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    Monday, September 2, 2019

    Formal posting guidelines for political topics and what constitutes investment vs corporate news. **READ BEFORE COMMENTING IN THIS SUB PLEASE** Investing

    Formal posting guidelines for political topics and what constitutes investment vs corporate news. **READ BEFORE COMMENTING IN THIS SUB PLEASE** Investing


    Formal posting guidelines for political topics and what constitutes investment vs corporate news. **READ BEFORE COMMENTING IN THIS SUB PLEASE**

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 12:31 PM PDT

    Alright everyone, it looks like we had pretty broad support in this thread when it comes to cracking down on the hyper partisanship that's been spilling out of the political subreddits to all corners of reddit. In this thread I'm going to lay out some formal guidelines for comments on political topics. Since this is so widespread I want to be clear here: this post is everyone's formal warning. That means temporary or in some cases permanent bans are being handed out for people who violate said guidelines immediately. This is really the only way to deal wit this issue. I'm going to try to get automod to sticky applicable threads with this post as well.

    First lets address politics

    I want to note something first: we are absolutely enforcing higher posting standards for political threads. I think it's entirely uncontroversial to point out that calling Warren Buffett an asshole doesn't nearly stir up the anger that calling any given political figure an asshole will. Comments like that being upvoted quickly derail threads and drive the discussion away from investing.

    So here's the simple guideline which I'll expand on: you're free to express your opinion so long as it's tied to investing, you put effort in to it, and it's civil. We're not here to stop the free flow of discussion or ideas but we are here to keep discussion surrounding investing and civil.

    Tied to investing: this should be pretty straightforward but I'm laying it out here anyway. Investing encompasses markets, economic impacts, corporate profits, shifts in the yield curve, the federal reserve, taxes, potential government spending that may impact your portfolio.

    Investing does not encompass immigration, personal lives of politicians, social issues, climate change(unless specifically within the context of impact to energy or similar), how you feel about a particular news organization's potential biases, etc. If it's not in the first list it's probably not investing related. Making comments pertaining to non investment related politics only serves to drive the conversation off course and create a thread that is indistinguishable from one in a political subreddit.

    Effort: no shitposts. If you're not conveying a thought or analysis of a particular subject then it's probably best to not post. Furthermore top level comments like "fuck my portfolio" don't help keeping conversation on track. Lastly and most importantly anything that falls in to the political meme universe isn't going to fly here. That means if you're repeating something like TDS, MAGA, trade wars are good and easy to win, Pocahontas, orange man bad, any of the millions of nicknames for the president, very stable genius, any given childish spin on Democrat/republican(ex DemocRAT or Republitard), etc isn't tolerated. These sorts of things only serve to agitate those on the opposite end of the political spectrum and create partisan arguments.

    Your post should be something like "I disagree/agree with Trump here because [policy] will do XYZ which is good/bad for ABC and blah blah blah blah". If you are unable to express an investment related position on a topic without insults and memes then you probably should just go to a political subreddit and comment there.

    Special note here: conspiracy theories about politics and markets are not allowed. If you are going to imply criminal market manipulation or insider trading proof in the form of reporting or other documentation is necessary. This is not a place for baseless accusations derived from political leaning.

    Civility: so we already don't allow personal attacks here. Generally speaking many people identify so closely with political parties and politicians that they react to political attacks the same way they will to personal attacks. I get it, people get worked up over politics. Translating that emotion to a post here only serves to have people with opposing views get similarly worked up. This isn't an appropriate subreddit for that. We're here to discuss investing. So any comment that would violate our personal attacks rule if you made it towards another user is prohibited against political parties or figures. /r/investing is not a platform for people to express their outrage towards politicians or political parties. There are tons of subreddits for that sort of thing.

    So now that the guidelines are made clear, here's the consequences. In our observation the vast majority of people engaging in political attacks and low effort posts are not regular contributors. They tend to frequent political subreddits and engage in political attacks elsewhere. So we're automatically handing out 30 day bans for violation of the above rules. If you feel like your ban was in error or unfair you can appeal in modmail but we're not really inclined to reverse decisions if you aren't already a regular contributor. For egregious offenses the ban may be 60 days or permanent. For overt racism, death threats against any public figure, or similar there is an automatic permanent ban.

    Now Corporate vs Investment News

    /u/crasymike did an awesome job laying out the general guidelines here: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/b3ss3q/topics_being_removed_corporate_news_vs_investor/

    I'm going to just copy some of the hard guidelines here so they're in the same place but take a look at that thread to see a full explanation.

    tl;dr Not all corporate news is investment news. If you post a topic the onus is on you to guide the discussion towards investing. If the moderators feel that a topic lacks relevance (which is more clearly defined below) then it might be removed. Off-topic top-level comments have similar standards applied to them.

