Stocks - r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Feb 01, 2021 |
- r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Feb 01, 2021
- It's fucking awful seeing the "Silver" misinformation campaign everywhere I look
- Over 5 million shares of GME Failed to deliver, what can this mean?
- FOR EVERYONE NEW TO INVESTING: A COMPREHENSIVE BREAKDOWN OF TRADING AND MANIPULATION STRATEGIES!
- Serious question, did the GME squeeze already happen?
- Now is a good time to baseline your resources for news on stocks/investments
- Am I just dumb, or could hedge-funds just buy the dip after they slosh funds in and out of $GME for months?
- I bought GME at the dip for 250 today. Do you think the squeeze has already happened or the best is yet to come?
- I don’t have GME, but I’ve seen what people are dropping into it right now.
- Why is noone talking about a possible market crash?
- Sold my gme shares
- Ford's partnership with Google ✅
- YSK - u/DeepFuckingValue has been LOCKING IN PROFIT and trimming his position over the LAST WEEK and is probably playing w/ the house's $
- GME Shorts Covering? Reports from S3 Partners, Ortex, and IHS Markit Ltd. all reporting dramatic reduction in SI%. Can this be right?
- Vanguard: Order cant be accepted because it would exceed available funds
- What happened to GME Today and Is It Over?
- 5M GME shares failed to deliver, no repercussion?
- #GME $GME When will the Squeeze by Sqouze? Detailed Analysis
- Nokia gets upgrade from Barron’s
- With all this crazy GME stuff floating around can i have some facts cleared up
- Is it even worth trying to invest in anything that's not a meme right now?
- This sub has gained 600k subscribers since January 1st.....
- I’ve come here for real conversation.
- Starbucks has the benefit of being able to operate as an unregulated bank?
- Disney Earning Prediction
- Isn’t the little guy still being screwed?
| r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Feb 01, 2021 Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:00 AM PST These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts. Some helpful links:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned. Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky.. See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| It's fucking awful seeing the "Silver" misinformation campaign everywhere I look Posted: 01 Feb 2021 05:32 AM PST ⚠️⚠️⚠️ DON'T BUY SILVER, IT'S A TRAP⚠️⚠️⚠️ They're talking on CNBC as if people on Reddit are actually squeezing silver. It's fucking absurd, they're practically encouraging it. They're like, "Wow, these redditors are squeezing silver, how cool" actually fucking encouraging it. Literally scum Edit: Should have mentioned, it's literally fucking impossible to squeeze silver. It's not shorted at all. Hedge funds own tons of it. Buying silver will make you likely lose money and absolutely give it to the hedge funds. By Silver, I mean $SLV, I know nothing about phisical silver. For anybody confused Edit 2: If you bought $SLV months or years ago and made a profit, that's fantastic. This post is just saying that you should not buy silver right now. This isn't financial advice, I am mentally challenged [link] [comments]  |
| Over 5 million shares of GME Failed to deliver, what can this mean? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 11:16 AM PST According to SEC data over 5 million shares of GME failed to deliver. I looked through the data myself and anyone else can double check me. What does this mean? Is there an overselling of GME stock, naked shorts? Just looking for some possible answers, also almost all the incidences of failures were over half a million in shares not delivered. Edit: it is 600k not 5 million misread the data still seems high [link] [comments]  |
| FOR EVERYONE NEW TO INVESTING: A COMPREHENSIVE BREAKDOWN OF TRADING AND MANIPULATION STRATEGIES! Posted: 01 Feb 2021 10:15 AM PST Current Conditions of the Market: Let me be clear: this is not the typical conditions of the market where stocks fluctuate double and triple digit percentages per day. There's a place for that - the casino. In recent weeks, herds of new traders are pouring into the trading scene hoping to get a piece of the volatile market that has turned the rags to riches, or the other way around. The stock market as a whole, under normal conditions, moves gradually in both directions, guided by trends, innovation, speculation, earnings report, and financial changes. What we are in right now is a hysteria-filled environment that is risky for both veteran traders and novices. Any uninformed, reckless decision can produce different results - by chance. Be wise and do not let chance underlie your success or bankruptcy stories. Please do your research first before investing into anything and whatever you do, do not make the mistake of over-extending yourself with margin (brokerage-provided capital) that you cannot repay should things go south. People have and continue to make this fundamental mistake that will ruin them financially for years. Stock investments should be about long-term growth, stability, and supplemental to your income. Investments should give you access to the opportunity of financial freedom, but should not be your primary source for income. Do not listen to stock gurus and paid-only discord groups - they don't make money from stocks, they make money from you. Lastly, this atypical market condition is the perfect storm for spontaneous "pump and dumps" where stocks become inflated, and based on fool's theory or musical chairs (whichever you prefer), the last one that gets out gets burned. Be smart, be patient, do the research. Basic Stock Jargons & Short/Long Positions: Long - you're buying and holding a stock with the intention for it to increase in value. Short - you're borrowing shares from a lender (brokerage, investment firm, individual investors), selling it to someone, and hoping to buy it back at a lower price. Your profit is the difference in the sell and buy back price. I'll provide a real world example because this concept it a bit more complex:
