BlackRock voted to replace Tesla's Musk with an independent chairman Investing |
- BlackRock voted to replace Tesla's Musk with an independent chairman
- All major tech stocks are now some of the most shorted stocks.....
- We’re shorting Square Inc (SQ) and this is why you should too
- Bombshell leak to Toronto Star upends NAFTA talks: In secret ‘so insulting’ remarks, Trump says he isn’t compromising at all with Canada
- EA to make a comeback?
- What to study to better understand financial markets or investing in general
- Potentially stupid Q: if Trump is good for big business, why is the S&P500 outperforming the Dow Jones?
- FYERS Policies On Physical Settlement Of Stock Derivatives
- Can we have a quick discussion on how market cap weighted index funds work?
- Over the weekend
- [Question]: Puts-y footing around?
- EA over 10% drop
- Anyone ever try sleuthing companies by looking at the content of their employees' Linkedin profiles?
- Flexible backtesting framework?
- India's GDP grows at 8.2 per cent in 2018-19 Q1
- Why does my index funds clearly state when I get dividends but my wife's index fund doesn't?
- What will make US market become Japan market?
- Why did some of the big tech giants rise to much over the past few years?
- Have anyone of you made your own "mutual fund" and invest in that consistently. What's your criteria for that mutual fund?
- Can someone please explain to me what happened with acsf?
- Is there a bullish case for Papa Johns (PZZA)?
| BlackRock voted to replace Tesla's Musk with an independent chairman Posted: 31 Aug 2018 05:12 AM PDT |
| All major tech stocks are now some of the most shorted stocks..... Posted: 01 Sep 2018 03:27 AM PDT At the bottom: " Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O), Netflix (NFLX.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Facebook Inc (FB.O), are some other top shorted U.S. stocks, as some investors have bet the high-flying technology names are due for a pullback. " Also amazon is now #1 most shorted stock. [link] [comments]  |
| We’re shorting Square Inc (SQ) and this is why you should too Posted: 31 Aug 2018 12:52 PM PDT Description Square (SQ) is a payment processor which caters to small businesses. At $88.00 we think SQ has 65% downside to fair value of $36.00. The basic premise of the short thesis is: FDC is the industry giant with close to 40% market share, over the past 18 months they have put a ton of resources behind their Clover product which is aimed directly at SQ, it is currently growing 50% and is on pace to be a larger business than SQ by 2020. Additionally, they have finally gotten their act together with digital customer onboarding (SQ's primary early competitive edge) and will launch the capabilities through their massive distribution channel starting in the 2H 2018. Odds are slim that this will not impact SQ competitively and slow their growth rate. SQ's core payment processing business growth has in fact already slowed and accelerating top line growth is being driven by more cyclical and risky businesses such as short term working capital loans (Instant Deposit) and lending origination (Square Capital). As a point of reference, Square does not control underwriting for their Square Capital product, if banks decided to stop lending to their micro merchants and originations dried up it would take EBIT down by about 35%. SQ's customers are by far the most exposed to any kind of economic downturn, close to 60% do less than $125k in volume every year and close to 85% do less than $500k. Given the above points SQ's valuation is absurd. It trades at close to 20x sales and 68x EBITDA. This is even more disgusting given that of the $245M of EBITDA the street is expecting this year about $215M will be stock comp which everyone is happy to back out (the share count was 360m in 2016 and it will end this year at 480m). Our fair value target is 30x our 2020 eps estimate of $1.20. Our estimates assume continued strong growth in both processing and services with steady economic growth, should a recession occur there would be significant downside to our estimates/target. First Data As mentioned above, FDC is the 800lb gorilla in the industry. We think SQ has been a benefactor of the issues FDC has been having in their bank JV channel for the past 18 months or so stemming mostly from WFC's branch commission scandal. The JV channel was always a crown jewel for FDC because anyone who walked into a major bank to apply for a small business loan would have the processing relationship jammed in their face upon closing the deal. Starting in Q4 of 2017 the leads generated from this channel flattened out after declining by roughly 20% and it feels like the bottom has been reached, as the banks start generating more leads its reasonable to assume some portion would be at SQ's expense. SQ's early competitive edge was digital onboarding. It takes 10 minutes and can be done without assistance. Expenses are lower and the customer doesn't have to deal with greasy salespeople. Until now FDC had been way behind the curve but starting in the 2H of this year they will roll it out across all channels. This is particularly important in the JV channel given their bank partners have a combined 6m small business accounts. At current run rate SQ will do about $80B in GPV for 2018 its growth rate will be around 30%. Over the same time period FDC's Clover will do $60B in GPV and growth 50% or so. Clover is a direct competitor to SQ and industry chatter on the platform is increasingly positive. We think that if nothing else this shows that SQ does not have a "moat" and the payments processing industry is mature and quite competitive. SQ's valuation suggests it's business model is unique and difficult to replicate, Clover's