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    Friday, April 2, 2021

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - April 02, 2021 Investing

    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - April 02, 2021 Investing


    Daily General Discussion and spitballin thread - April 02, 2021

    Posted:

    Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

    This thread is for:

    • General questions
    • Your personal commentary on markets
    • Opinion gathering on a given stock
    • Non advice beginner questions

    Keep in mind that this subreddit, and this thread, is not an appropriate venue for questions that should be directed towards your broker's customer support or google.

    If you would like to ask a question about your personal situation or if you are asking for advice please keep these posts in the daily advice thread as that thread is more well suited for those questions.

    Any posts that should be comments in this thread will likely be removed.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.

    Posted:

    If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

    • How old are you? What country do you live in?
    • Are you employed/making income? How much?
    • What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
    • What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
    • What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
    • What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
    • Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
    • And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

    Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

    Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    ”Tether's claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie," - NYAG

    Posted:

    NYAG statements

    New York Attorney General Letitia James' office says it found that Tether sometimes held no reserves to back its cryptocurrency's dollar peg. It said that, from mid-2017, the company had no access to banking and misled clients about liquidity issues.

    In a 2019 filing, the attorney general's office said that Bitfinex handed $850 million to a Panama entity called Crypto Capital without disclosing it to investors. Executives at Bitfinex and Tether then allegedly engaged in a series of transactions that opened up Tether's cash reserves to Bitfinex.

    "Bitfinex and Tether recklessly and unlawfully covered-up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines," James said in a statement Tuesday.

    "Tether's claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie," she added.

    "These companies obscured the true risk investors faced and were operated by unlicensed and unregulated individuals and entities dealing in the darkest corners of the financial system."

    What is tether?

    Tether) is a 1 to 1 dollar peg cryptocurrency. It accounts for 60-80% of all trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges.

    What is the significance of tether?

    Please read the price manipulation section on it's wiki) page. In a nut shell, tether has been strategically printed (backed by nothing) and used to manipulate the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency market. There is a high correlation between how much tether is printed and Bitcoin's price.

    https://assets-bwbx-io.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/irp9oaPu51XM/v0/-1x-1.png

    What happens now?

    This has long been one the cryptocurrency's market biggest fears. That the price increases were mostly due to artificial demand. As to what happens next, I'm not sure, and no one really knows. I can speculate that Powell and Yellen may use this firepower to enact stricter legislation on the cryptocurrency market. Maybe Tether needs to be banned altogether. But if tether is banned what will happen to the artificially inflated Bitcoin/cryptocurrency market?

    Tether recently released a statement in an attempt to show that all its stablecoins are fully backed. However, it fails to disclose what it's holdings are. "For all we know, they could have $25 in their bank account and the rest could be in Bitcoin."

    Tether will soon face a quarterly report, filed with the AG, may shed more light on how exactly Tether's money is invested.

    What are your thoughts on tether and cryptocurrency after this news was released?

    submitted by /u/FractalsSourceCode
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    Investing w/ Climate Change on the Horizon

    Posted:

    This has honestly bothered me for a while now. I am 26 years old (in the US) with a decent-ish government job and I am slamming money away into a 457(b) program and all that, but I can't help but feel that it might end up being pointless. I hope to retire around 55y/o, but I could envision the market getting wrecked by that time due to climate disasters.

    I know the market historically averages ~7% per year, but the odds of ideal market conditions continuing to 2050 just seem so low. Does anyone else feel pessimistic about the financial market leading into the future? It just keeps getting harder and harder for me to justify investing rather than leading a better life now while the opportunity is still there...

    submitted by /u/RAMB0NER
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    BofA Global Research - Bitcoin's Dirty Little Secrets

    Posted:

    Source

    Key takeaways

    • Data suggests that institutional announcements, inflows into GBTC, and miner reward cuts help drive Bitcoin prices
    • The main argument for Bitcoin is not diversification, stable returns, or inflation protection, but sheer price appreciation
    • Bitcoin CO2 emissions are the same as Greece's and rise in line with prices. Our ESG reading is low on E, and mixed on S & G

    Bitcoin supply is artificially scarce, demand drives prices

    Just like in other commodities, supply and demand drive Bitcoin prices. But there are twists. Bitcoin output is capped at 21mn coins and supply growth halves every 4 years. It is designed to become increasingly constrained. So demand swings are key to price moves. Indeed, we show major institutional announcements and miner reward cuts have been followed by upward Bitcoin moves. Similarly, flows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) appear to lead weekly Bitcoin returns. A while ago, we argued a surge in trading liquidity was a key feature of the asset. Yet Bitcoin remains limited by its complex settlement process (crypto mining), and can just handle 14k transactions per hour relative to Visa's stated 236mn.

