Goldman doesn't expect further gains in the market this year Investing |
- Goldman doesn't expect further gains in the market this year
- Are there any good podcasts for beginning investors?
- Deutsche Bank parallels to Lehman
- Wall Street Hasn't Been This Pessimistic on Apple in Decades
- What are some lesser known companies that you know with a strong moat, healthy balance that benefit from secular growth trends?
- ETF’s underlying holdings question
- Newb Q: Strategies for hedging?
- WeWork / UBER / Tesla Bonds
- Virgin Galactic Going Public Via IPOA SPAC
- How do funds like the Medallion Fund (Renaissance Technology) so accurately choose healthcare and pharmaceutical companies to exploit profits ?
- How is dividend yield calculated?
- Rebalancing a Sector style portfolio?
- Ocado (OCDO.L) up 8%+ after reporting earnings
- Investing in a small business - what information do you request?
- Why Deutsche bank didn't find a buyer for its equity business?
- REITs with big discount to NAV
- Difference between going Long on Futures and buying Call Option
- What small caps are you watching currently?
- Should I Sell, hold or buy?
- TAM For Uber
- Question about investing on T Rowe Price
- comprehensive online program from beginner level to advanced?
- Question about dividend yielding ETFs
- Stock Pick- Monday, July 8 2019 (10:30PM) SHORT VERI
| Goldman doesn't expect further gains in the market this year Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:15 PM PDT They point to policy uncertainty and lowering 2020 EPS as justification. [link] [comments]  |
| Are there any good podcasts for beginning investors? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 11:31 AM PDT Recently graduated school and landed a good job, now that I have steady income I'm looking to start investing. I know a basic amount but not a ton by any means. At my job I'm allowed to have headphones in so I try to listen to podcasts and figure if I could listen to something on investing that would be ideal. Edit: I really appreciate all of the responses, clearly have some listening to do. Thank you! [link] [comments]  |
| Deutsche Bank parallels to Lehman Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:18 PM PDT Spent some time looking at DB's reports / presentation. To understand DB's problem you need to look back at Lehman. Here is Lehman's last report (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806085/000110465908045115/a08-18147_110q.htm) - if you look at assets / liabilities - their total assets were 639,432 million and total equity was 26,276. In essence levered 24:1. This high leverage means that if just if just 4% of loans goes bad, the bank is wiped out. DB has a similar problem. DB's assets are 1.43T euros vs equity of 62.9B euros - levered 22:1. DB has book value of 25 euros per share, yet it 6.9 euro per share. Thats because it is likely they will have lots of losses while unwinding the balance sheet like they are doing now. [link] [comments]  |
| Wall Street Hasn't Been This Pessimistic on Apple in Decades Posted: 08 Jul 2019 07:46 AM PDT Rosenblatt Securities downgraded the company to sell on Monday, bringing the total number of bearish analysts up to five, among the 57 ratings tracked by Bloomberg. It's the highest number of sell ratings the iPhone maker has had since at least 1997, according to historical data compiled by Bloomberg. Time to buy or time to sell? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2019 05:50 PM PDT |
| ETF’s underlying holdings question Posted: 09 Jul 2019 02:52 AM PDT Cross posted from r/canadianinvesting What are the industry standards for how an etf will handle if one of their underlying holdings gets merged or acquired? For example XIT is currently holding blackberry (BB) at 4.60%, hypothetically speaking if blackberry was acquired by another company next week and today its trading at 9.33 and the acquisition deal offers to buy each share at 10.33 (simple numbers for example's sake) how would this be reflected in the ETF? Would a one time cash dividend be distributed to all holders of the ETF or would it keep the cash and reinvest in other holdings raising it's NAV? Using this purely as an example but I'm curious about how situations like this would play out or have played out in the past, haven't been able to find much relevant info online. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| Newb Q: Strategies for hedging? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 08:07 PM PDT If I want to invest internationally, there is an issue of hedging / exchange rate fluctuations. Assuming I cannot invest in a pre-hedged investment, are there any effective ways of reducing foreign exchange rate risk? The only way I can think of is by borrowing money from the foreign currency to make the foreign investment. The trouble with that is the interest that would be paid on the borrowed funds. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2019 10:17 AM PDT Any thoughts on the credit for the above cash-flow burning companies? Tesla bonds at 7.4% yield maturing 2025 trading below par at $85 seem interesting to me. [link] [comments]  |
| Virgin Galactic Going Public Via IPOA SPAC Posted: 09 Jul 2019 04:22 AM PDT "The company will be listing its shares on the New York Stock Exchange through a minority acquisition made by Social Capital Hedosophia; the special purpose acquisition company created by former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya as part of his exploration of alternative strategies to venture capital investing as the head of Social Capital — according to a report in The Wall Street Journal." [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2019 02:15 PM PDT I went down a rabbit hole into Robert Mercer the other day which lead to his algorithm computer science background and eventually into the number 1 performing fund I could find: The Medallion Fund. I ran through its 13F/D/G fillings and noticed that many of the plays were pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies e.g. ZYNE sold in 3 months for 700% profits along with ZYME. It makes trades like this all the time like its nothing. Seems like it follows hype investments (momentum ) fearlessly. These would be the things that value investors wouldn't touch, but will probably run up like hell before getting dumped on some poor bastard bagholders. How on earth is this possible that the fund can pick so many of these FDA/ pharmaceutical cos and so cleverly return double digit profits every single year without miss? I'm thinking of dumping a grand or two of play money into their heaviest weighted and most recent investments in an attempt to mimic what their doing with an exit strategy of say 50% in a short term gamble. I don't see the fundamentals they see in stuff like cannabis pharma cos as there are so many of them that are total rubbish. I suppose you just need one huge return to even out your losses Kelly Criterion... What kind of due diligence is going on here that allows this fund crushes the market year after year. I think we calculated the return of 1 dollar investing in Medallion over 10 years and IIRC you'd be a millionaire. Correct me if I'm wrong. Just looking for some insight on the big players, what their Due Dilligence includes, how / when they make their picks and so on. Obviously if it was easy we'd all do it, but what are your thoughts on this wizardry? [link] [comments]  |
| How is dividend yield calculated? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:13 AM PDT Ticker: $VCLT Share price before dividend: $97.92 Dividend paid: $0.3114/share Dividends paid monthly Calculated yield: 0.3114*12/97.92 = 3.8% Stated yield: 4.647% What gives? [link] [comments]  |
| Rebalancing a Sector style portfolio? Posted: 09 Jul 2019 03:43 AM PDT I tried to ask this in the daily thread, but I was probably a bit late. So I'm writing this in its own post. Hello, I was wondering if anyone could share some thought and input. I'm 32 yo, and want to invest for myself(because I think it's fun) and for my 6 yo son. Something that he can inherit when I'm gone, and hopefully do the same for his kids. My current/brand new portfolio is: VGT - 20%. VHT - 20%. VCR - 20%. VDC - 20%. VPU - 20%. The main reasons I've chosen these sectors is because I find these sectors exciting. And most of the companies in there have a wide moat. I live in Norway, so these ETFs contain a lot of companies I interact with daily. Also, I chose VPU as MY defensive sector, even though I could place staples and healthcare in there as well. I've read some articles on rebalancing, but my first idea was to use time, and invest into the "lagging" sectors as time goes by, and keep every sector at roughly 20%. Is this a decent idea? And furthermore should I incorporate bonds into this, for balancing bull/bear markets? ( AGG/TLT/BND ) I just got hired at Exxonmobil and will gain exposure to "energy" with their employee/share program. Thanks in advance :) [link] [comments]  |
| Ocado (OCDO.L) up 8%+ after reporting earnings Posted: 09 Jul 2019 03:33 AM PDT Despite posting a 46.3% drop in first half earnings, mostly blamed on a warehouse fire it had at the start of the year, Ocado share price is up almost 10% today, at the time of posting this. For those unfamiliar with what they do, they essentially build automated warehouses that help click and collect or home delivery grocery orders. They have huge warehouses with robots driving all over that pack boxes with whatever is needed. They have also recently formed a joint venture with Marks and Spencers to do their home delivery for food. Marks and Spencers is like Whole Foods, fairly upmarket stuff. They have deals with major grocery store companies in America, Canada, France, Sweden, UK, Australia and then a couple minor ones too. They've also made some really important investments in meal preparation company and the vertical farming space. With climate change being a huge challenge for us I hope they begin to invest more in vertical farming as I believe the majority of our food will need to come from indoor spaces within the next 5-10 years. I am extremely bullish on the company and would love for someone to explain why I shouldn't invest more in them. 9.7% Retail Revenue growth demonstrates the resilience of the business, with the impact of the Andover fire estimated at 2% of sales in the half Fees invoiced from Solutions partners of £122.7million, up 36% on the same period in the prior year, with fees from international partners almost doubling Group EBITDA of £18.7million reflects the combined impacts of the Andover fire, IFRS 15 delaying the recognition of fees from international Solutions partners as revenue, and the cost of share schemes [link] [comments]  |