success and growth indicates the opposite. Square Capital and Instant Deposit Another reason SQ gets such a fancy multiple is because investors are excited about the accelerating revenue growth rate driven by the "Subscription and Services-Based" segment. This accounts for 33% of the total business and grew 98% y/y in Q1. About 65% of this segment is Square Capital and Instant Deposit and the remaining 35% other odds and ends with the largest chunk being their restaurant delivery service Caviar. While the growth is both real and impressive we don't think investors are baking in the cyclical risks of the lending businesses. The risks to Square Capital are pretty obvious. Banks originate the loans and SQ takes 8-15% off the top. No originations = no revenue and its basically pure profit. We believe this will be $70m in revs/EBIT this year. Instant Deposit has been the major growth engine for the past 12 months. In 2016 it didn't exist and this year it will likely be a $180M business. Merchants get charged a 1% for instant settlement of funds versus the standard T+3. First of all this is very expensive, PYPL does it for a $0.25 flat fee and larger banks do it for free. So why does SQ get this? Our guess would be that nobody else wants to extend credit to these merchants. SQ claims the risk is minimal because payments are taken directly out of the merchant's gross receipts, however, there is nothing to stop them from abandoning their terminal if business gets tough. The company has always said a lot of their customers didn't take cards before signing up, so there isn't a lot stopping them from going back to cash. This will be about $190m of revs this year with high contribution margins. Valuation On a day to day basis SQ seems to want to trade with the FANG complex and it wears a valuation to match that characterization trading at close to 20x sales. Our issue is that there is nothing recurring about the business model, attrition is close to 20% annually, and their customers will be the first to fold in a downturn. We think its true comps are FDC/WP/GPN which trade at between 12-19x forward earnings. SQ deserves a premium due to its growth rate so we think 30x 2020 eps is reasonable. I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy. I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities. Catalyst core revenue growth continues to slow investors catch on to the nature of Instant Deposit/Square Capital's cyclicality the FANG complex comes back down to earth [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 09:21 AM PDT |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:52 PM PDT A 10% decrease seems like an over reaction to the shooting as well as the pushback of battlefield - as more news comes out surrounding how good the alpha is over the next week I'm expecting a bounce back. Luckily waited to buy 9/7 $118C until today when they were cheap, but of a risk with the short trading week ahead but believe the stock can begin to rally on Tuesday and Wednesday so I can exit my position profitably on Wednesday or Thursday. Open to any thoughts? I only put $900 or so in, but am starting to think I should've pushed it off for another couple of weeks. [link] [comments]  |
| What to study to better understand financial markets or investing in general Posted: 31 Aug 2018 08:15 PM PDT Hi hi hi. I'm about to finish my PhD and my thesis is about prediction of financial markets. Anyway, I'd like to study something else after I finish my PhD. I was thinking about studying Chinese, but then I thought about studying somethinf related to investing. Do you have any recommendations? Maybe a master's in finance. Thank you very much in advance! EDIT: PhD in Computer Science. Thesis: using computational intelligence (neural networks and other stuff) to predict financial markets [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Sep 2018 03:36 AM PDT |
| FYERS Policies On Physical Settlement Of Stock Derivatives Posted: 01 Sep 2018 03:33 AM PDT Our regulator, SEBI has implemented physical settlements of stock derivatives in line with the recommendations made by the L.C Gupta committee. For more information on this, please read the circular issued by them on 11th April 2018. Subsequently, NSE issued a circular on 23rd April 2018 about the revision in the settlement mechanism in the equity derivatives segment which highlights a list of 46 stocks which will be settled physically form July expiry onwards. [link] [comments]  |
| Can we have a quick discussion on how market cap weighted index funds work? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 03:46 PM PDT So in the last several days there have been a few posts on how ETF may cause the next bubble/crash and I think it is caused by people not understanding how most market cap index funds work. The theory is as Apple, amazon, Microsoft market cap grows, the index funds have to purchase more of them what causes the price to rise what causes the index funds to buy more of them and causes some sort of positive feed back loop and in a crash a negative one will also develop. So what people fail to grasp is index funds hold actual shares of those companies . So as the share price of the company rises, guess what, the index funds holding of that company automatically rises too! Remember they actually own shares, its not like they invest a flat $3 billion into apple then need to purchase more. They have 10 million shares that are worth 2.5 billion. As apples share price increases their 10 million shares are now worth 3 billion, they do not need to buy more shares to increase their holding because they already own apple shares! As long as an index fund is created at the proper weight or is expanded when new money flows in at the proper weight it is self-balancing. There is no positive or negative feedback loop going on. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Sep 2018 02:57 AM PDT |
