuts. Still, if the alliance does agree to call early meeting, historic precedent suggests it will probably result in action.

    "Nothing concentrates a producer's mind more than the prospect of a crude oil price bust," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, and a former White House oil official under President George W. Bush.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-oil-demand-has-plunged-20-because-of-the-virus-lockdown-1.1383749

    submitted by /u/n0tfakenews
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    European Economic Growth Slows Almost to Zero

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 01:51 PM PST

    From NY Times: Unexpectedly bad data leaves Europe with little margin for error as Brexit takes effect and the coronavirus looms.

    From Reuters: French economy shrinks in fourth quarter as strikes bite.

    Italy's economy has also been struggling.

    Additionally it could be a big issue if Trump turns his eyes to Europe. Currently the US has a 2.5% tariff on cars imported from Europe. If Trump moved that to match the 10% tariff Europe charges on cars imported from the US, that would devastate the German economy.

    submitted by /u/VCUBNFO
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    China markets suffer steep declines as Beijing fails to stem panic selling amid coronavirus outbreak

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 07:44 PM PST

    https://amp.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3048648/china-markets-suffer-steep-declines-beijing-fails-stem-panic

    "All industry groups dropped on Monday, with transport companies and brokerages leading the declines. It is still too early to buy the dip on the broader market and investors should probably look to new economy companies that are expected to rebound first, according to analysts, including Castor Pang, head of research at investment services firm Core Pacific-Yamaichi."

    submitted by /u/kafetheresu
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    Why is Intel (INTL) so cheap right now?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 06:36 PM PST

    Intel is trading at around 14 times earnings and FCF with stellar and growing ROE and ROIC. They have a near monopoly, tremendous pricing power, and a very wide competitive moat. Why are they so cheap right now compared to comparable companies and the rest of the market?

    submitted by /u/mgrog
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    VTI/VXUS?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 08:00 PM PST

    I have 100% VTI in my taxable acct and 80% VTI/20% VXUS in my Roth IRA.

    Is that a worthwhile set up for a lazy investor? I add weekly to DCA.

    submitted by /u/MajinJuuu
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    How many of you identify a dollar figure target for every investment?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 08:29 PM PST

    I'm new to investing. I have a degree in Finance and am starting to build my portfolio. I am familiar with the basic theory of DCF valuation, and enterprise valuation.

    I guess my question is, how many of you actually calculate a $ figure you want to buy for, as opposed to simply identifying a strong company that you believe will perform well, and buying at market price.

    In theory we should be calculating a $ target price every time, right? Because price does not necessarily = value. Admittedly I find it a bit daunting. I'm interested in hearing from you guys.

    submitted by /u/_charge_your_phone_
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    My case study on Spotify: Their Past, Present and Future

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 08:16 PM PST

    Over the past year, I have been reading books and articles about companies that achieved success and there were some common factors in the success of all of these:

    A) How they treat their employees?

    B) How they treat their customers?

    C) Do they have a vision themselves?

    D) Are they adaptable to changes? (and how they react to failure)

    Spotify is showing signs of all of these and here is my case study on how they can improve for question D)

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Spotify is one of my favourite technology companies at the moment. Mainly because of their customer service (shout out to their Twitter team). I would love to see this company grow tremendously in a decades' time. For that to happen, Spotify need to realise they are in the tech industry and not just the entertainment industry. They have the potential to be huge market disruptors (for record labels, radio channels, content-driven sites like YouTube and Netflix). Technically, they can produce, distribute and market their own artists (like Netflix). They could own the entire music industry. But I'm glad they aren't yet, as it could have some serious backlash with the existing record labels deals on Spotify. They would pull out of the brand quickly if they sense competition. So, I do like that Spotify is focusing on podcasts specifically and separately in 2020.

    This way, they are now competing only with radio channels (which are dying out already). Think of it in political war terms, if Spotify is the USA, then you wouldn't want to directly attack Russia or China, you would occupy smaller and weaker countries first.

    Once they become dominant in podcasts and produce original content (and live radio too!) which matches up with the revenue from the music streaming, they will have the leverage on their side to go up against the music labels in a few years time, and actually start buying off artists from them (imagine the next Radiohead album being produced and distributed by Spotify). Similar to Netflix, they don't need to be stringent, like movie production companies and large music labels, with the type of content the "audience will like". Eventually, it could come down to Spotify or Netflix buying out each other (or partner up, which would be a smart move for both). Spotify in music and radio, Netflix in movies and TV shows.

