• Breaking News

    Monday, March 5, 2018

    Stock Market - Market rebound continues; all S&P sectors higher today.

    Stock Market - Market rebound continues; all S&P sectors higher today.


    Market rebound continues; all S&P sectors higher today.

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 01:08 PM PST

    Already up 60% this year, a pair of analysts see Netflix rising even higher

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:28 AM PST

    Main Points are:

    • Both UBS and Macquarie on Monday hiked their price targets on Netflix, citing strong content and increased adoption of 4K ultra-high-definition television, respectively.

    • The second season of Netflix's "Stranger Things" garnered higher search interest than every season of HBO's "Game of Thrones" in the U.S., according to UBS research

    • The prevalence of 4K televisions in North America could reach 50 percent by 2020, up from 12 percent in 2016, Macquarie says.

    • Shares of Netflix rose Monday after the analysts' calls, up nearly 3 percent. Netflix is up 61 percent in 2018 versus the S&P 500's 1.3 percent climb.

    Published by CNBC.com (CNBC) Link (Source): https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/already-up-60-percent-this-year-a-pair-of-analysts-see-netflix-rising-even-higher.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    submitted by /u/snack-fu-bling
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    Is there a site that reports brokerage recommendation changes as they occur?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 08:16 AM PST

    There used to be free newswire services that reported on brokerage stock upgrades/downgrades/reaffirmations as they occur, but the sites I used no longer exist. Any recommendations?

    submitted by /u/GeneralRobert
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    Insider trading ahead of government headlines?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:38 AM PST

    Given the volatility in the last few weeks I have a big suspicion there is some collusion going on between top institutions and the highest government officials. For example:

    • The big sell-off in the 1st week of February came a week ahead of Trump's statements on trade and tariffs. In fact, it was reported Carl Icahn dumped millions in shares of steel companies before trump's announcement. Many have said this decline was triggered by expectation of a hawkish 2018, but that was the expectation for months already, so it's quite hard to believe investors suddenly "woke up".

    • Today, stocks were poised to continue their decline in light of Trump's trade war comments, however the market suddenly started raising, and quite powerfully. Then, at noon, we see headlines of Paul Ryan's split with Trump over tariffs.

    Is this all coincidence or are high government figures feeding information to big investors?

    submitted by /u/omarm1984
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    Monday's Stock Winner of the Day: NFLX (Netflix)

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 12:42 PM PST

    QS List: Top 10 Private companies that will never go Public

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 03:18 AM PST

    why lose control, be under pressure to deliver short-term, and be undervalued. Here are the 10 privately-held companies that will never become publicly-traded because of those reasons:

    • Koch Industries (conglomerate - USA) #1
    • Mars Inc ( consumer products, others - USA) #2
    • Valve Corporation (gaming - USA) #3
    • Cox Enterprises (conglomerate - USA) #4
    • Albertsons (retailing - USA) #5
    • Bertelsmann (mass media - Germany) #6
    • ZeniMax Inc. (gaming - USA) #7
    • Lego Group (toys - Denmark) #8
    • MGA Entertainment (toys - USA) #9
    • National Amusements (mass media - USA) #10

    Note: which other companies do you folks think will never lose their souls. Let me know below.

    Another Note: National Amusements owns CBS (CBS.A) and Viacom (VIA.B) both are publicly-traded.

    Published by Quickisode via QS List.

    submitted by /u/snack-fu-bling
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    Can someone explain the benefits of investing (need help)

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 07:23 PM PST

    So I'm really new and pretty confused. I try to read what I can but I'm lost. I'm having a hard time understanding where and exactly when the investor actually benefits. I don't have a lot of money but the past few months I've been investing what I can. (I'm not going to say what shares I own because knwoing the internet I'll get a story about random opinions which is not what I'm looking for) So right now I own 1 share in Y (250$) and 61 shares in X (726$). Company X doesnt pay cash dividends but is on track to do very well these next two quarters so if their stocks rise my share value goes up. Lets say in 2 months I gain 300$ on the share value what the hell do I go from there? I cant touch that money unless I sell and if I sell well then I just have overall less value. And what if I decided to buy and hold shares of company x for 10 year and hypothetically the shares went up and down over those years but fell at my average cost after 10 year I benefited how exactly from holding that company in my portfolio for ten years?