| Investing in a small business - what information do you request? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:47 AM PDT A friend of mine owns a small business that has seen some growth over the past 5 years or so. He is now looking for some investors to finance an expansion to his business, and I am seriously considering it. I reached out and requested more information. I got a summary of the company's history, a business plan, and about 6 years of financial projections in a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has little explanation/description, but there appears to be some significant existing/planned debt. The valuation he is asking for it is pretty high, but if they hit their projections (they're pretty lofty), I would recover my investment in 5-6 years. I was expecting some historic actual financials as well as a complete balance sheet. I intend to request this information, but I'm curious if there is anything else I should be asking for. EDIT: This is not a super close friend. We don't hang out every weekend and it wouldn't be straining any relationships that would bleed over into my personal life. He is more of an acquaintance/friend that I would buy a beer if I ran into him at the bar. I've watched him (from afar) start the business from the ground up, and on a few occasions have had some conversations about the business itself and 1-2 years ago I was hoping he would have a need for investors. My only concern now is that the business may be at the point where the valuation is too high for me to get any reasonable ownership percentage with the little funds I have to play with. [link] [comments]  |
| Why Deutsche bank didn't find a buyer for its equity business? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 01:16 PM PDT As per news, DB bank to quit its equity business, news article quotes IB had 74 billion euros worth assets and 200 billion euros worth leveraged exposure so i was curious. [link] [comments]  |
| REITs with big discount to NAV Posted: 09 Jul 2019 02:25 AM PDT What do you think if a rate has a discount of 50%? What could be a reason for that and what to pay attention too? There are two REITs in Dubai that are regulated and publicly traded. [link] [comments]  |
| Difference between going Long on Futures and buying Call Option Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:01 AM PDT Hey guys, Quick question. What is the difference between: going Long on Futures and buying Call Option? Which one should I choose? What is more, if prices are falling, should I execute my Call Option? Thanks a lot! [link] [comments]  |
| What small caps are you watching currently? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 11:29 AM PDT Right now the only small cap I am invested in is MAXR (>70% returns) Which companies are on your watchlist? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2019 01:24 AM PDT I am still quite new to investing and have started a small portfolio of my own buying a few small random shares with some spare cash I had. So I bought two shares (two years ago) from a South African Platinum company at ZAR 43.00 per share. They are now valued at ZAR 73.00 per share, almost a 75% increase. Should I sell, hold or buy more? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2019 01:16 AM PDT Good morning All What do you think is best for calculating a TAM for Uber, Bottom up or Top Down. Is it global logistics or more of a ridesharing even though it has EATS and Freight now. Regards George [link] [comments]  |
| Question about investing on T Rowe Price Posted: 08 Jul 2019 04:11 PM PDT A member of my family has a T Rowe Price traditional IRA account with around $5000 all invested in USTO (mutual fund), and she wants to transfer it into actual stocks like Disney and Apple. However i only see that it lets her convert to other mutual funds or cash out, is there a way to do this? [link] [comments]  |
| comprehensive online program from beginner level to advanced? Posted: 08 Jul 2019 06:22 PM PDT I read the faq section. I don't know if there is a comprehensive well structured online program that takes you from beginner to advanced level. I can read books and dabble in other materials, but it feels overwhelming and it lacks structure. I don't know what I need to learn, or where to start. Is there any program out there that can help me? I am okay with paying for it if it's worth it. [link] [comments]  |
| Question about dividend yielding ETFs Posted: 08 Jul 2019 07:10 AM PDT I am currently reading about different ETFs (besides MSCI World and EM) and I found the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF that is interesting to me. I still don't understand how exactly dividends work. According to the justETF page the dividend in EUR for 2018 was 0.12, for 2017 was 0.13, for 2016 was 0.12 etc. Does that mean that if I had invested 1000 euro on 1st of Jan 2018, I would've had 1120 euro at the beginning of 2019? Is this what the table is showing? [link] [comments]  |
| Stock Pick- Monday, July 8 2019 (10:30PM) SHORT VERI Posted: 08 Jul 2019 07:37 PM PDT This is the first of many posts to keep track of my stock picks. I plan to post periodically so I can practice stock pitches in interviews. Please feel free to comment on my picks, as well as my rationale. I will provide full disclosure of my portfolio at the end of every post. SHORT: Veritone (VERI) Today's price $7.70 Today's movement -5.75% Market Cap (Yahoo Finance) $156.6M Summary: Veritone markets itself as an AI software company, but can be viewed more as a SAAS company. They provide services to M&E (Media & Entertainment), Government, and Legal & Compliance. The AI component of their software comes from facial and item recognition. For instance, its AI can learn what a customer logo looks like and then show how many impressions of the logo appears in a video. Its AI can also, recognize a face in a surveillance video and identify the suspect. Veritone can help its customers cut expenses via labor hours and provide a revenue stream because its AI edits videos. For M&E, companies can charge customers the ability to find clips of a specific person in their content (for example an athlete in a sports event). In government, man-hours are saved because an official does not have to watch the whole surveillance video. The portion of the video without the perpetrator will be edited out. I believe there is great value in Veritone's software, but I don't believe in Veritone's run rate. Veritone reminds me of another company, HMNY (owner of Moviepass). HMNY's stock like Veritone's skyrocketed in the beginning because of FOMO investors and large fanfare. HMNY was bleeding cash and sold equity to become cash positive. HMNY stock price suffered because of this. HMNY's stock price went so low it did a 1 for 250 reverse stock-split so it could continue to be listed on Nasdaq and raise cash at a higher stock price. HMNY's stock is now a penny stock. I recommend short Veritone until it can prove to be cash flow positive from operations. Veritone can become cash flow positive because of tailwinds like new legislation in California, Ohio, and many other states forcing law enforcement to disclose a redacted version of their audio and video-based evidence on a far more rapid timeline. Until then, the cash burn and dilution will cause the share price to slide once again. Catalysts for Short: 1. Veritone will continue to issue common stock to be cash flow positive and dilute investors. Q4 2018 Shares outstanding was 19,335,220. Veritone issued 662,000 common stock in Q1 2019 (3.4%) Q1 2019 Shares outstanding was 20,197,188. 2. Additional dilution, such as Acacia Research has 1.1 million warrants priced at $13.61 and acquisitions are being funded partially by equity. The warrants are not in the money yet. If Veritone's stock price does increase, Acacia will dilute current investors even further. Veritone acquired three companies this past year. More information can be read in "Recent Acquisitions" far below. 3. Not enough revenue growth to offset net loss Revenue was $12.1M, an increase of 177% vs Q1 2018. This according to the earnings call happened from acquisitions and organic growth. The acquisitions caused SG&A to increase more too so the net loss was (16,306) vs (13,047) in Q1 2018. Catalysts for Potential Long: 1. Proof of repeat customers: ESPN and Golden Boy. ESPN Golden Boy (via acquisition of Wazee) 2. Revenue growth opportunity with new legislation in California, Ohio, and other states Aforementioned, new legislation will force law enforcement to disclose a redacted version of their audio and video-based evidence on a far more rapid timeline. Veritone is primed to serve this market. 3. Insider buying, strong management, and a strong board of directors CEO Chad Steelberg ($7.54/share), President Ryan Steelberg ($7.49/share), and Board Member Richard H. Taketa ($7.49/share) bought shares within the last month https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/veri/insider-trades CEO Chad Steelberg and President Ryan Steelberg are experienced entrepreneurs. https://www.veritone.com/about/ Board of Directors https://investors.veritone.com/governance/default.aspx Catalyst for Long or Short (depending on outlook): 1. Rejected Apis Capital hostile takeover bid In December 2018, Apis Capital offered to acquire Veritone at $10.26/share, an 82% premium at that time. Apis Capital subsequently withdrew its bid. This can be viewed as management's competence or incompetence. Competent Management was competent and believed the 82% premium was too small. Management believes the share price can be above $10.26/share soon. Incompetent Management was incompetent and did not look out for shareholders as the stock price is well below that today. Recent Acquisitions (From 10-Q): Acquired Performance Bridge (8.21.18) Veritone paid initial consideration of $5,158 and will pay a total of $3,909 in additional contingent earnout amounts for certain revenue milestones achieved by Performance Bridge in its 2018 fiscal year. The acquisition of Performance Bridge has expanded the Company's media agency offerings of comprehensive podcast solutions. Acquired Wazee Digital (8.31.18) Veritone paid an aggregate purchase price of $12,552, comprised of $7,423 paid in cash and the issuance of a total of 491,157 shares of the Company's common stock, valued at $5,129 based on the Company's closing stock price on August 31, 2018. The acquisition of Wazee Digital has expanded the Company's offerings to include digital content management and licensing solutions. Acquired Machine Box (9.6.18) Veritone paid initial consideration of $1,484, and the Company may pay up to an additional $3,000 in contingent amounts if Machine Box achieves certain technical development and integration milestones within 12 months after the closing of the acquisition, a portion of which was paid in the first quarter of 2019. In March 2019, the Company determined that Machine Box had achieved the technical development and integration milestones required to be completed as of March 6, 2019 and, as a result, the former Machine Box stockholders became entitled to receive an aggregate of $200 in cash and an aggregate of 135,583 shares of the Company's common stock, valued at $880 based on the closing price of the Company's common stock on March 6, 2019. Machine Box is a developer of state-of-the-art machine learning technologies, which have enhanced the Company's aiWARE platform capabilities. Links: Q1 2019 10-Q Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript (End of VERI Stock Pitch) Other positions LONG: BREW, PLAN, JCAP, EVBG HOLD: BL, F, HT, KHC, OLP, PD, SHAK, WORK SHORT: DF, CBIO, COTY, CUTR, HQY, KFRC, M, VNDA Disclosure of Personal Portfolio: Own shares in BL, BREW, EVBG, F, JCAP, PD, PLAN, SHAK, WORK [link] [comments]  |
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