    No good reason to own BTC unless you see prices going up

    Bitcoin has also become correlated to risk assets, it is not tied to inflation, and remains exceptionally volatile, making it impractical as a store of wealth or payments mechanism. As such, the main portfolio argument for holding Bitcoin is not diversification, stable returns, or inflation protection, but rather sheer price appreciation, a factor that depends on Bitcoin demand outpacing supply. Unlike other asset classes, our work shows liquidity bursts measured by the Amihud ratio caused positive Bitcoin returns. Average 10y Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin is about 1.3 despite stellar returns, compared to 1 for NDX. Plus Bitcoin returns are sensitive to increased dollar demand. A net inflow into Bitcoin of $93mn may result in a 1% price rise, while the analogue for gold is more than 20 times higher.

    Our Bitcoin ESG read: low on E, mixed on S and G

    Few ESG providers factor Bitcoin exposure into ESG ratings. But its Environmental score is poor: the network emits today about 60mn tons of CO2, the same as Greece. Plus a $1bn fresh inflow into Bitcoin may cause CO2 to rise by the equivalent of 1.2mn ICE cars. As hash power today is mostly in coal-fired Xinjiang, a link between prices, energy demand & CO2 means Bitcoin is tied to Chinese coal. Should prices rise to $1mn, Bitcoin may turn into the world's 5th largest emitter, surpassing Japan. On Social &Governance issues, democratization of money and anonymity of ownership can be positive, as it is helpful in territories with corrupt financial systems and lowers costs by eliminating intermediaries. But negatives outweigh. Anonymity aids nefarious activities. Reprisk, an ESG tracker, found 181 companies faced risks linked to Bitcoin around money laundering, corruption, bribery, fraud, and breaches of data privacy.

    CBDCs are kryptonite for crypto, but DeFi is intriguing

    A number of central banks (notably, the ECB) are talking about launching retail digital currencies that may use mainstream technology and operate on mainstream payment rails. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are aimed at protecting CBs against private sector stablecoins (such as Diem), as CBs view Bitcoin et al as (spec) assets, not currencies. Also, the growth of decentralized finance ("DeFi") shows the strength of Ethereum; its computational ability is vital to DeFi applications. Yet Ethereum has similarESG issues as Bitcoin, even if it may have better tools to tackle them. DeFi is interesting, but small and faces challenges in going mainstream. We think it hasn't a compelling lending proposition at present, and its diversification makes it challenging for the mass market.

    submitted by /u/AwesomeMathUse
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    ChargePoint (CHPT) Due Diligence

    Posted:

    I am not a financial advisor. I just like the stock.

    What is CharePoint (CHPT)?

    ChargePoint Holdings is an electric vehicle infrastructure company based in Campbell, California. ChargePoint operates the largest online network of independently owned EV charging stations operating in 14 countries and makes the technology used in it

    Financial Analysis:

    Strong Buy: 40% | Buy: 40% |Hold: 20%

    Low: $28.00 | Median: $39.20 | $46.00

    Free Float: 7.68B | Free Float: 151.22M | 52 Week High: $49.48

    Why I Like the Stock
    1. CHPT is the largest provider of EV charging stations in the World with more than 100,000 charging ports . Biden's infrastructure plan calls for 500,000 charging station national wide with a $174B B in the EV market.

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/biden-infrastructure-plan-ev-rebates-charging-stations/

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678584-chargepoint-quantumscape-lead-big-gains-in-ev-sector-on-green-tidal-wave-hopes

    1. CHPT owns nearly 75% of the EV Charging market share

    2. CHPT has Strategic Partnerships with MOST major Car Manufacturers

    3. CHPT has hundreds of customers including:

    - Disney

    - Google

    - Facebook

    - Apple

    - Microsoft

    - Netflix

    - Target

    - Whole Foods (Amazon)

    - Johnson & Johnson

    - Lyft

    - FedEx

    - eBay

    - GM

    - MasterCard

    - Salesforce

    - Uber

    - McDonald's

    - Chevron

    - Hundreds More

    1. CHPT is partnered with over 4,000 businesses and organizations

    2. Highly Rated Mobile App

    3. Has over 133,000 public charging points across North America and Europe

    4. Has positive Cash flow of $615 Million

    5. Can charge ANY type of electric vehicle

    6. The Chargepoint app is integrated into Apple CarPlay & Android Auto. It's also integrated into the navigation systems of BMW, Mercedes, Fiat, Nissan, SiriusXM, & TomTom

    TL;DR - Biden's infrastructure calls for 500,000 charging station nation wide with $174B dedicated to the EV market. CHPT is the leading industry and has many major partners. I like the stock. I don't know what I am talking about.

    submitted by /u/barjay8
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    Canadian Bitcoin ETFs available on Fidelity by enabling International Trading

    Posted:

    You can currently access the Canadian Bitcoin ETFs through Fidelity (no april fools):

    You first need to enable your accounts for International Trading. You can turn it on here or call them.