    I put what I can into my account but its not a lot and even when my shares climb I dont feel very accomplished. Someone please help me here

    submitted by /u/WintersDawn184
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    Do Trade Patterns Actually Work

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 06:20 PM PST

    New trader and I'm wondering if the trading patterns you can find online actually work

    submitted by /u/jdoubled01
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    ROBO vs BOTZ?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 05:01 PM PST

    Which one would you go for considering an optimism on AI/Robotics in the future?

    submitted by /u/TimLEarn
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    Adding International Exposure to your Portfolio for Diversification and Enhanced Returns

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:29 AM PST

    Over the last 12-months, investors who chose to focus their portfolio allocations on US equity markets have been proven to be smart. On a trailing 12-month basis, the Russell 2000 is up 10.0%, the S&P 500 is up 14.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 26.29%. In any time period, these returns would be very good and they especially look compelling given the backdrop of political uncertainty, expensive valuations and a hawkish Federal Reserve last year. However, while these returns are very attractive, it is tough to ignore the returns of international equity markets, in particular aggregate Emerging Markets & China. At what point do investors start to appreciate the benefits from adding international exposure to their portfolios for not only diversification, but also for enhancing portfolio returns?

    YTD, the Nasdaq Composite is up 6.57%, the S&P 500 is up 1.01%, while the Russell 2000 is down .07%. In comparison, YTD, Chinese Large-Cap Equities (FXI) is up 2.36%, and has returned 25.37% on a trailing 12 month basis. Additionally, YTD, MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is up 2.14% coupled with a 27.24% trailing 12-month return. Outside of the Nasdaq's strong performance, which is not a truly diversified investment vehicle since it is comprised of US tech stocks, investors would have fared very well if they had allocated internationally in developing China or broad Emerging Markets. Valuations appear attractively priced for China and EM – with a 12x Fwd 12M P/E ratio for EM & China. Earnings growth is north of 30% for both groups – in comparison to earnings growth being similar for US Indices despite having Fwd 12M P/E's at 17x. The market appears to be over-discounting growth in aggregate EM & China. As a result, going forward investors may want to reconsider adding international exposure to their portfolios.

    Prudent investors may want to consider how to best allocate international investments and Quantamize can help with its quantitative multi-factor framework, providing quantitative models covering Chinese, Mexican and Brazilian equity markets.

    https://www.quantamize.com/adding-international-exposure-diversification-enhanced-returns/

    submitted by /u/QuantalyticsResearch
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    Stocktradings Instagram Page - Hot Stock Picks and Market Analysis (87% Success Rate)

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 03:23 PM PST

    Hey Guys, I have been a trader/private broker for 5 years now. I am new to Reddit but this is a very useful tool for trading. I started a non-profit Instagram page by the name Stocktradings that has been gaining traction for about a year now and was recognized by Robinhood, Home Depot etc. for my posts. So far, I have almost 9,000 followers on the account. I was also recognized by Kumar Arora who is an investor on CNN Money and the financial news company Benzinga. I would love for you guys to follow. I post hot stock picks and give my own analysis on them including a price target with an 87% success rate. I have had overwhelming success based on feedback from my followers. My portfolios are up anywhere between 130%-190% just in the past year with over $450K in capital. I post Instagram stories with my gains and account performance. I am a day trader, swing trader, and long term investor. The main point is to maximize gains. I have attached a screenshot of my account's main page and a sample post I wrote on Nokia, Cisco, Amazon, and ImmunoGen. Shoot me a message on Instagram if you want more information but I would love for you guys to follow and provide me feedback. Thank you!

    https://imgur.com/a/memBN

    submitted by /u/stocktradingsinsta
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    Southwest (LUV) seems to be an undervalued stock right now, thoughts?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:31 AM PST

    Had a low P/E relative to the industry and a great MOS, and now their adding more routes to their travel lines. Interested in what other people think

    submitted by /u/Take5podcasts
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    How do you decide which ETF to buy?

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 02:49 AM PST

    I want to buy an ETF and just hold it for 10 years+ but so far in my research, I cannot seem to see a way to differentiate which ETF are better. For example, IVV vs VTI vs QQQ, how would you know which will perform better in a 10 years period?

    submitted by /u/TimLEarn
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    The Bull Stops Here – 3 Reasons Why the Stock Market has Peaked

    Posted: 05 Mar 2018 10:41 AM PST

    Key Points While many investors are focused on strong economic fundamentals, supply and demand dictate the market, not the economy. 2017 was a historical year, but it has likely sucked up the amount of money available to buy stocks. Current economic conditions mean that more wealth is not likely to enter the stock market. Structural demand is also weakening as the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary conditions.