    Spotify has become a behemoth in the music streaming services. The personalisation of recommended tracks and the ability to create playlists are just fantastic and extremely user-friendly. Now that they have achieved this, they need to focus on other avenues that facilitate this, in the near future:

    1. A built-in Voice Assistant
    2. Spotify branded hardware (headphones/stereos/car speakers)
    3. Video option in podcasts (creators can choose to upload videos for their podcasts)
    4. Become a Music Label (final option, when they revenue sources from multiple other areas, as it would give them buying power)

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1. A Built-in Voice Assistant

    At the moment, if I use Siri or Google Assistant, it doesn't focus specifically on the Spotify app. I need say "Hey Siri, could you please play Weird Fishes by Radiohead". It will play the track based on what the first Google result is. If it's a YouTube video, then that's where you're headed.

    With the Voice Assistant built-in for Spotify, you can just say "Hey Spotify, please play the latest Joe Rogan episode". It will find the most popular one within its parameters.

    2) Spotify-branded hardware

    With the new Bose QC35ii, we have seen they have partnered with Google (for Assistant) and Bose is also testing Augmented Reality on its headphones.

    Spotify could branch out and partner with Bose for this AR feature. Maybe having a QR reader in the app, which you can use in a store to listen to albums by scanning the barcode, which would then play through the Bose headphones. This could also evolve to scanning any object in front of you, and Spotify will try to find a relevant track or podcast about that object.

    3) Option to include videos in podcasts

    The company has this technology already. When you play a song, you can see the music video on the background. Similarly, if I am listening to the Joe Rogan podcast, there could be a video uploaded which runs in the background. This would keep customers on the app itself and deter them from using YouTube to see the video.

    4) Become a music label

    This is the complete long-term option, which Spotify will definitely have to go through eventually. Not doing so would mean they will be stuck in the cycle of royalties and expenses.

    Once they have diversified in other avenues, Spotify will have the bargaining power to take own the music industry.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I like to research companies in my spare time and reading about entrepreneurs and their visions. With the right attitude, success will eventually be obtainable. By "Success", in this context, I mean not having to depend on others.

    GoPro is a proper example of what not to do. Trying to dominate the market quick by following trends is not the way to do it. Their vision statement was too broad, and they placed priority on sales, rather than staff.

    submitted by /u/MeLikesPineapples
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    Website that aggregates/consolidates analyst reports? Looking for HK, UK & USA.

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 02:59 AM PST

    Greetings,

    I am Theodore of Singapore (Not my real name). In Singapore, we have a website, https://sginvestors.io/analysts/stocks/, that consolidates analyst reports for Singapore stocks.

    Are there similar websites for Hong Kong, UK and USA stocks?

    Thanks.

    Yours Sincerely

    Theodore (Not my real name)

    Singapore

    submitted by /u/TheodoreOfSingapore
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    Trades with due bills??

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 08:53 PM PST

    I just transfer my account from Drivewealth to Charles Schwab. One of my stock holding is DD (which was DWDP prior to the company splitting).

    Once the ACATS transfer was completed, I checked my stocks holding on Schwab. All stocks from my old brokerage is there, except for DD. Instead, it shows I have "DWDP DOWDUPONT INC TRADES WITH DUE BILLS"

    What does that really mean?

    submitted by /u/maxtini
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    Question regarding index fund timing

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 07:21 PM PST

    Newb here. I bought some FZROX on Friday towards the end of the afternoon, as I saw that the price was going down. It was filled at $11.31 around 8:30pm. Now, when I look at my account, it says cost basis is $11.31, last price is $11.31, but Change in Securities Not Priced Today is -1.82%, which is how much it went down on Friday. My available balance is down 1.82%. What does this mean? I thought that I was buying it at the price that it closed at on Friday evening, so how would I be down the same amount that it went down on Friday during the day? Thanks in advance.

    submitted by /u/painess
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    treasury inflation protected securities futures

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 12:22 AM PST

    Is there such thing as treasury inflation protected securities futures? I have looked on various sites but couldn't find anything.

    submitted by /u/maraschinoBandito
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    Difference between chinese index and american etfs that track those index

