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    Tuesday, November 27, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

    Stocks - r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018


    r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 09:06 AM PST

    Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:

    Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:

    Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?

    The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

    TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.

    Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

    Terminology

    • Indicator - a calculation based on price and/or volume, it can be displayed as a line/number on a chart or watch list; some indicators use statistics like standard deviation such as the Bollinger Bands indicator
    • trade signals - when an indicator tells you that a buy or sell (short) entry is available (also called buy signal or sell signal)
    • lagging indicator - based on past prices, for example the Moving Average indicator
    • leading indicator - typically oscillators which fluctuate from 0 to 100 and back, and these typically measure the rate of change; they also generate overbought, oversold, and divergence, all of which help create trade signals
    • oversold - a trade signal for when to buy, for example RSI below 30, however it's best to wait when the RSI line points upwards past 30 before buying
    • overbought - the opposite of oversold; for RSI it's above 70
    • divergence - when an indicator and stock price move inversely which foreshadows a coming change in the price
    • whipsaw - when trade signals & price suddenly reverse either stopping you out or making you exit your trade
    • resistance - an area on a chart where price can't seem to go higher. The main reason is that no one is willing to buy above that price or there's more sellers than buyers.
    • support - an area on a chart where price can't seem to go lower. The main reason is no one is willing to sell below that price or there's more buyers than sellers.
    • breakout/breakdown - when price breaks support or resistance
    • alerts - a notification for when price hits your desired target, some software allows you to place the alert direction on a chart
    • level ii - This shows all bid & ask orders from market makers, usually your broker charges a fee for this, and is only really usual for day trading
    • trend line - can be a moving average, previous day's high, an indicator, you can even draw a line connecting all the highs or lows for example
    • Market participants - also includes market makers, institutions, and retail & institutional investors. Different markets have different participants such as futures (hedgers & speculators) and forex (banks & speculators).

    Useful indicators

    • Moving average (MA) - lagging indicator that averages previous prices, for example MA 20 will average the previous 20 days; MAs do not predict price movements, they smooth out price changes. Common averages are 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200. Typically you use 2 to 3 per chart.
    • RSI - relative strength index, takes the average gain of the stock price divided by the average loss over a number of periods, default 14; starts to reverse when it points down from 70 (sell signal) and reverses agian when it points up from 30 (buy signal)
    • VWAP - intraday indicator, takes the average price and weighs it by volume, basically you want to be short below VWAP and go long above VWAP; near the VWAP line (or price) there can be lots of whipsaw
    • MACD - combines momentum & trend indicators; gives off many trade signals including ovebought/sold and divergence, see link here note that the histogram in the center shows how wide the MACD & Signal line are from each other
    • ATR - Average true range gives a number that tells you how wide price movements are, great for helping set stops. ATR on a daily chart of 5 means average price movement of 5 points, typically you would have a stop loss 2x ATR so in this case it would be 10 point wide stop. If a stop loss of 2x ATR is too high for you, then trade a different stock.
    • Bollinger Bands (BB) - takes the standard deviation of price times 2 (default); in statistics, 95% of all values are within 2 standard deviations. BB is typically used for resistance and support, more info here.
    • Ichimoku clouds - Combines even more indicators, good for beginners, see here

    Methods or Systems

    • Trend Following - Basically you're buying shares as a stock is going up or shorting as it's going down. Investopedia's intro to trend trading.
    • Fading - shorting as price falls from resistance, or buying as price rises from support
    • Channels - very much like fading except you find 2 parallel trend lines that price has been bouncing between, see here
    • Patterns - Double tops, head & shoulders, and cup & handle are the most watched for, see here for more, don't get too caught up in patterns.
    • Breakouts/Breakdowns - while patterns can be attractive, breakouts/breakdowns happen all the time; here's one way to take advantage of them
    • Pivots - these used to be for pit traders in the exchange, just 5 numbers they needed to navigate the day's price movements, but are still used online and stock prices tend to breakout or reverse off these pivot lines

    Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Alright, so you see a potential stock of your interest. You've looked at a chart, stats (Beta, P/E, Dividends, etc). Where do you do more advanced research?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 05:03 AM PST

    I always find nice looking charts and look at some Yahoo Finance stats but where else do you do research to truly understand the company, its revenue stream, history, etc?

    submitted by /u/hzprods
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    Because Apple wants to push Apple News, the stocks app no longer shows press releases

    Posted: 26 Nov 2018 05:09 PM PST

    This seems like pretty crappy design to me. It makes the app useless, especially in the smaller caps.

    submitted by /u/itsstevenweinstein
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    Old paper Disney stock certs. What to do with them?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 12:53 PM PST

    As it turns out I have three existing shares in DIS from the 90s that I got as gifts when I was a kid. My parents found the certificates. What can I do with them?

    submitted by /u/sierra400
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    100$ invested every two weeks

