Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- US imposes record $7.5 billion tariffs on EU goods, targeting wine and Airbus
- Reps Lieu And Rice Call For Investigation Into Suspicious Futures Trading Around Geopolitical Events, Trump Statements
- Are there any brokerages with custom automation?
- Twilio Financials and Underlying Story
- China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected
- SPHD for diversification?
- Johnson & Johnson's stock drops after baby powder recall
- Salesforce founder Marc Benioff says ‘capitalism as we know it is dead’, Corporate earnings are often tepid, yet stocks in those same companies are soaring, thanks in part to stock buybacks that fatten executive compensation but do little to help the business.
- Mark Hurd, Oracle CEO, dies at 62
- SoftBank Eyes WeWork Rescue Valuation Below $8 Billion
- Taxes on stock dividends?
- Uber has laid off hundreds of employees in its third round of cuts this year
- $TEAM Earnings Report
- A Robust Estimator of the Efficient Frontier - a new paper for nerds by LDP
- Schwab, in Bid for Younger Clients, to Allow Investors to Buy and Sell Fractions of Stocks
- ECB's Draghi warns of bubble risk in the euro zone
- Braindead or Willfully Manipulative? How the Media Reported Retail Sales
- Dividend Investing
- Are Chinese companies like Bidu only profitable because Google is not allowed to do business in China?
- How can i protect myself from currency fluctuations?
- Wife started day-trading.....so far so good with a sample size of 6 trades over two months. I need some Math / Statistics help though...
- The economy could shock all the bears in 2020
- Does anyone else think Disney is about to knock it out of the park with their new streaming service?
- Does anyone have experience with interactive market intelligence data platforms?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 18 Oct 2019 05:11 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| US imposes record $7.5 billion tariffs on EU goods, targeting wine and Airbus Posted: 18 Oct 2019 05:52 AM PDT
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 10:01 AM PDT I know we all joke about it here, but it seems like something may actually be up. Seems to be focusing on "e-mini futures contracts". The meat:
Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any brokerages with custom automation? Posted: 18 Oct 2019 07:39 PM PDT There are brokerages with unlimited buy/sell choices and there are brokerages with automation but with few portfolio choices. Are there any brokerages that combine the two and have customizable automation? Let's say I have a target portfolio. For ease sake, let's make it a Boglehead 3 fund portfolio. One way to do that would be to use an ETF mix like this: VTI - 60% VXUS - 25% BND - 15% I'd like to be able to make an automatic deposit, either an ACH push or ACH pull, at a certain time interval (let's call it weekly), and the deposit would automatically be invested in the percentages above. One step more sophisticated, if one of the portfolio components is below its target percentage, it gets more invested in it and the component that is above its target gets less. Is there anything like that out there or anything close? Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| Twilio Financials and Underlying Story Posted: 18 Oct 2019 09:31 AM PDT Today I thought I would take a look at Twilio (TWLO), a company who's stock is up 6x since its IPO and what seem to be their drivers of value. Industry Twilio operates within the unified communications and communications platform as a service market, which allows companies to use Twilio to contact customers via Text, Voice, and email in an automated fashion. A use case in this, and one of Twilio's largest customers, is WhatsApp who uses Twilio to send automated text messages to verify customers on their platform. A similar example is with Uber. The overall market size for Twilio and its peers varies all over the place, with some showing as little as $3.5B up to $32T. One research report from Gartner show sthe unified communications marekt is $40B, with most of the growth occuring in cloud services rather than on-prem solutions. This fits in with Twilios recent acquisition of SendGrid, which augments their programmable solutions for Voice, Video, and Messaging with email solutions as well. Revenue In their most recent quarter, Twilio states that they have 162k active customer accounts (active accounts that have generated >$5/revenue in the last month). Given that their quarterly Base Revenue was approximately $257mm, that translates into a quarterly spend of $1,600/customer, or an annualized $6,300/customer. This number is a blended result of Twilio and SendGrid, which they closed their merger on February 1st of 2019. On a stand alone basis, Twilio earns ~ $11,600/customer/year, while SendGrid is earning $1,900/customer/year. Both companies have been steadily increasing pricing per customer, which on a combined basis is up 22% year-over-year. Looking forward, the company has given guidance of $276 - $278mm and $1,064 - $1,068mm of Base Revenue for Q3 and FY19, respectively. Two key metrics then factor in here. On a combined basis, revenue per customer has grown at a 3.4% CAGR and number of customers have grown at a 7.2% CAGR since 1Q16. Their guidance target fits well within these ranges. Customer Value One minor diversion here that we can pull from Twilio's financials is their customer lifetime value partly from slide 18. The gross contribution per customer has been increasing steadily from $2,150/year to $3,650/year. Given their Dollar Net Expansion Rate is >140% (implying customers are spending 40% more than the same period 1 year ago), I am eschewing the simplified model and using an H-model to give credit for a near-term high growth rate and a long-term stable