• Breaking News

    Thursday, November 28, 2019

    The Federal Reserve and the endless money printer Investing

    The Federal Reserve and the endless money printer Investing


    The Federal Reserve and the endless money printer

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 04:26 PM PST

    As many of you know, we have had historically low interest rates for a long time now. The Federal Reserve has printed money and grown their balance sheet to levels never seen before, and the US is running record deficits at the same time, during a supposed strong economy. This is obviously a cause for concern.

    I recently came across a CNBC video (yes, I know), and the guest, Byron Wien, Blackstone Private Wealth Vice Chairman, had an incredible segment where he explains this issue in just ~2 minutes. Worth a watch - https://youtu.be/C4QjDJuyfek?t=186. Even the interviewers were stunned.

    So what's the plan when the balance sheet expansion and QE4 or whatever you want to call it comes to an end? Buy gold? Buy Puts? Stay invested and average down?

    I'd love to get some discussion going on this. It's a real issue and not something that can be ignored forever.

    submitted by /u/LuxGang
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    Top 'ESG' Ethics-based Funds hold major investments in Saudi Arabia

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 06:40 AM PST

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-your-good-governance-fund-is-full-of-saudi-bonds-11574781431

    ESG = Environmental, Social, Governance

    Apparently they were included as a top 5 holding, because the ESG scoring system automatically excluded so many investments that Saudi Arabia actually appeared to be one of the cleaner ones fitting the emerging market bond criteria. However, ESG funds seem to own more dictatorships and authoritarian government assets and debt instruments than even a typical emerging bond index.

    Oops.

    submitted by /u/JasonPegasi
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    Deere shares drop after tractor maker cuts forecast, citing ‘lingering trade tensions’

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 11:19 AM PST

    Shares of Deere dropped on Wednesday after the manufacturing company issued lower guidance as trade tensions continue to slow equipment purchases by farmers.

    The Moline, Illinois-based company said it now expects net income of $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion in fiscal 2020, lower than average analyst estimates of $3.5 billion for the year, according to Refinitiv.

    Deere said it sees agricultural equipment sales falling between 5% and 10% in fiscal year 2020. Construction equipment sales are expected to decline as much as 15% next year, the company said.

    "Lingering trade tensions coupled with a year of difficult growing and harvesting conditions have caused many farmers to become cautious about making major investments in new equipment," Deere CEO John May said in a statement.

    Deere reported an adjusted profit of $2.14 per share for the third quarter, down from $2.30 per share last year. That compares with average analyst estimates of $2.13 per share, according to Refinitiv.

    Shares of Deere fell nearly 4% in premarket trading on Wednesday.

    The U.S. and China have engaged in a trade war for a year and a half. Punitive tariffs that the two countries slapped on one another's goods have taken a bite out of the world's two largest economies. The U.S. manufacturing particularly experienced weakness as a key gauge for the sector started showing contraction a few months ago.

    "John Deere's performance reflected continued uncertainties in the agricultural sector," May said."General economic conditions have remained favorable. This has supported demand for smaller equipment and led to solid results for Deere's construction and forestry business, which had a record year for sales and operating profit."

    — Reuters contributed to this report.

    CNBC, DE share price

    submitted by /u/ChocolateTsar
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    US durable goods orders rise 0.6% in October, vs expected drop of 0.8%

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 05:37 AM PST

    AMZN v BABA v MELI

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 12:30 AM PST

    Who's your best pick out of these 3 E-commerce giants, in terms of future growth?

    submitted by /u/chinalt
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    Goldman Sachs Bullish on Gold for 2020

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 03:04 PM PST

    Goldman Sachs has a bullish outlook on gold. Analysts at the investment bank see prices pushing to $1,600 an ounce next year. The price of gold currently sits at $1459.62. That is a nearly 10% gain from present day prices. December gold futures are trading at about $1,456.70 an ounce.

    On Sunday, the investment bank stated in a report that it likes the precious metal for 2020, because investors are looking for alternative investment assets.

    "Investment deficit creates excess savings, supporting gold. In theory, savings should equal investment, but due to this decline in capex and a rise in precautionary cash balances, a savings surplus is beginning to develop that is supporting gold prices," the analysts wrote. "When combined with 750 tonnes of central bank gold purchases related to de-dollarization and defensive portfolio rotations, the savings glut means we maintain our bullish gold stance in 2020 with a target of $1600/toz.."