    This means that the onus is on you as the person posting the topic to guide the discussion. As moderators all we can do is remove offending comments, but we can't incite relevant discussion in every topic.

    Tell us, why is this political news impactful? Seek out an article that discusses market impacts rather than a generic article. If you want to post corporate news then find an article that includes the impact on the investment. Copy that information into the body of your post. Include price history. Add other pertinent links or details for the corporate.

    If you include no relevant investing information then don't be surprised if the topic is completely derailed from discussing investing. If you are posting a topic you need to invite people to talk about investing by using an article, or including information, that is pertinent to investors.

    As moderators, we have a few policies that we use to guide ourselves. This is a broad rule that requires some interpretation, but here we go:

    • If we can't figure out how your topic relates to investing, and the article doesn't include any (or extremely little) market news, and the body of your post doesn't link the topic to investing we will probably remove it as off-topic.

    • If your topic has an indirect relation to investing (such as being about a public company, or is major market shifting news) but you included no market information and the article(s) you linked have no investing information we may remove it if we feel that there is no clear reason to expect on-topic comments.

    • If someone posts a top-level comment on a thread that completely derails away from investing we will probably remove it.

    If the policies above would result in the modteam seemingly needing to remove nearly every top level comment in a thread, and we felt like your thread is "borderline" not investing news, then we will take this as confirmation that the topic wasn't investing news. If the entire conversation in a thread is already driven off topic by political attacks or off topic discussion we will lock and remove a thread no matter how topical it is. Please do your part and downvote/report political attacks even if you agree with them. This will prevent us from just nuking a thread

    submitted by /u/MasterCookSwag
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    China’s factory activity shows unexpected expansion in August, a private survey shows

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:00 PM PDT

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/02/china-economy-caixin-markit-manufacturing-pmi-for-august-2019.html

    The Caixin/Markit factory Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4 in August — better than than the 49.8 analysts polled by Reuters had expected. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.9 in July.

    edit: Thanks for the gold award!

    submitted by /u/coolcomfort123
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    About 30 percent of us will die before age 65. Do you have a plan B for your investments, in case you're unlucky?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:22 PM PDT

    I'm primarily thinking of people on this sub who invest for their retirement.

    Do you have a plan for where your money should go, if you die before you get to use it, e.g. if you get cancer and die at age 63? Presumably many will be happy to pass it on to the immediate family, but have you actually thought about this, and perhaps even made a concrete plan?

    (Sauce on age/death data: http://employees.oneonta.edu/vomsaaw/w/psy345/handouts/demograf.pdf )

    Edit: thanks for pointing out potential flaws in the life expectancy projection. To add one of my own: people on this sub will probably live longer than the avg. American anyways, e.g. due to higher ed, access to health care, perhaps healthier lifestyles. The point remains: some of us will die way earlier than we hoped. Considering that so many here talk about 401k maxxing, etf-till-you-retire, etc., do you prep for this undesirable Plan B outcome?

    submitted by /u/doubleplusgoodx999
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    U.S. Goes Ahead With New Tariffs on Chinese Products

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:31 AM PDT

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-goes-ahead-with-new-tariffs-on-chinese-products-11567337797

    U.S. duties of 15% on tools, apparel items, some footwear and many electronics are expected to hit consumers

    submitted by /u/beck2048
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    (26) Can I just dump $300k into a Target Date Fund and never worry about investing again?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:10 AM PDT

    I've see lots of flashy infographics and such saying if you start investing $450~ or so a month from 25 and on you'll retire a millionaire given average S&P500 returns.

    Given this is roughly $215k, can I just put a lump sum of $300k into the market on Tuesday, never put in another dime and retire with somewhere over 3 million dollars by the time I'm 65?

    submitted by /u/R-3-D
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    Dow futures open up -230 points Sunday Sept 1

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:17 PM PDT

    Futures trading just opened up here and all of the major US indices are down at least 1%. Could be green by Tuesday morning when Markets open up but seems like these tariffs aren't good for the markets

    submitted by /u/jcarmona24
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    $APHA or $ACB

    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:04 AM PDT

    If you had $1000 to throw in and forget, which would you choose and why?

    submitted by /u/PersecuteThis
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    Reddit, do you invest only in the stock market or also elsewhere?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 01:30 PM PDT

    Investing is a broad concept. One can invest in different ways (and even multiple, simultaneously), from starting an own business (e.g. ecommerce), buying real estate in order to rent it out or invest in the stock market. This are few of the more choices one has.