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 04:04 AM PST

    Hey all, I've decided that I'm going to start investing 100$ out of each paycheck into stock and was looking for some advice. For the first couple of weeks I think I'm going to invest in companies that I like and believe will prosper in the future. After words should I look into companies that offer a dividend to earn a little income or should I look into smaller companies. How would you guys start to build and develop your portfolio?

    submitted by /u/Smahmood2
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    Trump’s tweet has no effect on BABA and TCHEY anymore?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 09:41 AM PST

    He said he will increase tariff to 25%, but BaBa and tencent does not drop today? Looks like market had get used to his threats?

    submitted by /u/xenocloud1989
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    Winners and Losers Thread

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 10:39 AM PST

    What have been your winners and losers this year? This market correction has been a great, albeit expensive lesson that I'm not special and beating the market is hard. So I wanted to share mine and also hear what were your winners and losers this year?

    • Winners:
      • CGC
      • DIS
      • MSFT
      • SBUX
      • SHOP
      • SQ
      • TLRY
    • Losers:
      • AAPL
      • ADBE
      • AEO
      • CRM
      • FB
      • GOOGL
      • NFLX
      • NVDA
      • TCEHY
      • V
      • WMT

    Obviously I made the mistake of over-investing in tech and have paid for it. Overall my portfolio is down ~5% as of this writing but it would be closer to 15% if I didn't get lucky with the weed stocks.

    submitted by /u/taiwansteez
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    Thoughts on investing $10k in DIS?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 11:23 AM PST

    I read that most of their revenue (as of late), have come from Media networks --> Parks and resorts --> Studio Entertainment.

    2019 movies that they are part of:

    Avengers 4
    Captain Marvel
    Spiderman
    Lion King
    Frozen 2
    Toy Story 4
    Aladdin
    Dumbo

    How much will these affect their stock share price? My bet is it most definitely will increase by the end of 2019? Would it be worth selling in 2010 for the profit or the usual buy and hold indefinitely? (Also new to investing < 6 months)

    Quarter filings to the SEC:
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=1001039&accession_number=0001001039-18-000187&xbrl_type=v#

    submitted by /u/jonathant4563
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    EPS charts

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 07:28 AM PST

    Hi, I'm looking for a a chart that shows historical data for companies quarterly EPS.

    Right now I use profitspi, but I don't think the chart is accurate.

    Thanks I'm advance

    submitted by /u/Thementalistt
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    App that lets you track your portfolio (purchase/sale price vs current price)

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 10:27 AM PST

    I sold about half of my portfolio a little over a month ago. My goal is to repurchase the same stocks when we are as close to the bottom as possible. I've been trying to find an app that shows me the price I sold at versus the current price so that I have an easy way to determine when the price is low enough that it makes sense to repurchase. Currently I'm comparing a spreadsheet I made to the price on Yahoo, which isn't super convenient. I haven't had any luck finding an app that does what I would like. Any suggestions? Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/louislamore
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    Renowned Global Investor Predicts Fall Of US Dollar And Bets On Chinese Market

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 01:22 PM PST

    Jim Rogers, author of "A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market" and a renowned investor who co-founded the first global investment fund with George Soros in 1973, has made numerous extraordinary predictions about trade market in the past, including the fall of the US dollar.
    He last predicted the crash of U.S. real estate in 2006 before the subprime crisis happened in 2007. As a pioneer of investment in China's shares in the 90's, Rogers has an extensive understanding of the red dragon economy and believes some Chinese industries have a rich future ahead.

    Rogers owns Chinese fintech companies like Beijing-based Tiger Broker and feels there are abundant possibilities in Chinese stocks. His favorite are those backed by the Chinese government like pollution clean-up when it comes to water, air, and soil; agriculture; and healthcare.

    He predicts Chinese tourism will increase exponentially over the next ten to 20 years, as the country's citizens have a stronger purchasing power to spend overseas.

    When questioned about the likelihood of Fed hikes that may affect the world economy, his answer was that other central banks would have to follow suit and take their interest rates higher.

    "Interest rates have never been like this in the history of the world," he said. "Central banks do not know what is happening and it is their experiment at best. The world's debts will increase as a result of the interest rates going higher."

    He believes that although China's financial markets have not been performing lately, China will be leading the race when it comes time for the bull market.

    His position, he says, is because the US dollar is "getting worse and worse." Although he admits to still owning American currency, Rogers stated that, "In the next few years the American dollar is going to lose its position as the world's reserve currency and the world's medium of exchange." He added that the world has moved away from dominant currencies throughout history.

    "They all had that position at one time or another but then went to excess and are not that sound anymore, they lost their position. People don't like Washington's power, so they are moving away and finding ways to get away from the dollar. It has happened throughout history, it happened to the pound sterling, you know the rest of that story," he said.

    He praised Turkey and Russia as countries that are starting to trade with each other in their own currencies. "Everybody is now trying to get rid of the US dollar," Rogers said.