    The investment bank's analysts believe that heightened global uncertainty, along with slowing economic growth, could support gold prices. Recession concerns remain, moreover, according to the analysts. Increasing inflation, as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low, could buoy gold prices. A potential flight from the dollar could also help support the gold price.

    Goldman Sachs is less bullish on silver for 2020. The investment bank does see prices increasing to $18 an ounce, a gain of 6.5% over current prices.

    "Outside of investment demand, silver fundamentals remain challenged as industrial demand contracted and mine supply, while flat this year, is expected to grow strongly in 2020," the analysts said. "While we expect investor interest in the precious space to be high in 2020 it will likely be less than during 2H19 when recession fears spiked. In such an environment while gold investment can continue to grow silver often gets overlooked being the marginal precious metal."

    source: https://goldsilverbitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-gold-prediction-2020/

    submitted by /u/AwkwardTie1
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    Friends tell me you don't touch the principal if you live on the dividends only in retirement.

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 01:47 AM PST

    Some of my retired friends are so proud of themselves because they live on the dividends of their various stocks, ETF's and Mutual Funds. They have the dividends go directly into their bank accounts instead of reinvesting them. So they can pay their bills they only invest in high dividend stocks, ETF's and Mutual Funds with an annual yield of about 3.5%.

    I tell them because they don't reinvest the dividends and spend them instead, they are in fact drawing down the principal. Why? Because the value of the stock drops an equal amount of the dividend shortly before the dividend is paid. My friends reject this out of hand. Who is right?

    submitted by /u/chargum
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    About Interactive Brokers

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 12:35 AM PST

    Hello, everyone,

    I am from Serbia, I have problem with sending money to IB account. My bank won't transfer it. Any help? How can I go around this.

    submitted by /u/thctetro
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    Can a company do a reverse stock split if no stock split has been previously made?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 03:27 PM PST

    Green, Sustainable, Ecological, Carbon Offsetting, Ethical, Humanitarian, Carbon Offsetting, ... Investments opportunities (for European)

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 03:22 AM PST

    I am an investor in Europe who is becoming more aware of the impact of his lifestyle on both the environment and society and I would like to engage in investment opportunities with a socially responsible character, in the themes of Green, Ethical, Sustainable, Humanitarian, Ecological, Carbon Offsetting, environmental, etc.

    How do I best approach this? I've contacted the bank but am unsure if they can offer good opportunities. The idea is to help contribute to development projects with a socially responsible character and that still offer a return-on-investment, even though it might be reduced. Basically, I'd be willing to lose some profits for the additional feel-good factor and helping to contribute to the world a bit.

    submitted by /u/Kalenden
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    TA or FA Certifications

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 11:26 PM PST

    As I near holiday break I was wondering if there are any verifications, online courses or anything of the like I could take for Technical Analysis? I'm only a freshman in college but have spent the past few months studying through various books, videos, and so on. Most of the certifications require you to be in your final year of your undergraduate, have 3-5 years in the finance world and so on. I'm trying to buff myself up a little bit so I'm more attractive when I transfer schools next year while learning about something I'm interested in. For reference, I was looking at starting the process for the CMT and CFT but the requirements obviously don't fit me as being a freshman undergraduate there's a pretty large barrier for entry.

    Any help would be appreciated greatly, thank you in advice.

    submitted by /u/All_Ts
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    Thoughts on $ULTA? 52 week low and earnings call next week.

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 06:02 PM PST

    Honest Q RE: Pension Lump Sum Payout Rollover Dynamics (Taxation)

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 02:14 AM PST

    As background, an ex-employer sent me a pension lump sum payment via check (totaling ~$40k) and it is addressed to me. I clearly indicated that my decision was a direct rollover of the amount to an IRA / 401k (and no such tax withholding or 10% early penalty was reflected) — and I still intend to deposit the check to Fidelity.