Market Manipulation: Market manipulation is not new to the scene. Investors have long known of the existence of stock market manipulation tactics, and every day, we may observe some levels of manipulation in specific stocks, specific categories or industries of stocks, or the entire market. Market manipulation is defined as any actions performed with the intention of moving a certain stock price in favor of the manipulator. In this case, these are the wealthy "whales" or hedge funds, both of which have enormous capital capable of shifting stock prices at alarming speeds. Keep in mind, not all hedge funds do this and not all hedge funds are "shorts". Some are "neutral" and act as lenders to make money, some are "growth-based" and invest just like everyday traders with the intention of raising share prices, and others are "short" which are probably perceived to be the sadistic groups of the bunch. Below, I will be discussing how manipulation occurs and on different scales. Manipulation Tactics on a Spectrum: Market manipulation can happen in certain stock, sectors, or the entire market. There are probably far more types of manipulative tactics than we know, but I will describe the most basic types and the strategies behind it. Scenario 1: Let's say a hedge fund just opened a short position on stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. Hedge funds are not too excited about this increased share value, so they can "hedge" or protect themselves, by selling put options. When they sell puts, they are anticipating that the stock will continue to surge, which causes the puts to become worthless at expiration, but on the contrary, they will be collecting the "premium" or money paid upfront by traders that bought the put. At the same time, this hedge fund will slowly "cover", or buy shares of Stock X, so that the increased value of the shares will offset the short position which is losing money. The manipulation here is by using the sheer amount of capital in hand to bolster the stock, both creating favorable conditions for the puts that they sold and the share that they purchased as cover. If they want to add another level of manipulation to this, they can also purchase call options, which will result in profit if the stock price goes up. In this scenario, hedge funds make money at the expense of put option buyers and other shorts that do not have manipulative power or capital to recreate this same strategy. Scenario 2: Let's say a hedge fund just opened a short position on Stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. This hedge fund does not want to risk extra capital to cover their short position (by buying shares, selling put options, or buying call options), so they try a different route. Keep in mind that hedge funds are typically heavily invested in many stocks and assets, meaning they have a lot of power in deciding the direction of many stocks that have potential to instill widespread fear across the entire market if it drops. Take for example, if Apple and Google began to hurl downwards, this can create panic in the market where everyday traders might sell their shares at a loss. This in turn might ripple through the market as other investors in other stocks are predicting a downward trajectory across the market since these big name stocks are losing value so rapidly. Conveniently enough, hedge funds own a lot of these big name "FANG" stocks. If I am a moderately sadistic hedge fund, I can sell off a large holding of shares (in the scale of multi millions or billions) that are in the same sector as Stock X, which would incite fear across the sector, creating panic sell offs. The price will drop sharply across the board, including Stock X, and the short position will produce big profits. Because this hedge fund sold off a large chunk of their shares at a good price, they can now cover their short position (essentially getting rid of it), and then buy up these same stocks that were let go earlier, only this time at a much cheaper price. The hedge fund has now made money not only on the short position, but now they got into the stock at a cheap price in which they can explore other manipulative tactics to bolster the price again. This can be done by encouraging analyst upgrades, publicizing "newly" purchased positions without disclosing the fact that they previously owned it, etc. Scenario 3: This one involves technology: algorithm trading (commonly referred to as algo trading). This one is a really intricately designed manipulative tactic that investors really have