    A Rough Beginning to 2018

    The recent volatility in markets has brought a lot of rhetoric from professional investors. Most are saying this volatility is healthy, and that strong fundamentals will prevail. However, while economic fundamentals still point to a healthy economy, the stock market still needs cash to increase stock prices. The forces of supply and demand dictate the market, not the economy.

    In 2018, demand for US stocks will be low. High investor sentiment in 2017 likely pulled all of the money from the sidelines, as the market had a historical year. Future economic growth is not likely to bring more cash to the markets, and structural demand for stocks is weakening.

    2017 - Awakening the Animal Spirits

    When Donald Trump won the presidential election, investor sentiment rose fast. He had promised tax reform, healthcare reform, and infrastructure spending on the campaign trail. All three could bolster the economy and the markets. Also, the expectation that he would get things done shot equities higher.

    The election also boosted consumer confidence by awakening the "animal spirits". People believed in the economy again, and consumer spending increased. This set investor expectations higher, and demand for stocks continued to rise.

    As the year went on, economic data showed what all investors were hoping for: accelerating growth, low inflation, and rising consumer confidence followed by higher consumer spending. Plus, all investors kept the possibility of tax cuts in the back of their minds, and when it finally came, it spurred the markets even more.

    With this perfect storm of economic data, everyone who was going to buy stocks, bought them. Expectations in 2017 were so great, and so high, that the market "melted-up" to produce an S&P 500 return of more than 20%, with historically low volatility. This occurred in the eighth year of the bull-run. People were buying stocks because of "the fear of missing out", meaning they were buying stocks because they did not want to miss out on the opportunity to grow their portfolio.

    Economic Conditions Limit Stock Market Demand

    In the beginning of an economic cycle, unemployment usually begins to decline, and that increases the amount of wealth within the system. As wealth grows, more money is saved, and some of that moves into the equity markets, thus raising prices.

    Right now, we are at the later end of the economic cycle, and there will not be an influx of wealth to push stocks higher. The economy is fully employed, and has been for sometime. Market demand for stocks is going to remain low because people have already entered the market with their savings.

    Tightening Monetary Policy

    Since the Great Recession, the markets have had very accommodative monetary policy. At the time, the Federal Reserve's solution to help the economy was to boost investment spending. They did this by lowering interest rates to historically low levels.

    Then, the Fed started to buy bonds in the open market. These purchases provided two tools. First, it kept interest rates low by creating artificial demand for bonds. Second, it added more money into the system, raising the money supply. Both of these actions were designed to raise the amount of investment in the economy, by making money easy and cheap.

    Consequences of Easy Money

    Since the bottom in 2009, the S&P 500 has risen by over 325%. The 10-year treasury fell to its lowest yield ever; in 2016, it reached a low of 1.367%. The unintended consequences of super easy monetary policy was that companies were buying back stock and raising dividends rather than focusing on research and development and other investments for their future. These buybacks continued to raise demand for stocks, and with bonds being so weak, stocks were a better alternative.

    Now, as the US economy is growing stronger, the Fed is working to reverse their easy monetary policy and normalize it. This means interest rates are rising, and their bond purchases are stopping. Money supply is being taken out of the market, and financial conditions are tightening. The structural demand for stocks that was created after the financial crisis is now going away.

    Conclusion

    Demand for stocks is low. Tightening financial conditions mean that demand that was once there, is being taken out. Current economic conditions tell us that the growth in economic activity is not going to add a dramatic amount of wealth into the markets. Finally, extremely high investor sentiment in 2017 means that there isn't much money left on the sidelines to be deployed. These three factors tell me that the stock market has likely reached a peak.

    However, a lack of demand does not mean there is an abundance of supply. Since the fundamentals are so good, investors do not want to pull money out of the market. Also, the promise of repatriated funds going back to investors is likely a strong reason to hold stocks, for now.

    The End of the Beta Trade?

    From here, it is likely to become a stock picker's market. What we will see is that the indices like the S&P 500 will stay flat or range bound. Companies that continue to surprise and perform well will be rewarded with higher prices. While stocks with weak earnings and outlooks will be punished. Cash will be rotated out of the bad performers, and into the good ones until there is finally a recession. The Beta trade is likely over, for now.

    read more posts like this at www.brtechnicals.com/past-blog-posts/!

    submitted by /u/BR-Technicals
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