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    Stock Market - The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away!

    March 27, 2018

    Stock Market - The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away!

    The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away!

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:42 PM PDT

    Why is everyone panicking?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 02:48 PM PDT

    Or am I destined to be a bag holder. I was around in 2008. Haven't got shook yet. Or am I being ignorant?

    submitted by /u/call_the_whambulance
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    Has the Market the past 2 months been "normal"?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:23 PM PDT

    I've just gotten into investing this year, and began Feb 5th. I have never paid much attention to the Market and have been a bit more now. Has these past 2 months been "normal" considering previous years issues? I know the trade wars have affected things as a whole it seems, and the Facebook and other more specific issues happen which can affect those specific stocks/industries. But is this an abnormal 2 month period, or considered "normal" market fluctuation?

    I've been sitting at about -0.30% overall with my current investments as of today at 12:20pm PST, so I'm not too worried about much long term items, but I am definitely curious.

    submitted by /u/meeshkyle
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    Can someone explain to me how dividends work?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:53 PM PDT

    specifically for the following 2 companies

    PER SDR

    for each share I have, every quarter how much will I earn?

    submitted by /u/Tejbird
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    CRSP is an absolute SCREAMING BUY this very second at $44.50, with the retirement of Tyler Hyde being nothing more than a profit taking selloff

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:16 PM PDT

    Thoughts on the GDP report tomorrow?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 07:07 PM PDT

    How do you think the GDP report will affect markets tomorrow? If number is bearish we could see a major tick to the downside. If what is expect there still could be a sell on fact.

    submitted by /u/WinstonWonders
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    r/StockMarket Portfolio Challenge Update 2018-03-27

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 08:00 AM PDT

    For those of you who want to join the game, instructions are here: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/82fdkx/the_rstockmarket_portfolio_challenge/

    It's now been a few weeks since the game started and we've seen a massive spike in volatility! Shorting volatility, a trade that was profitable during the 90s and from 2009, looks to have lost a bit in the market regime.

    Our Top 3 By Absolute Return:

    1. 18.49% u/metrocore
    2. 10.57% u/dotdane
    3. 9.16% u/beyondyou

    Our Top 3 By Sharpe Ratio:

    1. 8.32 u/metrocore
    2. 4.98 u/beyondyou
    3. 4.71 u/Hoosier411

    Generally it's been an impressive set of portfolios (click on a username on the leaderboard to see positions); and YOLO'rs are leading both ends of the leaderboard.

    submitted by /u/WittilyFun
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    I need help with my portfolio

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:15 PM PDT

    So I am fairly new to investing and I'm trying to learn on my own, I'm interested in saving up money little bit here and there whenever I can spare it, to put towards savings for a house. People have told me that investing in companies that pay high dividends may be the best way to go, currently this is what I have. thoughts, comments suggestions?

    SDR- 394 Shares SDT-84 Shares CHKR- 145 Shares

    submitted by /u/Tejbird
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    Sharing Proprietary Fundamental Analysis of Multi-line Industrials (GE, HON, UTX, MMM, ROP, DHR)

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 11:31 AM PDT

    I recently concluded interviews for a Senior Equity Analyst role at a major bank covering Industrials. Had a lot of fun piecing together the attached analysis as part of the interview process and thought I would share in public domain. All work belongs to me and is based upon publicly available sources.

    Overall summary of winners and losers: https://imgur.com/2jPyoup

    Here's the complete deck, about 24 pages https://imgur.com/a/P9kxH

    Key takeaways

    • Multi-line Industrials (MLIs) winners have been disciplined with portfolio decisions, focusing on secular growth tech sectors and have maintained very lean corporate centers that drive financial accountability, especially FCF conversion with OpCos
    • MLI losers have been more diversified with large corporate centers and over-investment in cyclical positions and early stage tech where ROI has been slower than anticipated
    • MLIs are increasingly focused on four major end markets and migrating to tech-centric positions in those end markets... divesting consumer, home, and other areas that are recent targets of competition from low cost suppliers in Asia and elsewhere
    • GE Meltdown Round 2... pre-cursor to a breakup? Feels likley... Long-term degredation of OP% has followed GM%, which is a result of poorly times acquisitions (Alstom, BH) and weak Lighting and Renewables... Aviation and Healthcare if spun out would be more market value than current total GE based on peer P/E ratios... Becomes a buy once accounting concerns put to rest
    • Concern re "who is the next GE" - further investigation... UTX? JCI? Accounting and Op% trends to be looked at
    • Potential wave of M&A in Aerospace, as cash repatriated and in response to UTX/RCI... counter argument is who would buy at likely top of cycle. Safran?
    • Winners: ROP, DHR (not FTV), HRS, PH (note: ROP, HRS already high PE)
    • Losers: ETN, IR, CFX

    Edit: typos

    submitted by /u/FundamentalsInvestor
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    Shittiest of Days

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 04:13 PM PDT

    Entirely my fault. I had multiple shares in amazon, Tesla, MU, and any other tech company that took a big fat L today. I just started trading last week and am already at -7% loss. Should I wait for rebound or just cut my losses and get out? I'm extremely demoralized at the moment. Did I somehow start trading at the worst time possible?

    submitted by /u/heyo431
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    What are you thoughts on GE?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:49 PM PDT

    What do you think of GE stock? Is it time to buy? If not now, when should you buy it?

    submitted by /u/PotatoLover0_o
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    $TTWO is making me bleed, any fundamentals/catalyst behind the massive drops?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 12:49 PM PDT

    Before the large surge down we had I went into $TTWO @ 103. The stock was somewhat picked up yesterday, but Didn't set off my stop sell. And today, holy moly what a massive drop. Im down about $350. I dont really understand why there's so much bears. Are there any fundamentals or catalyst behind it or does it just go down with the market?

    submitted by /u/Peshar
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    Facebook $FB - A short situational post

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 05:39 AM PDT

    Hello!
    I am sure most of you know roughly what has happened to facebook in this latest development in the markets. The data "breach", the drop in their stock from a close to ATH 185 all the way down to 160, a 14% drop in their market cap. There is a lot of misinformation out there, and while I do not say I am right, I have a tendency to trust what numbers tell me.