    The three ETF symbols are: "BTCC_U:CA", "EBIT_U:CA" and "BTCX_U:CA".

    For IRA accounts, you can purchase but you can't do online. Need to call a broker and do over the phone (not big deal).

    You can't put in stop orders. Commission looks like is $7.95 no matter size but don't quote me on that.

    BTCC annual expense fee is 1%, EBIT is .75% and BTCX is .4%. AUM is 1 Bil for BTCC, 75mil for EBIT and 51mil for BTCX.

    GBTC for comparison has a 2% fee and is not an ETF.

    Share any other brokerages that work in the comments.

    submitted by /u/megacurl
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    Micron Soars On Chip Shortage "Perfect Storm"

    Posted:

    In a time when pervasive chip and semiconductor shortages are snarling supply chains across the globe, it is hardly a surprise that chip giant Micron shares surged more than 5% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker gave a bullish sales and earnings forecast, with analysts positive on pricing trends for dynamic random access memory (DRAM), while highlighting improving demand from enterprise customers.

    Shares in chip stocks peers also climbed in premarket trading, with Applied Materials up 2.6%, Nvidia gaining 1.5%, and Intel +1.2%. Separately, the WSJ reported that Micron and Western Digital are each exploring a potential deal for Japan's Kioxia.

    Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a snapshot of what analysts said about Micron's stellar results:

    RBC Capital Markets (outperform, raises PT to $120 from $110)

    Micron's results are "solid across the board" and news of potential consolidation of NAND is an added bonus While revenue midpoint guidance was on top of RBC's expectations for the May quarter, profits are expanding at a faster rate Micron continues to see "robust" demand from hyperscale companies, and enterprise demand looks to be improving 

    Cowen (outperform, raises PT to $105 from $100)

    Says it is "hard to argue this was anything but a watershed quarter," noting better results, better guidance and immediate accretion from halting XPoint Prudent capacity planning is now paying off, and is evident from improved pricing and margins 

    Evercore (outperform, PT $135)

    Severe shortages and disciplined capex is driving a "perfect storm" Says the DRAM market is in "severe" shortage, pricing is increasing rapidly, and Micron's management expects further tightening through 2021 Reflecting on current spending levels on DRAM capex, it's "hard to see issues head," especially considering lean inventories at Micron's customers as well as equipment slots that are largely full until 1H22 

    Piper Sandler (neutral, PT $90)

    Micron saw strength across the board, and it appears demand has outpaced supply in the DRAM market, driving improving pricing trends Notes data center, 5G handsets, automotive demand all remaining strong, with enterprise demand improving Believes strength is likely to persist through much of calendar 2021 before potentially subsiding to more normal trends in calendar 2022 
    submitted by /u/pacosteles
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    ECB Balance Sheet increased by over €300 Billion in one Week

    Posted:

    ECB Balance Sheet as of 19th of March

    ECB Balance Sheet as of 26th of March.

    Noticed this unusual increase in the size of the ECB balance sheet. It seems to be related to longer term refinancing operations to euro area credit institutions.

    Does anyone know any more details as to what is going on here. So far I couldn't find any additional info on this, but it certainly doesn't seem like business as usual. I'd like to know if there is a perfectly good explanation for this, or if this is perhaps a sign of something bigger to come.

    submitted by /u/Leetle_Monkey
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    Investment in developing countries

    Posted:

    First of all, let me just say that I am 21, I have put some money in stocks but really more like pocket change. This question would be more about learning than to really inform myself for future investments!

    I have been seeing, for the past few months, a lot of news regarding the Turkish lira and how it lost so much value and how Turkey's economy is in shambles, etc. Not only that but Erdogan doesn't make things easier and might very well take the country to total economic collapse.

    My question is if it would be reasonable to invest in Turkey. Not necessarily in stocks, since as I said Turkey might face a huge crisis in the near future. I was thinking more in terms of real estate. For example, Istanbul is one of the most beautiful cities in the world, it has and will always have a certain appeal to a lot of people that makes it valuable whatever happens (well, excluding the city itself being destroyed, but kind of unrealistic). So, for a person living in the eurozone like myself, would an investment in real estate in, say, Istanbul, be a good decision? As far as I see it, because the lira devalued so much, it would be much cheaper for someone holding other currencies.

    Thanks for the help

    submitted by /u/ress99pt
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