no way of getting around. Algorithm trading is the process of using high-speed super-computers and a team of traders to constantly monitor market activity and trade when opportunities arise. In this case, the hedge funds do not have to do any direct manipulation of the market, which makes this 100% legal. How this works is by taking advantage of how trading works and the time it takes for a trade to be made. For you general investors, we have mobile apps and web-based trading platforms to trade. When we like a stock, we have to go through the motion of inputting the stock ticker symbol, the amount of shares, the price we are willing to pay, hit submit, and confirm the trade. For hedge funds using algorithm trading, all this is done autonomously, which makes submission of an order several magnitudes quicker. When an order is submitted, it goes through a brokerage (Fidelity, Webull, ETrade, TDA, RH, etc.) and the data is rerouted to a clearing house (intermediate party that verifies and processes the trade). Clearing houses are responsible for making sure your orders are filled, but they take it on a first come first serve basis. So if a stock is moving quickly, hedge funds have a serious edge in getting in cheaper and faster as well as getting out higher and faster. Algorithm trading is integratable as part of the buying and selling strategies mentioned in the two previous scenarios, which is why they can almost guarantee profit. Algorithm trading also uses a lot of data in their backbone to determine the trades that have a high chance of profitability, and it acts on various factors such as volatility, volume, interest activity, news, etc. In some cases, these algorithms can be set to do some extremely sadistic things. I'll start by talking about "market orders" vs "limit orders". Before you make a trade on your brokerage, you will notice an option that says "market order" or "limit order". Market orders are an agreement that you will purchase the stock or option contract at the best price in the market in the momentary space in time. There is of course a huge risk to that because in that short moment in time, there may not be anyone selling at a good price, and instead, some people might set sell limits at ridiculous prices. For example, some people set a sell limit at $1000 for GME. If you did a market order, and you get really unlucky, you might end up snagging a share for $1000 each, when the actual share value might be $300. However, when you set a "limit order", you are agreeing to buy a share at a maximum price that you designated. In the event that a hedge fund siphons a ton of shares of a company, the algorithm can be set to sell these shares at a ridiculous sell limit. Remember, when they buy or sell, it's processed significantly faster at the clearing houses, so if you're that one unlucky trader that went for a market order on a stock, you might end up purchasing it at a huge premium set by the hedge funds themselves. Moral of the story: DO NOT PURCHASE AS MARKET ORDER - ALWAYS PURCHASE AT LIMIT ORDER. [link] [comments]  |
| Serious question, did the GME squeeze already happen? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 10:39 AM PST https://i.imgur.com/6BGahUN.jpg Been supporting the WSB fight against the Hedge Funds since I found out about it around a week ago. Then I found this information a few hours ago, and it has me worried for the people indefinitely holding, with the expectation of a squeeze coming soon. I'm new to the stock market but have learned a bit in the last week. Am I reading this wrong, or have the percentage of shorted shares dropped to 49.21%? If the squeeze already happened last friday, how is lying about it or hiding this information to keep people buying/holding GME stock, to increase personal profits, ANY different then the bullshit that Hedge Funds do? That is active manipulation and deception for personal gain, not an altruistic attempt to 'take down Goliath', which is why many people (myself included) supported/support the GME/AMC fight. Even ASKING for people to explain this information to me has resulted in mass downvotes, ZERO direct responses explaining why I am wrong, and a post I made about it on WSB, was deleted within 30 seconds by mods. No explanation was provided for the quick deletion, and after asking why it was deleted, I was ignored. (edit - AND Shadowbanned, as I recently just noticed.) Is this a "David vs. Goliath" type of fight, or essentially a Ponzi scheme for people who invested early and/or with large funds? Am I crazy/wrong, or is ignorance and greed now fueling this 'movement'? ANY explanation is greatly appreciated. edit- Shoutout to the mods here for reinstating this post after it was initially removed. The mods over at WSB shadowbanned me after I asked the same question. [link] [comments]  |
| Now is a good time to baseline your resources for news on stocks/investments Posted: 01 Feb 2021 06:02 AM PST With all going on right now with the GME/AMC short squeeze. It is a good time to see which stock news outlets are on which side of the table. Regardless of any personal thoughts on the squeeze matter, you can at least get a better understanding of your resources. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 07:04 AM PST I keep seeing on WallStreetBets and friends talking about TO THE MOON. 🚀🚀🚀 I get the idea. You wait for the shorts to be requested back by the stock holders and thus they have to buy the stock at whatever price its at. Making it jump higher and higher. However, what is stopping them from just sloshing funds back and forth for months with the restrictions? TLDR: I'm an engineer, so equations and how different variables affect different things are interesting. Especially questions about effects over time. The title is the only important part. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 11:38 AM PST Everything on Wall Street bets is a joke right now. I just want some logical insight and opinion rather than everyone aimlessly hoping and spreading BS. Suddenly everyone's an expert on a short squeeze. Thanks in advance guys. [link] [comments]  |
| I don’t have GME, but I’ve seen what people are dropping into it right now. Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:51 PM PST I really hope this doesn't end badly for them. People dropping $100k of life savings into GME and it's just on a straight decline. Damn...I really hope they are not gonna get absolutely shredded. I feel like the original Wallstreet Bets investors are mostly out by now. Just trying to have a discussion [link] [comments]  |
| Why is noone talking about a possible market crash? Posted: 31 Jan 2021 05:28 PM PST The markets are down, this wsb stuff is crazy, hedge funds will have to unload billions of dollars in positions to get out of their shorts, isn't there the possibility of a large correction / market crash? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:05 PM PST Only had a couple shares but couldn't stand the community anymore. I fear that a lot of those guys have been indcotrinated by the hype. Any comment even slightly against the grain or has a notion of common sense to it gets down voted to hell within a few seconds and removed. At this point I'm convinced that wsb has either been hijacked by hf insiders continuing to drive the buy hype or they are complete investing noobs that have no idea what they're doing thinking they'll cash out in a few days. I mean some of the profiles who are spamming this nonsensical shit that I look into are just kids who don't know any better, either cashing out their savings or maxing out credit cards in order to buy more shares. At this point it seems advantageous for the big players to drive the hype and nobody over there realizes it. The spike already happened and the smart people got out, you don't see any posts of people who are still gaining rather you only see screenshots of people throwing all they got at the stock. Sad to say but the stock will continue to decline and along with it you may see the tribalism increase and concentrate to a small group of individuals unable to come to terms with reality. This seems to be the future of wsb. [link] [comments]  |
| Ford's partnership with Google ✅ Posted: 01 Feb 2021 09:19 AM PST Ford ($F) and Google ($GOOGL, $GOOG) today announced a unique strategic partnership to accelerate Ford's transformation and reinvent the connected vehicle experience. Ford has also named Google Cloud its preferred cloud provider to leverage Google's world-class expertise in data, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML). As part of this new, six-year partnership—and beginning in 2023—millions of future Ford and Lincoln vehicles at all price points will be powered by Android, with Google apps and services built-in. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 02:22 PM PST Good for him. He should lock in some profits. As the saying goes, bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. On Jan 13 he had 1,000 15JAN $20c and on Jan 14 he did not have those. Meaning he sold them for, I'd guess, about $1.5 million. On Jan 22 he had 1,000 16APR $12 calls but on Jan 25 he only had 800 which indicates he sold 200 of those calls for, I'd guess, another $1.5 million. Then, on Jan 27 he only had 500 of those 16APR calls left indicating he sold another 300 calls for $10 million (ballpark). edit - to be clear, I'm not being critical of him at all. He is wise to lock in profit. However, I feel like so many people are following him, it would be helpful if he notifying people that he took profit here or there. Sure, they can realize it if they follow each day, but you know those smoothbrains in WSB, they just look at the total value and buy, buy, buy. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 08:20 AM PST All the above mention companies are reporting a reduction in short interest in GME but do the numbers work out? I understand volume on Friday was ~50M, but could the majority of that volume really be shorts covering? I understand short interest is all estimation until the real report comes out on the 9th, but for all the companies to report this individually seems like it might have some weight. Thanks again in advance. Disclosure: Not a financial advisor, also long GME. [link] [comments]  |
| Vanguard: Order cant be accepted because it would exceed available funds Posted: 01 Feb 2021 07:32 AM PST Recently switched to Vanguard and added $1500 which is now available to trade. Vanguard restricts me to using Limit orders. I do 5 Shares at a price of $250 but it won't let me order as it exceeds available funds. Did I miss something? [link] [comments]  |
| What happened to GME Today and Is It Over? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 01:29 PM PST I feel like the last 2 trading days it was much more still than people expected, is there a reason it's now starting to go down. I figured the news media has been up, calls were suppose to be exercised, people have left RH to go to Fidelity, thus likely prepped to buy more, isn't this supposed to cause the prices to actually rise? I know Friday was also a very highly anticipated day as well. Is there a reason then that today was rather still and is the rise over or what could potentially bring the rise back again? [link] [comments]  |
| 5M GME shares failed to deliver, no repercussion? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 11:40 AM PST Checked the 202101a data from https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm, with some aggregation, there are about 5m shares failed to deliver, that is a significant amount of the float, is this market failing? no repercussion? Correct me if I am wrong interpretating the data, aggregation table here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h5g08HJgyyL3U4bWm6OnjQdQdJVLtna2fncpDI3H4iQ/edit?usp=sharing Disclose: I Have 25 shares. $60 3/19 call,115 3/19 call. [link] [comments]  |
| #GME $GME When will the Squeeze by Sqouze? Detailed Analysis Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:56 PM PST So for some reason, can't post this in WSB BUT its important and I hope the Mods see it and pin it? This is a very detailed breakdown of when the squeeze will happen. it is NOT financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. I just like the stock!!! [link] [comments]  |
| Nokia gets upgrade from Barron’s Posted: 01 Feb 2021 11:12 AM PST Not trying to shill as I'm aware this was pushed hard last week on no actual news. Here we have some decent news about Nokia and earnings are Thursday. I'm holding some mid February $4.5 calls and shares for long term. Thoughts on the upgrade or earnings call Thursday? [link] [comments]  |
| With all this crazy GME stuff floating around can i have some facts cleared up Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:42 PM PST With r/stocks having very moderate expectations and r/wallstreetbets having high ones. Can a level headed impartial big brain just clear something up for me on the process. Right now the trade volume is quite low. It seems people are holding. If the hold continues and the hedge funds are forced into a place where they have to buy. With the current short position being above 100% surely this would mean that upon a squeeze even without some of the questionably intelligent holding the stock for the duration the hedge fund/s would have to attempt to buy all of the currently floating shares. Now i can only imagine any attempt to buy that stock would lead to an exponential increase in the share price as they attempt to acquire the 60,000,000. This I'm understanding this as a sort of tending toward 0 asymptote scenario, where as the number of stocks remaining for melvin to buy tends toward 0 the price increases functionally infinitely. How could this work in reality .( this is part 1 of my question, please correct anything i've miss understood) The second bit is upon Melvin's inability to pay does this mean that the 'debt' of having to buy these 60,000,000 gamestop stocks defer to the broker as in a normal margin call upon Melvin's insolvency. Are these shares, all things remaining legal, definitely being purchased. Third bit is even if something is done to suppress the price down to 120 territory, it wouldn't even matter that much as the rate of increase in the price of the shares would make the starting point relatively irrelevant as it will rise enormously during the large purchasing period. Does the price simply need to remain high enough to necessitate the hedge funds to buy I ask all this because ive spent the last few days extensively doing maths and doing models and i keep getting absolutely insane numbers on the predicted price. What am i not seeing? I'm seeing a future event where a hedge fund is going to be forced to buy more than all the shares available leading to an explosion in value adding tens if not hundreds of billions to the market cap coming from first the hedge funds and then the brokers. I'm not looking for some condescending ass response this is a genuine question. IF ... this squeeze happens have i missed something. Is r/stocks measured attitude to this on the basis of it not occurring at all? [link] [comments]  |
| Is it even worth trying to invest in anything that's not a meme right now? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 07:40 AM PST Considering the rest of the market is red, is it even worth investing in things that aren't all over the media? I feel like literally everyone (including myself at one point) is hyperfocused on meme stocks and no one is talking about anything else. I have my GME out of moral support whether or not I lose money on it but I've been trading for about a month to make some chump change a month (enough to pay my car) and it feels like right now, unless it's a meme, it's going down. And meme stocks are basically gambling at this point. (though I support the movement with GME) Any of you doing any trading that doesn't involve meme stocks or slv? [link] [comments]  |