    So, in what do you invest?

    submitted by /u/MegaStudent
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    Corporate Profits Are Down, But Wages Are Up

    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 02:27 AM PDT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-01/corporate-profits-are-down-but-wages-are-up

    For most of the post-World War II era, sharp declines in corporate profits' GDP share tended to coincide with, and sometimes presage, recessions. Declining profit margins caused corporations to cut back on investment and hiring, which caused slowdowns that compressed margins even more.

    submitted by /u/MrCrickets
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    Is Chase You Invest a good start for a newcomer?

    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 01:38 AM PDT

    I'm not looking for anything fancy, just in short to buy and sell stocks. I've been looking into different platforms like Robinhood, Vanguard, Lightspeed, ect. But as i already use Chase for my day to day banking, I'd prefer to use them if You Invest is good and does what i'm looking for.

    submitted by /u/slasher166
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    short term SPY calls

    Posted: 02 Sep 2019 04:24 AM PDT

    Hi I have red about the fact that short term SPY calls yield so much money.

    Can I ask you why? Why short term SPY calls can yeld a lot of money? Are they too risky? Why?

    submitted by /u/luchins
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    Financial Struggles Push Kraft Heinz Co. To Cut 400 Jobs

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 11:45 AM PDT

    https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2019/08/14/kraft-heinz-cutting-400-jobs/

    The Kraft Heinz Company has already cut 1,400 jobs, but it's planning to cut 400 more as a part of a global restructuring program.

    submitted by /u/MrCrickets
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    Is there any risk in just putting 100% of my ROTH IRA portfolio in something like VOO (or any other S&P 500 index)?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 08:15 AM PDT

    I feel like that is the safest option for me. If I am not going to touch this money until 40+ years, is it a bad idea to fully put it into VOO (or another S&P 500)? I feel like that would give me the most reliable returns (around 7% per year) while being very low risk.

    The only catastrophic thing I can see happening is if something terrible happens to the US/US economy. Another thing that popped into my head: what happens if I buy something like VOO but then Vanguard goes under? These are the two main concerns I have with this conservative long term strategy. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/theinfiltrator117
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    Recession proof

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 09:38 PM PDT

    Any Stocks that might survive the upcoming recession?

    submitted by /u/mansa18
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    [TA] S&P 500 is showing a technically clean set-up for a major shorting opportunity at 3150 around Oct 31 hard Brexit

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:53 PM PDT

    Link to charts.

    Technical analysis & commentary:

    The S&P 500 is setting up perfectly for a crash around Oct 31 when the U.K. hard Brexits. The chart shows a clean technical trend towards an inflection point on that day—a strange coincidence. Here is some (hopefully) simple (enough) analysis to help you understand the risk of this particular scenario.

    Looking at the chart with a daily timeframe (Chart #1), the medium term trend for the market is making a megaphone pattern (dark green lines). It looks like this < on the chart but is pointing to 9:30 p.m. on the chart instead of 9 p.m. This is a bearish trend that shows limited upside (top dark green line is flattish) with increasing volatility (cone of the megaphone is expanding) to the downside (bottom dark green line is steeper than top line).

    The short term trend is making a flag pattern (light green lines). It looks like this > on the chart but is pointing to 2 p.m. on the chart instead of 3 p.m. This is a bullish trend showing a series of higher highs and lower lows.

    The price has traded very neatly within these trends in the last few weeks. The trends collide on Oct 4, at which point the price will break-out of one trend and confirm the other. As we count down to Brexit, I think the market will trade throughout Oct between 3000-3150, above the dark green top line and into the end of the light green flag pattern. But it will be a bull-trap. The reality of hard Brexit may be the catalyst that confirms the megaphone pattern.

    This prediction is supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (Chart #1; second graph with intertwined blue and orange lines). MACD on the daily timeframe is beneath zero, indicating downward momentum, but that momentum is becoming less negative (shown by the cyclical uptick towards zero).

    The Relative Strength Index (third graph with purple line) is currently at 68 on the daily timeframe, short of the 80 mark which usually triggers selling. Both of these indicators suggest the market has one last little heave to give towards the 3150 level before it stalls and crashes.

    Looking at the chart with the monthly timeframe (Chart #2), we see the correlation between the unemployment rate (orange line) and recessions. Weakening employment conditions are the final indicator before a crash as it shows recessionary effects have passed from manufacturing through the whole economy to workers and consumers. Historically, a 0.3%+ increase in the three month moving average (MA) of the unemployment rate (not shown in charts) has signalled a recession is imminent. The jobs number is reported the first Friday of every month. The unemployment 3m MA has ticked up in the last couple months and will likely reach 3.9%, the critical level (3.6% low plus 0.3%)...in Oct. The RSI and MACD on the monthly chart also look prime to turn negative. So the stars are aligning for Oct 31.

    If the market crashes, there are no established technical price levels where we can expect support (shown by horizontal red lines on Chart #1; support is when there is more buying than selling, which drives the price up) until 2350, a level last reached in the Dec 2018 tremor that shook global markets. Interestingly, the megaphone pattern indicates the next low will be 2100 around Jan 14 - Feb 14 2020; 2100 is the next technical price level with support. Below 2100 the next major support is 1800, which would represent a 40% decline from 3150, but losses could run deeper.

    If this set up comes about, it represents a huge trading opportunity. I'd recommend at the money puts on the SPY with 20-40 day expiry. A safe entry price will be when the price crosses the 200 day moving average (blue line on Chart #1, first graph). By safe I mean relatively safe; trading options on a leveraged index is for professionals and requires proper due diligence.

    submitted by /u/Law_And_Politics
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    Fundamentals and Returns

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:47 PM PDT

    Indexes based upon fundamental factors such as sales and revenue produce annual returns of 12.91 and 12.87 percent, respectively. These returns outpace the 10.53% annual returns of the S&P 500, suggesting that their price movements are drawn from different probability distributions. Stocks with more favorable characteristics seem to produce greater returns than randomly selected stocks.

    Robert D. Arnott, Jason Hsu, and Philip Moore, 2005. "Fundamental Indexation." Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 61, no. 2.

    submitted by /u/sklerby
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    Books on sin stocks?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:09 PM PDT

    What are some books where I learn more about the business of loan sharks, strip clubs, and gambling?

    submitted by /u/gunsliquorstrippers
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    Long Term Quantum Computing Investments

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:04 PM PDT

    I'm just wondering what people's opinions are in investing long term in companies that are involved in developing quantum computing. I'm interested in investing in QC and I'm aware of the big players but are there small start ups or other smaller size companies that people are keen on?

    Any opinions or thoughts would be much appreciated!

    submitted by /u/Sherrri
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    Recurring market buy @etrade; possible?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 07:03 PM PDT

    Hi all. Recently landed on a set of ETFs that I would like to invest in regularly (every paycheck). Is it possible for me to automate this through E-Trade, or will I have to go straight to mutual funds to do this?

    I'm trying to keep everything in one place (E-Trade) because my company's stock benefits are managed though that tool. Also, I only have some ~8K to move and may need to liquidate quickly, so I'm not sure if I qualify for the portfolios I'm looking into.

    submitted by /u/Ravatu
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    Dummy Question : Compound interests

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:57 PM PDT

    Hi all, i'm willing to invest in stocks and have a dummy question.

    I want to invest into large caps stocks for a long period of time and use the "power of compound interests".
    Dummy questions are:

    • How do I know before I buy a large cap company stocks if it gives compound interests?
    • How do I know how much compound interest rate they offer?
    • Does this compound interest rate changes overtime?
    • Are compound interests calculated all year long (per month) or once a year? In the case it's once a year at the end of each year , is it a good idea to always invest more money in December?

    Thank you so so much for your help!! And sorry if some of these questions are really dummy, trying to make my first move into stocks..

    submitted by /u/annabut
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    Dummy Question : Stocks ownership over time

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:46 PM PDT

    Hi all, i'm willing to invest in stocks and have a dummy question.

    Let's say I want to invest in a large cap stock and leave it there for the next 30 years:

    - What happens if i change bank account (or close it down) I used the day of investment, and want to retrieve the stock later in time and this bank account doesn't exist anymore?
    - Can my stock get lost?
    - Is their a unique stock holder ID (not only for this large cap, but all the stocks i hold?)
    - What if the broker (online broker) I used to invest shuts down? Do my stocks comes back immediately as it shuts down, or are my stock still held by the large cap?
    - What happens if the company i have the stocks in shuts down?

    Basically i'm unsure about the whole stocks ownership process overtime, and how to retrieve my stocks such a long time after investing, in the case that I dont track it properly of that the broker shuts down.

    Thank you so so much for your help!!

    submitted by /u/annabut
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    Smart investments for 2019's shaky economy...

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:29 PM PDT

    Looking into building a dividend portfolio in this manipulated economy... maybe shorting the market?

    Ford/Intel and maybe CVS Pharma? 5% average dividend...

    Anyone just sitting in cash waiting for the plunge...?

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Slivershade
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    What has the average annualized return for the top holding in the S&P 500 been?

    Posted: 01 Sep 2019 06:16 PM PDT

    About two years ago I saw an article stating that over the past 50ish years the top holding in the S&P 500 was absurdly low but I can't remember the number and can't find the article. Does anyone have data on this?

    submitted by /u/the_real_eric_jr
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