    My question: Given that the check is addressed to me, how would this be tracked if I were to deposit the check directly to my Chase Brokerage Account and simply invested it that way? How would it be tracked for taxation purposes? I clearly intend to roll it directly into my Fidelity IRA, but I am just curious given the assumed 60-day rule to complete such rollover. Would this amount be reflected in my gross taxable income for the year for tax purposes? Would I have to produce documentation to confirm that the amount was indeed rolled directly into an eligible retirement account?

    To confirm, I am not asking to potentially game the system here; I am simply asking for my own edification. Thank you all in advance for the help!

    submitted by /u/Nupey03
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    Started managing my own brokerage portfolio and need to know if my allocation is good.

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 02:12 AM PST

    54.85% VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market 15.25% VXUS - Vanguard Total International Stock Market 10% VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield 6.15% VWO - Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock 5% BSV - Short Term Bond 5% BND - Total Bond Market 3.75% VYMI - International High Dividend Yield

    submitted by /u/iblowwhistles
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    CNBC - Blockchain to ‘save food industry $31 billion,’ new research says

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 02:00 AM PST

    Researching Stock Performance at year XXXX

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 01:59 AM PST

    If i wanted to research the performance of some stock at some previous year, to try and find out why it did what it did. Where would be a good place to investigate.

    Currently using google, but all i get is how great the stock is.

    submitted by /u/luvYun
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    When annual returns are quoted, is it CAGR ?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2019 01:56 AM PST

    Like the title says

    submitted by /u/STOPeatingSUGARS
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    Interactive Brokers Currency Conversion Error

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 09:26 PM PST

    I tried to do a currency conversion through Interactive Brokers app (have done this multiple times over the last few months) and it is kicking up a 'cash quantity cannot be used for this order' error.

    This is happening both in mine and my wife's account. Anyone know why this might be?

    Edit - Converting SGD cash to USD. It looks like USD to others is still working as normal.

    submitted by /u/OneTravellingMcDs
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    Thoughts on TAP?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 04:12 PM PST

    Is it at the bottom? Looks like it pays a nice 4.35% dividend. And forward p/e looks like 12. They own Coors, Blue Moon, and Miller.

    submitted by /u/JustinTheJovial3030
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    Why is the S&P 500 always growing?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 04:59 AM PST

    I've seen the chart of the S&P 500 and even if sometime it went down, it got up higher than before every time. Why?

    submitted by /u/CIARRAPUNGI
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    Is roku a buy or sell?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 05:34 PM PST

    What do you guys think of Steven Dux? Is he real?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 10:38 PM PST

    Trying to look into stocks, but I don't want to follow fake marketing scammers.

    Any advice would be appreciated!

    submitted by /u/YourDailyConsumer
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    Good books for “modern” economics?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 10:13 PM PST

    Finishing up a book called "Power and Plenty" which is giving me a good basis for economics that involves trade mostly. I'm looking for a book that explains the more "modern" economics concepts such as interest rates effects on bond yields and how that affects the economy, market etc. How currencies strengthen or weaken as a result of xyz (I know trade affects it).

    You guys know what I mean by modern economics right? Please suggest any books because this power and plenty book was mint.

    submitted by /u/JPTrader604
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    Nov. 28, 2019, Asian business news

    Posted: 27 Nov 2019 09:53 PM PST

    *Robots -Toyota AI ventures joined Bumblebee's Spaces' series A round. Bumblebee's system controls the arrangement of furniture, using voice commands or its mobile app. ⠀ *Korea ⠀ -About US $49.3 million of cryptocurrency was stolen from Upbit, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange. ⠀ -S. Korea's money supply to GDP ratio in 2018 is estimated to be 151.5%, higher than the OECD average. ⠀ *Japan ⠀ -The Nikkei 225 index has increased around 16.4% while the TOPIX has risen about 19%, compared to the same period last year. ⠀ -The government is keen to require all new car models to have automatic braking systems from fiscal 2021. ⠀ -S. Korea and Japan are discussing responsibilities regarding air traffic control over the East China Sea. ⠀ *China ⠀ -The 2019 Low Institute report says that China had 276 diplomatic posts around the world, ahead of the U.S. which had 273. China overtook the US to have the world's largest diplomatic network. ⠀ -Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that taxes would continue to be cut in an effort to stimulate the sluggish economy. ⠀ @dylanyang0930 theasians.org

    submitted by /u/dylanyang0930
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