growth rate. Even with a relatively short high growth period, the value of each additional subscriber (~$50k) greatly outweighs the meager $1,500 customer acquisition cost. Assuming $48k, net of subscriber acquisition cost, the value of their customer portfolio is worth ~$7.5 - 8.0B. Costs From a cost perspective, Twilio is fairly stable with Cost of sales being ~44%, Research and Development ~24%, and Sales and Marketing ~25% of Base Revenue. The bulk of their cost of sales is related to fees paid to cellular providers to pay for connection costs. Likely they will see some margin improvements across the board as they're able to centralize equipment and software between their platform and SendGrid (and whatever usual synergies are expected). One interesting note is that Twilio noted most of their growth will come from abroad, which will require additional employee and cost burdens as the company moves globally (the company only has 25% of its revenue internationally today). Capitalization Twilio has about $22B of total capital in the company. The substantial bulk of the funds come from their outstanding equity ($21B) with the remaining $1B coming from a 0.25% Sr. convertible bond due 2023, which is convertible at $70.90/share. Given the company has been operating so far effectively as a breakeven business, the company has another 3+ years before needing to address the convertible bond, which will likely convert into equity. Additionally, the company is sitting on $1.9B of cash and marketable securities. Returns Overall the market has been very supportive of Twilio's strategy, with the stock up 32% YTD (through their Q2 reporting) and 160% year-over-year. This has led to a number of articles coming up that the company is overvalued. One way I've looked at it, is the invested capital as a multiple of the value of their customer portfolio. Around the time of their IPO, Twilio was valued at 2x their customer base (invested capital of $3.3B vs. $1.6B for customer portfolio). Today the company is around 2.5x. This does reflect that it is an expensive time to get into the stock (particularly compared to 12/31/17 when it was 1x). Implicitly, the market must be placing a higher value on the growth opportunities in the business and what Twilio will be able to generate. TL;DR Twilio's recent acquisition of SendGrid gives the company the platform to be a truly unified communications company, providing email, voice, and text services to their customers. Investors expectation of combined growth has increased substantially, with a lot of opportunities to cross-sell between the platforms. Support here. Per usual, excel available upon request. [link] [comments]  |
| China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected Posted: 17 Oct 2019 07:53 PM PDT https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/18/china-q3-gdp-beijing-posts-economic-data-amid-trade-war-with-us.html China released third-quarter GDP figures on Friday showing the economy grew 6.0% from a year ago. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China's third-quarter GDP to grow 6.1% from a year ago. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 12:19 PM PDT I'm putting money into DGRO and I have no bonds, but I'm thinking of using SPHD to diversify (about 25%). There's only a 9% overlap, and although the expense ratio is a little high, it should help the portfolio be a little less volatile while being more on the aggressive side. Thoughts? Or should I look into a bond etf instead? [link] [comments]  |
| Johnson & Johnson's stock drops after baby powder recall Posted: 18 Oct 2019 07:43 AM PDT https://www.marketwatch.com/story/johnson-johnsons-stock-drops-after-baby-powder-recall-2019-10-18
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| Posted: 17 Oct 2019 07:50 PM PDT |
| Mark Hurd, Oracle CEO, dies at 62 Posted: 18 Oct 2019 06:25 PM PDT
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| SoftBank Eyes WeWork Rescue Valuation Below $8 Billion Posted: 18 Oct 2019 08:44 AM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-eyes-wework-rescue-valuation-143300699.html (Bloomberg) -- SoftBank Group Corp. is assembling a rescue financing plan for WeWork that may value the office-sharing company below $8 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions. The new figure is a fraction of the $47 billion valuation the startup commanded as recently as January. The talks are fluid and the terms could change, said the people, who requested anonymity because the discussions are private. WeWork, reeling since it scrapped its initial public offering, has been considering dueling plans from SoftBank and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to shore up its finances before it runs out of cash as early as next month. The company's board could make a decision as soon as this weekend, according to some of the people familiar with the situation. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 08:55 PM PDT What are the tax percentages for countries like the United States? Why I'm asking this is because eToro takes a 30% fee from the dividends you can earn from their platform, claiming that the 30% is for tax purposes and that they don't earn off it. P.S. Unfortunately for the country I'm in, eToro is pretty much my only option for investing in U.S. stocks. [link] [comments]  |
| Uber has laid off hundreds of employees in its third round of cuts this year Posted: 17 Oct 2019 08:11 PM PDT
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 10:40 AM PDT So they just reported earnings of $0.28/ share while analysts were expecting $0.24/ share. They also raised guidance. They were having huge losses this time last year and are now reporting good profits. Yet we're dropping 10-11%? What gives? "Atlassian Corp. TEAM-10.55% shares declined in the extended session Thursday even after the enterprise cloud-software company posted results and an outlook slightly above Wall Street estimates. Atlassian shares fell 3.3% after hours, following a 1.3% decline in the regular session to close at $122.64. The company reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $69.3 million, or 28 cents a share, compared with a loss of $242.4 million, or $1.03 a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $363.4 million from $267.3 million in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 24 cents on revenue of $351.8 million. Atlassian expects adjusted fiscal second-quarter earnings of about 27 cents a share on revenue of $386 million to $390 million, while analysts had forecast 26 cents a share on revenue of $381.5 million. Atlassian also announced it acquired automation company Code Barrel for an undisclosed amount." [link] [comments]  |
| A Robust Estimator of the Efficient Frontier - a new paper for nerds by LDP Posted: 18 Oct 2019 03:50 AM PDT |
| Schwab, in Bid for Younger Clients, to Allow Investors to Buy and Sell Fractions of Stocks Posted: 17 Oct 2019 10:51 AM PDT |
| ECB's Draghi warns of bubble risk in the euro zone Posted: 18 Oct 2019 07:42 AM PDT
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| Braindead or Willfully Manipulative? How the Media Reported Retail Sales Posted: 18 Oct 2019 07:16 AM PDT |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 08:02 AM PDT (Quick disclaimer not looking for any advice on dividend investing itself). I want to have an app/website that i can view the declaration and payment dates of all the dividend stocks I own all in one place. For example, on SoFi it shows my portfolio along with unrealized gain/loss and percent change on the day. Any app/ website that allows this? I am 22 and looking to start passively investing in blue chips as well as less known monthly dividend stocks. Thank you very much!!! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 11:43 AM PDT Considering investing in Bidu, I'm concerned about competition from Google....Other companies like Huawei apparently do very well in face of foreign competition though....Well enough to get banned. I'd like some real analysis on this issue...I really have no use for any hyperbole parroted from CNN or Fox News. Don't reply if you're using the media pick your stock portfolio... [link] [comments]  |
| How can i protect myself from currency fluctuations? Posted: 18 Oct 2019 05:19 AM PDT Hello How does one go about protecting positions in foreign countries where a different currency is used? The only way i could imagine doing this is by opening positions in the FOREX market? Do you guys have any advice? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2019 08:42 AM PDT We agreed to set aside $5k of our portfolio for "fun trades" rather than our normal long-term investing strategy. She has followed the market closely, and mostly played on Earnings releases. Her 6 trades have netted the following profits (losses): COST: $323.25 MU: (261.52) NKE: 408.81 WW: 182.47 TGT: 99.93 KO: 101.24 My question is....how do i know if this is sustainable. How big of a sample size would I need to have to, say, have a 90% confidence interval that her returns are beating the market? The simple math shows a ~17% return over two months...which would be close to 100% return annualized. Edit: Obviously not the volume to be "Day Trading"....but rather, each investment was held for a short period of time like 4-24 hours. [link] [comments]  |
| The economy could shock all the bears in 2020 Posted: 17 Oct 2019 04:29 PM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-economy-could-shock-all-the-bears-in-2020-194835472.html "Clearly to put the cautions out there, risks have risen. Manufacturing has slowed down globally and clearly slowed down in the U.S. substantially. We are seeing some initial signs of that spilling over into the consumer. But to us, this reminds us of that period in 2015/2016 when we saw global manufacturing slowdown, it infected the U.S. and we even saw the consumer slow down a little bit then too. But that underlying resilience of the consumer ultimately kind of carried the day," Pyle explained on Yahoo Finance's The First Trade. Pyle added, "With the Fed being more accommodative, we are seeing the housing market pick back up, housing activity pick back up. And we think that will be enough to see us through as we get into 2020." Several of the biggest breakouts of late in the S&P 500 1500 have come from the consumer discretionary space, according to Renaissance Macro. The researchers at RenMac are also seeing a "surge" in the percentage of stocks making 52-week highs in the consumer durables and apparel sectors to the best level in over a year. [link] [comments]  |
| Does anyone else think Disney is about to knock it out of the park with their new streaming service? Posted: 17 Oct 2019 01:35 PM PDT I personally believe that Netflix's moat isn't as wide as people think it is. Their biggest advantage was that they were the first and only option. This brought in enough money to buy more content and create their own. I believe this competitive advantage is waning. If I had to choose between Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ package or a Netflix package for around the same price, the decision would be easy. (DIS) I realize you can subscribe to both but if Netflix ends up being the less popular service (or if it even becomes close) then they shouldn't command the valuation that they currently sit at. [link] [comments]  |
| Does anyone have experience with interactive market intelligence data platforms? Posted: 18 Oct 2019 05:12 AM PDT Any ideas on the following: Euromonitor, GlobalData, S&P Market Intelligence, AlphaSense, etc.? How useful are these? [link] [comments]  |
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