What happened today in the US Equities markets? Investing |
- What happened today in the US Equities markets?
- Semiconductors, the next big Tech?
- If you were to buy & hold only 1-3 ETFs till retirement, what would it/they be?
- Should Investors Worry About Geopolitical Events?
- Is there value in increasing DCA contributions during times of market downturn?
- Activision and Microsoft merger - is Call of Duty a monopoly maker vs Sony?
- Is investing in the stock market on average profitable?
| What happened today in the US Equities markets? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 01:34 PM PST Futures were lightly positive. Then bloodbath: DOW -1000pts, NASDAQ -4.9%, etc. Only indexes that were positive were China, Taiwan, and Nikkei. The VIX was at 30%+. Europe's STOXX 600 saw it finally inheriting the headwinds from US -> China -(to finally)-> Europe. Now with the mkt closed we see DOW, SPX, NASDAQ all positive. The VIX is only 3%+. Curiously, the massive comeback across US Equities started at 12:00. Had a pull-back at 13:45, and 14:30 the rally was back on to close positive. So what happened? I mean, even Chanos is long in this market. "The S&P 500 has recovered from an intraday loss of more than 3.98% only three times (since HLC data began in 1977): Jan 24, 2022 (today) Oct 16, 2008 = down -4.63% and closed up 4.25% Oct 23, 2008 = down -4.28% and closed up 1.26%
I am an institutional investor and I am somewhat baffled. I mean, I thought the market was already irrational (and getting rational), but wow. I am lost for words. EDIT: Corrected Bianco Research date (Jan 24, 2024 -> Jan 24, 2022). EDIT 2: I can't believe I have to explain this. This is "bar-talk" to me. Instead of sports, I wanna comment on today's market session in a casual fashion. This is absolutely not research (jesus hell no). The fact I have to even state this is baffling too [link] [comments] |
| Semiconductors, the next big Tech? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 08:55 PM PST Are semiconductor companies going to be the next version of big tech or big oil? I feel like in a lot of ways they are some kind of hybrid version of commodities and technology, especially when it comes to stuff like memory and hard drives. However with the extreme specialization resulting in monopolies/duopolies like INTC/AMD, AMD/NVDA, AMAT/LRCX, QUAL/Samsung, MU/Samsung (RAM), TSMC/NXPI, etc., it seems like they are starting to setup to be more like big tech companies where they have carved out a huge portion or all of the market share and are setup to dominate for decades. Then add in the fact that computers and chips are being put in everything from cars to toasters, it seems like these Big Semis are going to perform quite well for the foreseeable future with little competition like Verizon and AT&T a decade or two ago. What am I missing? Semis have been very cyclical in the past, but it seem like they are becoming more of a necessity to building pretty much everything that even a big downturn in the economy wont have nearly the same impact it has had in the past. I feel like l software is much more easily to disrupt compared to designing and fabricating high-end semiconductors, especially the fabrication and component. [link] [comments] |
| If you were to buy & hold only 1-3 ETFs till retirement, what would it/they be? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 02:01 PM PST There's so many options for general indexing. SPY vs QQQ vs VOO, SWTSX vs VTI vs IWV, SPDW vs VT, etc etc. I've always been partial to SPY & QQQ, but I've noticed a lot of people on this sub prefer Vanguard ETFs. I might also mention that I myself hold many different stock & ETFs, I'd just like to know what you consider to be the staples. If you were to hold onto just 1, or ≤3 ETFs, until retirement... What would it/they be? And, why do you choose that option over other similar options? [link] [comments] |
| Should Investors Worry About Geopolitical Events? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 11:35 AM PST Over the weekend and early this morning we heard more news of building tension in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is meant to shed light on past geopolitical events and their affect on markets. The human tragedy already seen as a result the conflict is apparent, with over 15,000 deaths among Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists that have been fighting since 2015 (according to Reuters). Russia has built a troop count of over 100,000 at the border and NATO and its allies have begun shipping troops, weapons, and ammunition to the region. US an European leaders continue to assess their options after meetings with Kremlin leaders have went largely nowhere. Economic sanctions are likely should Russia continue on their path. Ukraine, a former Soviet bloc country, is on a path to joining NATO which Putin and Russia vehemently oppose. Russia still views Ukraine as an extension of Russia and wishes to keep Ukraine under their wing to avoid further NATO "intrusion" so close to their land. The story is gaining more momentum in mainstream news, and effects have found their way to the jittery stock market, but with the recent sell-off, the story has remained somewhat on the backburner in financial circles. As tensions escalate, I thought it would be useful to put together a few data points on how markets have reacted to past geopolitical events. State Street examined 71 geopolitical events from 1986-2018. The full study is here. A few takeaways include: - The largest effects seen were in currency and equity markets. - Equity markets typically respond quickly in a strong negative/positive fashion and remain depressed/elevated for about 1-2 months. As seen in the chart, the initial reaction is quite dramatic, but markets tend to rationalize as more clarity comes - Volatility and risk tend to spike right away as well, following both positive and negative events, only to recede slightly a month after the event BlackRock also publishes a "Geopolitical Risk Indicator" found here. The indicator is aimed to measure not the potential for geopolitical conflict, but the market's attention to geopolitical risks. BlackRock's indicator has been negative for the last year, indicating investors have not been paying much attention to geopolitical risks since Biden took office, and perhaps it's too little attention. The data here is from two companies and is not all-encompassing, but it suggests riding out geopolitical risks may be better for long-term performance if you can withstand the short-term volatility that comes with it. The media will likely create significant panic if this situation continues to escalate, and rightfully so from a humanitarian perspective, but keeping your focus long-term may be beneficial for your portfolio. TL;DR: Unless Russia and the US move to an all-out war, the Ukrainian conflict is likely to have little long-term effect on global equity markets. [link] [comments] |
| Is there value in increasing DCA contributions during times of market downturn? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 12:05 PM PST I currently have my portfolio set up for automatic weekly contributions into an S&P500 mutual fund due to the extensive research out there around not trying to beat the market. Although with this recent downturn I've been considering the value of temporarily increasing my automated contributions during times of market downturn. I have a decently sized miscellaneous category in my budget I often use for excess spending / extra fun money. My idea is that I'd pull money from this excess spending category during times of market downturn to increase my automatic contributions while the market is in correction territory. After doing some searching I haven't been able to find any real mention of this strategy so I figured that I'd ask the community here what they thought of this idea. Ideally, I would not always contribute these extra amounts as it is nice to have some extra money for things I don't really need although I'd like to hear other people's opinions about this and if they are aware of any existing research. TLDR: Should I supplement my normal DCA investments during times of market downturn? [link] [comments] |
| Activision and Microsoft merger - is Call of Duty a monopoly maker vs Sony? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 11:28 AM PST I apologize if this has already been brought up in discussion. I am aware that traditionally monopolies when it comes to mergers and getting denied FTC regulation permission are usually lateral acquisitions of similarly sized companies looking to gain a huge market share against competitors, however Microsoft is a far, far larger company than Activision. I've read that with a vertical acquisition, the deal is unlikely to be seen as a monopoly. However, could Microsoft in part be buying Activision to take ownership of a huge console franchise, Call of Duty to curb or capitalize on Playstation sales? Would Microsoft then make Call of Duty an XBOX exclusive and could this then be considered a monopoly considering how much a cash cow and income base COD is? I don't mean to have a conversation on the quality of the COD games, that's a different discussion, but the fact remains, whether they are quality or not, people buy COD games and they generate huge revenue. Any thoughts? Could that impact at all the decision, or is this as good as a done deal in your mind? There's part of me that's sad that I won't be owning my Activision stock anymore as I like to buy and hold. [link] [comments] |
| Is investing in the stock market on average profitable? Posted: 24 Jan 2022 10:46 PM PST Im 16 and wanting to get into investing but im not sure how/where the money comes from. Do people who invest lose or make money on average . Im gonna write more stuff so that this post would be allowed. My plan would be to put couple hundred into investments since that is an that i would mind losing that much. Also id like to buy a little bit of bitcoin since it seems like a pretty safe cypto and also seems to have gone down recently. . [link] [comments] |
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