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 03:56 AM PST

    Noob question: chinese markets were closed until today but the etfs that track them were open so there must be some kind of huge difference between them. Can anyond explain to me how this has an impact on the investor? Shouldn't etf track almost perfectly the index that they mirror?

    submitted by /u/TheFlavouredOne
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    Which one would you pick, if not even both ? [ETF´s]

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 03:47 AM PST

    (21, from Germany)

    So basically I´ve been looking to reallocate my assets into a more passive approach by just going 80% ETF´s. Right now I am 85 % Stocks and 15 % ETF´s but at this point I just have to admit to myself that I just wont beat the market. So I compared a few and picked out some with very small fees (Such as Vanguard or Blackrock) but now I am comparing two different ETF´s with very similiar returns in the past while fees are somewhat similiar. Which one would you pick if not maybe even both?

    1) https://www.justetf.com/de-en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09

    2) https://www.justetf.com/de-en/etf-profile.html?isin=DE0006289382

    Thank you :)

    submitted by /u/Ihavesevereautism69
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    Fundamental analysis - how to monitor important events?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 08:11 PM PST

    I wonder how you guys monitor events that could temper with economy?

    I am trading Dow Jones so I'm interested in learning everything that could affect its price.

    submitted by /u/jkpj22
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    Question on Call Options.

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 02:48 AM PST

    Apologies for my lack of understanding and terminology..super new to this. Over the weekend I purchased a handful of call option contracts. With premarket this morning, the strike price has already been reached. I'm using Robinhood, so the order is queued. My question is does the strike price already being met changed anything? Are the specifics of the contract locked in, even though the deal hasn't been executed yet? Hopefully I'm explaining this right. Thanks in advance for any advice or help.

    submitted by /u/Sangi0vese
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    Thoughts on Ford?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 02:36 PM PST

    Recently I've been converting a large portion of my portfolio into safe bet dividend stocks and ETFs. I'm curious what people's stance on Ford is. Why do they pay such a high dividend? What potential does the company have over the next 10-15 years?

    submitted by /u/Dabaus94
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    Tetra Bio-Pharma (TBP) stocks vanish??!?!

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 02:26 AM PST

    So i invested approx 200 shares with the company (TBP). A couple days ago, since markets opened on Thursday actually, i noticed that their stock price wasnt fluctuating (stayed at $0.51) so i checked up on google and it said that IIROC had temporarily halted all their trading (on the request of the company) because they wanted to ensure that its trading was fair to all investors... And now suddenly, when i go back on my account (WealthSimple) to check their price, it shows that TBP stock is N/A (and thus, that i lost all the money that i had with them).

    Has this occurred with anyone else as well? How is it possible for a company to suddenly stop exisiting/trading on the TSX?

    *Im a total beginner in investing/trading...so if anyone can please explain what happened and how i lost 1/3 of my portfolio in a day....id be really glad (I would really like to learn from this and NoT have this repeated again, so any kind of info/knowledge/advice would be appreciated)

    Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/A-Simple-Paradox
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    Buying VTSAX in Europe?

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 02:09 AM PST

    I am trying to buy Vanguard's ETF but both in Commerzbank and the Trade Republic app I cannot find this ETF, any recommendation of other ETFs that mimic the whole market or any other ETF that you'd recommend overall?

    submitted by /u/neothecat86
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    question about rate of return

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 10:14 PM PST

    lets say a fund or stock has some rate of returns

    1 year is 20%

    3 year is 15%

    5 year is 12%

    does the 5 year of 12% mean the investment made 12% over five years or 12% each year over five years

    submitted by /u/QueerWorf
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    Why is the corona virus causing the asian markets to crash?

    Posted: 03 Feb 2020 01:03 AM PST

    Of course I understand that an epidemic will impede business but I don't understand why it has been impacted so much.

    Can someone please help me understand?

    submitted by /u/melonfukr
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    Why is gold going down today

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 11:26 PM PST

    You'd think with all the fear and the stocks going down it would be a safe haven for investors, wouldn't it?

    submitted by /u/qtphu
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    Raw Land investing

    Posted: 02 Feb 2020 10:43 PM PST

    Would it be smart to start purchasing land and holding onto it as I feel like places are going to start booming due to the population rate.

    submitted by /u/Slagg1234
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