    Disclaimer: This is my own analysis. Feel free to take this information and make whatever choice you would like. I have no intrest in analyzing the actual events and exact details of this even. If you want that, my analyses are not where you want to be. I analyze numbers, fundamentals and management actions, which is what matters in my eyes long term. An example of this is that some people believe that Facebook as a business contain risk of social media trends. Where their mistake is in my eyes is that this risk in intangible for them. Practically useless. I translate this risk into numbers by balancing MAU, DAU, average revenue per user, indefinite maturity rate and discount rate, allowing me to take the risk into actual calculations.

    Financials
    I used my model for Facebook and built multiple versions, trying to pinpoint where they could be going in the future, and what the general market expectation is. For Facebook because I believe that the platform contains a base trend risk, I evaluate their financials with a maturity rate of -3%, and a discount rate of 8%.

    It is fairly realistic to assume that as Facebook matures additionally as a company, we will see minor drops in margins. It is really fantastic how facebook have maintained their current margins for this long while not adding on any debt (currently $0 debt & $41 Billion net cash). Therefore it is very probable we will see their gross margin and operating margin drop, to 82% (from 87%) and 50% down by 2% per year until they reacg around 35%, which is realistic compared to other internet platforms.

    Now using my standard evaluation of growth companies, Facebook is unrealistically undervalued (183% upside). This evaluation comes from assuming the margin shrinkage mentioned above, as well as a annual growth reduction by 5-2% per year (steep to begin with). Facebooks exceptional margins makes any growth profitable to the point of insanity. This evaluation gives facebook 54% upside at their all time high.

    The market
    Right now, the market puts facebook at $160 per share, a market cap of $465 Billion. To achive their evalution, with the slightly-grim assumption of -3% maturity and 8% discount, we need a steep lowering of growth as well as a fall of their margins. We can easily achive this evaluation by expecting a margin drop of net margin from the current 40$ to 12% over 15 years. On top of this, we need to have their revenue growth basically collapse. The revenue would have to act similary to this drop of 47% y/y in 2017, 33% in 2018, 25% in 2021 all the way down to the loss of growth in 2026, maturing from there (@-3% net margin). These assumption puts the net present value at the current $160 per share.

    This picture is very, very grim.

    My opinion

    The market assumes Facebook to start shrinking in 12 years, after losing growth rapidly, something that haven't happen since it took off. I see the media today capitalizing on the hate, portraying that the public is deleting Facebook and that the platform will die similar to Myspace. This to me is an obvious media push. The loss of growth that the cost would require is absurd. Even in previous cases where Facebook and privacy have been in headlines, their monthly active users grew. Growth will slow down as they are unable to add more users, but the company is worth over 13000 times that what myspce was at when it started declning. This business is a global superpower, and could today with what is in their warchest acquire myspace as sold over a thousand times. Anyone who compares the two are delusional.

    Facebook is today in my opinion worth, at a conservative view, $200 usd per share. They are year over year adding 23% monthly active users in Asia, and is successfully profiting from them. They are still growing in the western world, with a very understandable slowdown in growth. The company today prints money to absurdly low costs. It is truly impressive compared to other companies. They are priced for growth, and the risk comes in from not growing. However, the abrupt drop in growth that the current price demands is unrealistic. If facebook would maintain their growth trend throughout 2018, that will be enough to show that the ridiculous loss of growth that the market seems to irrationally expect is just that. Ridiculous.

    Feel free to ask questions and discuss!

    /u/lykosen11

    submitted by /u/lykosen11
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    What is the endgame for the StockMarket?

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 07:49 AM PDT

    Eventually all companies will peak. Even Amazon in the future will grow until it cannot grow any longer. At which point they still have to make share holders happy, to do this the answer always seems to be layoffs or shutting down plants to help squeeze out an extra 2% growth in profits.

    Not everyone will grow as large and as worldwide as Amazon so for smaller companies the peak growth can be reached rather quick in some cases and see the shutdowns, sells, layoffs happen sooner. Now I can see how shareholders are useful and important to help a company grow but once the company has grown to its fullest extent then I can also see how shareholders can become a problem. It gets to a point where companies value shareholders over their own product or employees when they get far enough into the game.

    So my question is what is the endgame? Just a endless repeating cycle of companies growing only to implode later? Or can we come up with slightly different system where companies are not as depended on shareholders as they are today?

    submitted by /u/SmokinMan0123
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    Another huge U.S. market drop due to Trump's insane tariff wars.

    Posted: 27 Mar 2018 01:24 PM PDT

    The market again demonstrates that when the country has an idiot as its President, no investment is safe.

    submitted by /u/Warren4Prez
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