    The possible currency that could replace the greenback is China's renminbi, he said, but that it would be "impossible for a while" because it is not convertible yet. He added that the world could have a few regional currencies for some time, but that there is no point in having more than one dominant currency.

    Rogers currently lives in Singapore and runs Rogers Holding and Beeland Interests Inc.

    src: https://goldsilverbitcoin.com/renowned-global-investor-predicts-fall-us-dollar-bets-chinese-market/

    submitted by /u/jumb0bang
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    r/Stocks Daily Discussion Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 04:06 AM PST

    These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday.

    Some helpful links:

    If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

    Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..

    See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    $100,000 portfolio

    Posted: 26 Nov 2018 05:28 PM PST

    You have a brand new $100k TDAmeritrade account. What would you buy right now or by end of the year?

    EDIT:

    Spending on yourself going to Vegas or buying a materialistic item doesn't count.

    submitted by /u/m-bored-ok
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    $LOW and its restructuring

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 02:24 AM PST

    Is it too aggressive? Asking for a friend ;)

    submitted by /u/ElSuperQuaz
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    Why is SPTM down more than VTI today?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 10:47 AM PST

    Shouldn't these two be basically the same?

    I'm a SPTM holder because I get free buys on it but am frustrated because it is lower than the market in general, and comparable offerings.

    submitted by /u/caedin8
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    How likely is it that Trump will actually impose 10-25% tariffs on Apple products?

    Posted: 26 Nov 2018 05:30 PM PST

    In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he's going to be putting tariffs on iPhone's in the range of 10-25%. Of course the stock plummeted even more after hours because of this. Personally I'm terrified for what will happen to the stock (given their current trouble) if he were to go through with this.

    I am admittedly very ignorant on the topic of tariffs. But this, to me at least, seems mind-bogglingly unethical and hostile to be saying these kinds of things before he has even made his decision. It just seems so deliberately harmful to a company that I'm wondering how it is even legal to target large companies by name and hurt them in the press with wishy-washy numbers.

    EDIT — Just in Case: I am not trying to get into a debate on politics. I know many of us have differing ethical systems and ideologies and I do not want to get into arguments about it. I'm specifically asking about this tariff issue.

    submitted by /u/AntipodalBurrito
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    Is Ascent Industries Corp (CNSX: ASNT) a good marijuana stock?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 06:09 AM PST

    Total newbie here in trading, but I'm a big believer in that marijuana might make it big and according to their website they are international and have branches in Canada, USA and Denmark. Their stock is plummeting and it's dirt cheap at the moment (0,20 Canadian Dollar). Do they stand a chance against Aurora Cannabis and Canopy growth and is worth investing in them? Thanks in advance for helping a newbie out.

    submitted by /u/Matthias10000
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    Opinions on buying Sherritt international stock?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 09:24 AM PST

    Cobalt mining company out of Canada, could be useful for the manufacturing of electric car batteries thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Oxygen102565
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    Trumps tax bubble and the Mueller Report

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 06:12 AM PST

    One thing stock markets like to do is price things in.

    When the Mueller Report drops, if it's bad, the stock market is going to price in Republican defeat in the senate (corruption / coverup) and presidency in 2020 (nuff said).

    The dems, now in control of all 3 branches, will have to address the massive deficit and repeal trumps tax cuts. Those earning gains evaporate. It's essentially a bubble.

    The market will see it coming. I expect to see dow 19000 in the coming months. Are you prepared?

    submitted by /u/sleepyfries
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    Insider Trading Based on Politics

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 05:56 AM PST

    Does anybody trade based on "conspiracy theory".. seems like it could be profitable if you follow the money based on corrupt politicians pushing bills/agendas like climate change (e.g. Podesta and Obama involvement in FSLR)... Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/MrFunraiser
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    Is rally in value and low volatility stocks set to fade?

    Posted: 27 Nov 2018 05:20 AM PST

    Is recent rally in value & low volatility stocks at mercy of flattening US treasury curve? During periods of downturns in the stock market, growth has outperformed.

    At the moment, low-volatility stocks are on pace for their best Qtr since CY2011! Similarly, value has been beating growth for the past 4 weeks!

    The flattening treasury curve is being driven by a deceleration global GDP growth which is typically bad for value stocks.

    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    What is GOOGLE's P/E?

    Posted: 26 Nov 2018 04:38 PM PST

    I am seeing 25 on sites like trading view and calculating their last quarters EPS, it seems to be like 25 as well. But a lot of people say it's 40..?

    What is their P/E?

    submitted by /u/JCvalentyne
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    Should i buy a splitting stock?

    Posted: 26 Nov 2018 03:08 PM PST

    Utx is planning on splitting into 3 companies. Should I buy in or is it a bad idea?

    submitted by /u/Get_Merped_brochacho
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