| [Question]: Puts-y footing around? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 06:43 PM PDT Would someone be willing to explain why someone would sell/buy Puts? I'm curious on having some sort of insurance on securities I currently hold from steep price drops, and also thinking of having passive income from put sales. My main question is why would someone write a put contract for a company? Are they just betting the share price won't fall so they can collect on the put premium? If that is the case, would I be able to create puts for sale through a brokerage account, or is that only available as a strategy from the company that issued the shares? I've read a few articles on the basis of puts this one made the most sense so far: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/120401.asp [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 08:12 AM PDT EA is looking quite attractive at its current price, BofA has a 126 price target. [link] [comments]  |
| Anyone ever try sleuthing companies by looking at the content of their employees' Linkedin profiles? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 04:18 PM PDT A person I know who is an editor and digital artist for a newspaper recently included screenshots of company emails from one of their higher-ups on his profile praising his team for more than doubling their average article engagement time in a few months. This got me thinking that there are probably at least a few gold nuggets of detailed insight into the workings or status of companies on people's public Linkedin accounts that would otherwise be restricted to insiders. So, has anyone ever had luck with this strategy if it's viable at all? [link] [comments]  |
| Flexible backtesting framework? Posted: 01 Sep 2018 12:41 AM PDT Is someone able to recommend an online backtesting framework like https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com but that allows more flexibility on algorithm creation? I am fine with Python. Thanks folks! [link] [comments]  |
| India's GDP grows at 8.2 per cent in 2018-19 Q1 Posted: 31 Aug 2018 05:09 AM PDT The Make In India campaign seems to be hitting momentum with manufacturing growing at almost 13%. The value of the Indian manufacturing sector is also at an all time high [link] [comments]  |
| Why does my index funds clearly state when I get dividends but my wife's index fund doesn't? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 11:33 AM PDT I have a named fund (ex. American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund® Class R-6) but my wife, through her company, has an index fund managed by Black Rock that as far as I can tell is classified as a 'Non US Equity Index' and maybe is not public (ex. there is no Morningstar rating). My question is that while I clearly see when I get a dividend payment (ex. Dec 22nd) for my fund under the Dividend section of the Fidelity website but for her fund, I have never seen that (she also is managed through Fidelity). Do they just wrap it in automatically? How do I tell what was the total dividend she received and when it was paid (or wrapped into the fund)? [link] [comments]  |
| What will make US market become Japan market? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 10:58 AM PDT I always heard if you hold SP500 20 years. You will always earn money and the interest rate is higher than bank. This is true for US market, but not true for other markets like Japan. What happens in the past does not always happen in the future. SO what are some factors/situation that will make US market become Japan market? [link] [comments]  |
| Why did some of the big tech giants rise to much over the past few years? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 07:39 PM PDT Since the financial crisis, both the general stock market and the tech sector have seen incredible growth. However, the growth of the tech sector has been much more than that of the general market (over double), and the deviation in growth rates has increased in the more recent years (2018 being the most extreme): https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spx/interactive-chart Based on some things I've read, the growth of the FAANG stocks greatly contributed to the overall growth of the tech sector: Amazon, Google, and Facebook, in particular, have seen tremendous growth even though they were already big to begin with. I checked the revenue charts of these three companies over the last few years and, subjectively speaking, they look almost as dramatic as the price increases. What I'm confused about is where that revenue growth is coming from. Anecdotally speaking, my friends and I are buying just as much stuff from Amazon, spend about as much time on Facebook and Google services as five years ago. Is the revenue growth of these companies growing because low-income individuals have started using these services? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2018 07:15 PM PDT I am talking about investing consistently in 10 or 20 companies instead of using any financial company's offerings. What are the downsides, upsides? [link] [comments]  |
| Can someone please explain to me what happened with acsf? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 06:04 PM PDT I don't understand why they paid out such a large dividend and what that means for the future of the fund. I would appreciate some insight, thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Is there a bullish case for Papa Johns (PZZA)? Posted: 31 Aug 2018 05:31 PM PDT |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment