• Breaking News

    Friday, December 21, 2018

    Nasdaq enters bear market Investing

    Nasdaq enters bear market Investing


    Nasdaq enters bear market

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 10:46 AM PST

    I Read The News So You Don't Have To - Market News (Dec. 20, 2018)

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 04:23 AM PST

    UNITED STATES

    • Futures are up slightly after yesterdays selloff but the DOW and S&P500 are still on track for their worst December since the Great Depression
    • The Fed felt the market and investors felt the pain after rates were raised yesterday and predictions for GDP growth next year were lowered
    • The Senate passed a bill to keep the government funded until Feb. 8

    OTHER

    • The EU announced plans to minimize the disruption that would be caused if Britain leaves the EU without a deal in March
      • They will allow British airlines to continue flying to EU airports and let trucks cross the border without a permit on a temporary basis
    • A Japanese court refused a request to keep Carlos Ghosn, the former boss of Nissan, in prison
    • AB InBev, brewers of Budweiser, is partnering with cannabis company Tilray in a $100 million deal
      • The project will be run by InBev's Canadian subsidiary Labatt Breweries
    • Altria, the makers of Marlboro, will purchase 35% of JUUL e-cigs for $13 billion -- just weeks ago Altria purchased a stake in cannabis company Cronos

    CHINA

    • Apple will try to avoid a ban on older iPhones in China with a software update that addresses patent issues
    • A third Canadian has been detained in China since the arrest of Huawei's CFO
    submitted by /u/ogordained
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    Dow falls to 14-month low, Nasdaq enters bear market, six of 11 S&P sectors are now more than 20% off of their most recent 52-week highs

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 11:20 AM PST

    Anyone else buying heavily at this level?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 11:39 AM PST

    • The VIX is near 30 which is usually a bullish indicator.
    • While growth appears to be normalising back to typical levels, few are predicting a recession, at least not in the near-term.
    • The 2-10 yield curve, while flat, is still yet to inverted, indicating a recession is unlikely for at least 12 - 24 months.
    • Most market fears such as trade tensions and political risks are man made and could very quickly be resolved if it becomes politically or economically expedient to do so.
    • Many large-cap stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, and FB have fallen over 25% at this point. During the finical crisis, which was quite a severe recession, stocks such as AAPL and AMZN fell around 50%. So unless the next recession is truly awful, I'm starting to wondering how much further these names can fall? Especially given the P/E on names like AAPL and FB.
    • WSB has begun to short SPY and large-cap stocks.

    What would be a good bear case for more selling at this point? Unless earnings start to show significant margin compression or an unexpected slowing in top-line growth I'm not sure why we wouldn't see a decent bounce from these levels early next year. From the data I've seen everything seems to point in the direction of a market over-reaction. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/kriptonicx
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    As fear rises on Wall Street, strategists warn the worst is yet to come. The CBOE Volatility Index jumped above 30, its highest since the major market sell-off in February of this year.

    Posted: 21 Dec 2018 02:56 AM PST

    "The market's in no man's land," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. Stocks have broken through the lows of the year, and technicians are scurrying to find the next support levels. On the S&P 500, he said 2,400 is a potential psychological area of support...

    https://stockmarketnews.today/2018/12/21/as-fear-rises-on-wall-street-strategists-warn-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-the-cboe-volatility-index-jumped-above-30-its-highest-since-the-major-market-sell-off-in-february-of-this-year/

    submitted by /u/AALERa
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    Juul is now worth more than SpaceX at a $38B valuation

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 01:32 PM PST

    The $12.8 billion deal, which Altria announced Thursday morning, is slated to give the maker of Marlboro a 35% stake in Juul, valuing the less than two-year-old vaping company at $38 billion.

    The new valuation is more than double the $16 billion valuation Juul last earned when it raised $650 million from investment fund Tiger Global just five months ago this summer. At that point, Juul became the fastest startup ever to reach a valuation of more than $10 billion dollars — beating the pace set by tech giants Facebook and Snap by four times.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/juul-now-worth-more-spacex-200705958.html

    submitted by /u/snailmailz
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    Could this be the start of a very long recession, such as previous ones that took many years to reach its previous highs?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 08:15 PM PST

    previous recessions took years to finally reach a bottom, and then took several more years to reach its previous highs. Or is this improbable and we are most likely going to end up positive by end of next year?

    submitted by /u/lucas23bb
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    Nvidia, oversold and great potential, the buy of a lifetime?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 08:48 PM PST

    For those of us who missed the Nvidia ($NVDA) train earlier this year, where it hit near $300, this seems like a great opportunity to go back in. It has fallen a ridiculous amount in the past several months and is now trading near $135. I am seriously considering using leverage to invest a considerable sum ($200k+) into Nvidia. It's chips are in use by self-driving cars, the machine-learning industry, and hard-core gamers. I do not see them losing out anytime soon.

    What does this sub think about Nvidia? Why will it succeed, or why will it fail?

    submitted by /u/ExternalCry
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    AMD set to be added to the NASDAQ 100

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 03:33 PM PST

    What is the difference between shorting SPY directly and buying shares in SQQQ?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 11:08 PM PST

    Title says it all, if my bank/brokerage account allows me to short sell the S&P 500 ETF, what is the point of buying something like SQQQ? I've read that SQQQ is "triple leveraged" and that I'm buying shares in an ETF that basically shorts the market every day, but I don't understand how those are functionally different. Is one less exposed to volatility but less likely to make money if the market really tanks?

    submitted by /u/_felix_felicis_
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    Treasury Secretary says market plunge totally overblown (CNBC)

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 09:00 AM PST

    Is there a market correction coming in the near future for esports?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 10:09 PM PST

    Esports insiders are increasingly convinced that many team organizations are overvalued and a market correction is coming.

    In the two years since traditional sports teams started acquiring esports organizations, faith in the long-term potential of video games has grown stronger. But pessimism about the short- and medium-term prospects of esports teams is also growing, as spending pressures grow faster than revenue. The terms at which some leading teams have raised additional investment capital appear divorced from standard business metrics.

    Full article: https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/12/20/is-there-a-market-correction-coming-for-esports.html

    submitted by /u/Visionswas
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    2 years ago, Steve Eisman of Big Short fame recommended financial stocks

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 07:50 PM PST

    Link here: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/5jdoyz/steve_eisman_of_the_big_short_fame_says_the_stock/?utm_source=reddit-android

    I put a reminder to see how this panned out. 2 years later, XLF is up about 2% annualized.

    submitted by /u/13104598210
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    Visualization of all time highs and percentage market drops over time since 1950

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 12:24 PM PST

    I was curious how anomalous the current situation. We're at around 85% of the all time high, which is a huge dip, but how common is this? To address this, I created a quick and dirty plot that I found interesting since I'd never seen these specific visualizations before.

    First I created a plot of the all time high: https://imgur.com/CcwUVfH and https://imgur.com/MotMaPc (semilog). For each month, we see the all time high as of the end of that month.

    Then to understand the intensity of the current dip, I created a plot showing how far the market dropped in any given month from the previous all time high: https://imgur.com/C31be4z

    For example, in March 2009, the market dipped to only 43% of its previous all time high. By January 2010, it had increased back up to 68% of its previous all time high.

    The reason this plot never hits 100% is that the value is computed at a monthly granularity. To be at 100%, the market would have to hit a new all time high (or match the previous all time high) every single day of the month.

    Some thing we can see from this plot:

    1. The last time we had a drop of this magnitude was around 2016, which was very short lived.
    2. Most drops of this magnitude are relatively short lived before there is a return to an all time high.
    3. Since 1950, there have been 3 very long periods where the all time high took a long time (many years) to reach again: The mid 70s, dot com burst, and great recession. It'd be interesting to see a better visualization to make this point more clear.

    Github here if anyone wants to make it prettier or do more interesting things: https://github.com/joshHug/stockvis

    Also imgur link that has all 3 images: https://imgur.com/a/6Z9HdBM

    submitted by /u/hoshjug
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    What if the S&P ends up looking like the Nikkei?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 08:35 PM PST

    What do we do then

    submitted by /u/torontohater
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    Please help exporting transactions from Wealthfront

    Posted: 21 Dec 2018 04:04 AM PST

    Trying to create a spreadsheet for tracking investments across accounts, and Wealthfront only offers the option to export into QFX format (for import into Quicken). It appears to be an XML file (example below).

    Anyone have a clue how to manipulate this into a simple column-based spreadsheet?

    I guess I'd also have to convert the CUSIP's into ticker symbols--not sure how to do that.

     <BUYSTOCK> <INVBUY> <INVTRAN> <FITID>1234567890.000000</FITID> <DTTRADE>20171002000000.000</DTTRADE> <DTSETTLE>20171002000000.000</DTSETTLE> </INVTRAN> <SECID> <UNIQUEID>74926P688</UNIQUEID> <UNIQUEIDTYPE>CUSIP</UNIQUEIDTYPE> </SECID> <UNITS>14.410000</UNITS> <UNITPRICE>1.00</UNITPRICE> <TOTAL>-14.41</TOTAL> <SUBACCTSEC>CASH</SUBACCTSEC> <SUBACCTFUND>CASH</SUBACCTFUND> </INVBUY> <BUYTYPE>BUY</BUYTYPE> </BUYSTOCK> 
    submitted by /u/nukem2k5
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    Daily advice thread. All questions about your personal situation should be asked here

    Posted: 21 Dec 2018 04:04 AM PST

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or anything similar. There is no single answer to this question, but we will also need A LOT MORE information if we are to give some sort of answer

    • How old are you?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors?)
    • Any other assets? House paid off? Cars? Expensive girlfriend? (not really an asset)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • Any big debts?
    • Any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Any Seedrs Success Stories

    Posted: 21 Dec 2018 04:01 AM PST

    I've seen a lot of threads on here regarding Seedrs being a poor investment with the main reason being that you're unable to sell your shares until / if they float or sell their business.

    But since the secondary market launched last year and it being 7 years old next year I was wondering if anyone has had success selling their shares?

    What was your return / loss?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/thebritisharecome
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    Some iPad Pros ship a little bent, Apple says that’s normal

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 06:53 PM PST

    https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/12/some-ipad-pros-ship-a-little-bent-and-apple-says-thats-normal/

    When The Verge reached out to Apple for comment, the company told the publication that the bending is "a side effect of the device's manufacturing process and shouldn't worsen over time or negatively affect the flagship iPad's performance in any practical way." (The Verge's words.) Apple says the bending happens as a result of a cooling process used on the components when the device is manufactured.

    Someone in the comments pointed this out:

    I'm sorry, but no! Pretty much all of Apple's products have their logic boards firmly screwed to the chassis. Look at what happened to the iPhone 6 Plus with touch issues and the iPhone 7 series with audio issues due to micro flexion of the board causing the tracks to break, the M1 and the C12 pads respectively. This level of flex on a logic board can be catastrophic. It may not show issues now, but absolutely will in future just like the aforementioned products.

    I personally don't believe it would have any major impact on their smartphone and tablet sales, but lack of attention to detail could be an issue down the road.

    submitted by /u/COMPUTER1313
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    U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil Corp has withdrawn its WCC liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project in Canada from an environmental assessment, it said on Thursday, signaling that the project has been shelved

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 11:43 AM PST

    Amazon’s Grocery Push Keeps Stumbling After Whole Foods Purchase

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 04:43 AM PST

    Whose Is That Big Pile Of Corporate Debt In The Corner?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2018 02:17 AM PST

    Global non-financial corporate debt hit record high in second quarter: IIF

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-debt/global-non-financial-corporate-debt-hit-record-high-in-second-quarter-iif-idUSKCN1NX2WH

    "IIF wrote in the report that one-third of small firms in France, the United States and China have an interest coverage ratio under levels generally accepted as optimal, meaning a sharp hike in interest rates could hurt their ability to stay current in their debt payments."

    Furthermore, I couldn't find this article, since it was in my Reuters platform, but here it is;

    Whose Is That Big Pile Of Corporate Debt In The Corner?

    The Fed's more hawkish than expected tone has triggered a selloff across markets. There's a growing feeling that further tightening of financial conditions is bad news for equity markets but also credit markets which are already looking risky.

    TS Lombard note this morning that spreads have risen across investment-grade and high-yield debt in Europe and the U.S., reflecting "concerns about the high level of U.S. corporate debt and its deteriorating quality." One important issue is where that lower-quality debt is actually held, writes Man Group.

    "As we head towards the end of the credit cycle, we feel it is important to consider exactly who owns the $3.4 trillion of sub investment-grade corporate debt," analysts at the hedge fund write.

    That's the equivalent of Germany's GDP last year.

    Of total sub investment-grade corporate debt, $1.1 trillion is owned by banks with the rest ($2.3 trillion) held by asset managers and institutional owners.

    Though Man Group says they don't traditionally think of asset managers as a systemic risk, they say liquidity could dry up if sub-investment grade corporate debt drops in value.

    Moving on down the chain of debt-derivative products, they advise investors to hone in on collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) used to tranche and sell sub-IG debt.

    As you can see below, some of these are held by unspecified "other investors", according to a breakdown by the Bank of England cited by Man Group.

    "With very little visibility in this part of the CLO market, how this "black hole" will react in the event of a downturn remains to be seen," the analysts conclude, ominously.

    I posted this since I regularly see writers at this sub stating that it is buying time and that the downturns are primarily driven by mass-psychology, since the falls of October ensued.

    (I'll see if I can find a post I wrote in October on this subject-matter, as it had some extraordinary excellent articles that expanded on this topic. If I'll find that post, it'll be posted in a separate post in this thread\).*

    It is my opinion that this isn't the case and has been very clear right from the start, with explanatory factors relating to the increasing corporate debt sectors as major risk-factors.

    I believe the ensuing yield-curve inversion is a reflection of these realizations, and that the current geopolitical battle between the U.S and China in terms of the trade-war, won't have a positive impact even if there is a mutually beneficial trade-deal between the U.S. and China.

    If there'd be a deal, there'd be a "sell the news" event, since it would be overshadowed by other factors trumping that initial stint of optimism.

    If we see a severe deterioration in debt-servicing by companies and fundamental indicators in the U.S. such as corporate profits declining and interest rates rising further we're going to see this spreading to Europe too via the derivatives exposures of banks.

    It is furthermore a matter of time before wages start eating into corporate profits in the U.S. as demonstrated by the record-lows of unemployment, which is an additional burdening factor coupled with rising interest costs.

    Personally, I have only traded short positions ever since the ViX began its ascent since October this year, due to these underlying factors.

    I believe this will escalate further, and we'll see continuing drops until at least Q2 of 2019, and thus continue shorting.

    It'll reverse when the FED comes in and tries to save the party (as usual\),* via loosening monetary policy or if there is a debt-crisis, a deleveraging of restructuring has occurred.

    submitted by /u/snaxks1
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    What happens to an investment account when someone passes away?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 10:04 PM PST

    So I've recently taught my wife how to use Interactive Brokers, in case I pass away. Especially how to get the money out from it if she needs it.

    She already doesn't remember how to use it and doesn't care.

    So I already know if something happens to me, my investments will just stay there forever.

    Which brought up a question. Are there investments from the 80s and 90s that are still accumulating profit, and will they stay there forever without anyone knowing? How are these handled without anyone knowing if the lack of activity is just for the sake of long-term investment?

    submitted by /u/kikipi
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    I’m interested in MU, any reason you guys are down on their long term future?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 12:35 PM PST

    I like their finances but there seem to be an equal number of people that dislike the company's future prospects to the number of people that are looking at the company positively.

    To anyone that owns MU, what things most concern you for the long term future of the company and what things contribute to a brighter outlook?

    submitted by /u/vhindy
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    Diversifying

    Posted: 20 Dec 2018 09:07 PM PST

    My 401k is in Vanguard, I'm ready to fully fund a IRA for the first year, too. I first thought it would be handy to do a Vanguard IRA, but then worried a bit that both are just directed at the same target year retirement fund with the same firm. Thoughts? Suggestions?

    submitted by /u/JanuaryDraught
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