| This sub has gained 600k subscribers since January 1st..... Posted: 01 Feb 2021 04:43 AM PST ..... and that becomes quite obvious when looking at the quality of recent posts. While it's great that Reddit is finally getting some worldwide media attention, all this is coming at a great cost. It feels like we're becoming a second r/wallstreetbets which is NOT a good thing. Even 2-3 months ago, this sub had decent quality posts about actual companies with real business models and good outlooks. Now, most posts are about those WSB Stocks and rocket emojis. I hope we can, once again, regain control of this sub and bring it back to the way it was just a few weeks ago. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| I’ve come here for real conversation. Posted: 01 Feb 2021 02:41 PM PST This is GME related. If you go on WSB you see extremes. People saying ridiculous numbers for gains, and more and more people saying the squeeze may of happened last week, or is less likely to happen. I want actually opinions and not memes. Is there any data on if the squeeze is less likely to happen or if GME won't rise mUch more than $300?? I am currently holding still and don't intend on selling. [link] [comments]  |
| Starbucks has the benefit of being able to operate as an unregulated bank? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 09:06 AM PST Found an interesting video which shows that Starbucks has the #1 restaurant app, beating out Dominos Pizza. They have a compelling rewards program and 50% of their customers consistently use it. The restaurant app has 1.5 billion dollars in cash reserves at any given time. They've convinced customers to loan them 1.5 billion dollars worth of cash. Interest free. And the icing on the cake is that 10% of that money ends up being completely forgotten and unused. They have more money than 85% of banks in the US with the added benefit of not having to be regulated as a bank. They don't have to pay out interest, or keep extra cash reserves. A significant portion of that money can be reinvested into the market. Or be used to open up new stores. What are your thoughts? Is Starbucks secretly an undervalued company? Or do you think this fact is priced in already? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2021 08:12 AM PST Disney earning is on 2.11 after hour. Prediction: revenue in-line or better; beat earning; Disney + subscriber around 95M or better. Depending on how much they beat, stock may easily trade in 180--200 after earning. Revenue and profit: Current consensus is 15.8B and -0.4 EPS from Yahoo Finance. DIS has been beating analysts in Q2 and Q3. Disney parks are reported busy and on capacity limit in Q4, especially in December. They raised limit from 25% to 35% as well. So this shall adds very positively to Q4 revenue. Disney + subscribers at 87M on Dec 2, over 74M at end of Q3. With all the revenue increase and recent layoffs, and in Q2 & Q3 they both posted about 15B revenue & close to breakeven profit --- It looks an easy setup for DIS to beat Q4 eps again, and match 15.8B revenue. My conservative estimate is about 15.7B revenue, and -0.1 EPS. But my high estimate have them on >16B revenue and 0.15 EPS. Disney + subscribers: the key growth driver. My lowest estimate is 92M, and my average estimate is 94---96M, high-end is 100M. From NFLX ER, NFLX increased 4M in Oct -- Nov, and another 4M in Dec. They have better increase rate in Dec due to holiday season and Covid lockdown in some countries. From Comcast ER, Peacork increased 13M subscriber in Q4. From DIS investor day, we know DIS + increased 13M in Oct -- Nov alone. And they have Mulan, Mando last 3 episodes, Soul on Disney +, all after 12.2 (Investor day cut-off result for 87M subscribers). Based on the above information, Disney + at least should have 5M more subscribers in Dec, and potentially 10M or more => bringing the total to 92---100M. In any case, it will be a big feat for Disney +. If it does break 100M, the media will be crazy about its growth, and potentially dethroning NFLX in 2022. Stock -> 200+. Stock Price: Comcast increased 3% after ER, NFLX 10% (and at one time almost 20%). Assuming DIS on 2.11 closes around 170 (since it never gets any attention, despite the growth picture being very clear now); and the results match the prediction --- stock will likely trade in 180---200 post ER, depending on how large they beat; with a potential to over 200 if they have >100M subscriber. Disclosure: I have DIS leaps expiring after 2022. My long-term DIS target price is 200--300 this year, and 300--400 in 2022--2023. Finally, all ER comes with some risk, so be cautious with any weekly option bets. [link] [comments]  |
| Isn’t the little guy still being screwed? Posted: 01 Feb 2021 12:32 PM PST Hear me out... The GME movement (or whatever you want to call it) formed out of a passion to "stick it to the man" and "money for the little guy". Isn't what's happening the same? Except now we have a new set of "big guys" who bought in at $50, and a bunch of "little guys" spending money at $300-400. The new little guys artificially pump the stock so a guy who invested 50k can become a millionaire while they are stuck bag holding. [link] [comments]  |
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