Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32% Fed estimates.
- The 11 Sectors of the Stock Market - ETFs For All
- Why is the Fed working so hard to keep the market from crashing?
- China manufacturing activity for March is... up?
- Reuters: U.S. Air Force finds additional deficiency in Boeing's aerial fuel system
- If you believe the market has not yet bottomed out, what is your strongest argument that we still have further down to go?
- The Federal Reserve will slow the pace at which it buys Treasuries under its unlimited quantitative easing program. (It has been at 75 billion dollars PER DAY.)
- The nearly complete consensus on this sub that the market is going way lower in the coming days, weeks, and months should tell you it won't.
- Is this a dead-cat bounce or the bottom investors have been waiting for? Dow Jones up to 20% in the last 20 days yet economic uncertainty are doubled prior peak
- What’s powering the stock market right now?
- Moody's cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to 'negative'
- SPY Bull running out of steam - Price sustained by declining volume
- Did we miss the bottom?
- JPMorgan says the coronavirus market rout has probably hit bottom already
- Long term stocks to buy into now?
- Is it possible to trade from Montenegro?
- Why Tanker Stocks are happy about Oil Prices.
- China PMI rose back to 52
- Why are Airline Stocks bad for Long Term?
- UNCTAD says China and India are less likely to go into recession. Why is that?
- US, Russia agree to oil market talks
- Genuine question- is the supposed “unlimited quantitative easing” (suggested by many posters here) and associated cash influx to mortgage bonds going to obliterate the rate hedging done by mortgage bankers?
- Weird dip/blip after hours? Across a few companies
- Limit commands - public data?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 30 Mar 2020 05:18 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32% Fed estimates. Posted: 30 Mar 2020 09:09 AM PDT Good time to sell into the upsurging market on Wall Street? [link] [comments]  |
| The 11 Sectors of the Stock Market - ETFs For All Posted: 30 Mar 2020 03:53 PM PDT The stock market is often broken up into a few different categories that gives a general overall look at the economy. With the markets recent crash, the next few months will have some great buying opportunities for a lot of industries. One of the easiest ways to invest is through ETFs. Below are some of the different industries that make up the entire economy. I have listed some ETFs that I believe are some of the best ones for each category. Check them out and let me know what other good ones I missed. --------------- -- Technology -- The technology sector consists of electronics manufacturers, software developers and information technology firms. In general, these businesses are driven by upgrade cycles and the general health of the economy, although growth has been robust over the years. --------------- -- Utilities -- The utilities sector consists of electric, gas and water companies as well as integrated providers. In general, the sector generates consistent recurring income by charging consumers and businesses that provide higher-than-average dividend yields. --------------- -- Healthcare -- The healthcare sector consists of biotechnology companies, hospital management firms, medical device manufacturers and many others. In general, the sector is considered to be both a growth opportunity and defensive play since people will always require medical aid. --------------- -- Industrials -- The industrial sector consists of aerospace, defense, machinery, construction, fabrication and manufacturing companies. In general, the industry's growth is driven by demand for building construction and manufactured products like agricultural equipment. --------------- -- Telecom -- The telecom sector consists of wireless providers, cable companies, internet service providers and satellite companies, among others. In general, these companies generate recurring revenue from consumers, but some subsets of the industry are facing rapid change. --------------- -- Energy -- The energy sector consists of oil and gas exploration and production companies, as well as integrated power firms, refineries and other operations. In general, these companies generate revenue that's tied to the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities. --------------- -- Consumer Staples -- The consumer staples sector consists of food and beverage companies as well as companies that create products consumers are unwilling to cut from their budgets. In general, these companies are defensive plays capable of withstanding an economic downturn. --------------- -- Materials -- The materials sector consists of mining, refining, chemical, forestry and related companies that are focused on discovering and developing raw materials. Since these companies are at the beginning of the supply chain, they are vulnerable to changes in the business cycle.
--------------- -- Consumer Discretionary -- The consumer discretionary sector consists of retailers, media companies, consumer service providers, apparel companies and consumer durables. In general, these companies benefit from an improving economy when consumer spending accelerates.
--------------- -- Financials -- The financial sector consists of banks, investment funds, insurance companies and real estate firms, among others. In general, the majority of the revenue generated by the sector comes from mortgages and loans that gain value as interest rates rise. --------------- -- Real Estate -- The real estate sector consists of companies invested in residential, industrial, and retail real estate. The main source of revenue for these companies comes from rent income and real estate capital appreciation. As a result, this sector is sensitive to interest rate changes. --------------- I plan on buying these ETFs every week after the next sell off 50/50 or 33/33/33 for each sector. And allocating my total percents as: Technology - 25% M1 Finance Pie with all this added: https://m1.finance/-30zYl69_AG0 Sources: https://etfdb.com/etf-education/the-10-sectors-of-the-stock-market/ [link] [comments]  |
| Why is the Fed working so hard to keep the market from crashing? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 09:10 PM PDT While COVID-19 is an unprecedented event... Why is the Fed keeping the stock market afloat with all it's ammunition. If the stock market crashes then it crashes.... Isn't that what capitalism is all about? [link] [comments]  |
| China manufacturing activity for March is... up? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 06:22 PM PDT |
| Reuters: U.S. Air Force finds additional deficiency in Boeing's aerial fuel system Posted: 31 Mar 2020 12:54 AM PDT
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| Posted: 31 Mar 2020 12:30 AM PDT If you believe we have not hit the bottom, what is your strongest argument for the idea that markets are still going to drop further down. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2020 03:52 PM PDT My questions are at the end of this post. Thank you. On Bloomberg from 3 days ago: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The Federal Reserve will slow the pace at which it buys Treasuries under its unlimited quantitative easing program. The U.S. central bank, which has been aggressively purchasing Treasuries for the past two weeks in a bid to offset the economic and market fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, on Friday said that it would dial back the daily pace of buying to $60 billion next Thursday and Friday. It will continue purchasing at the existing pace of $75 billion a day for the first three days of next week. "This is a more nimble Fed, at least opposed to the earlier QE Fed, because they're not operating off a rule book -- they're trying to calibrate the amount needed and retaining flexibility," said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities. "The fact that they're easing into it is a good sign, they're trying to get more data, the fact they're giving us a week notice, that's good." If $60 billion a day proves too little, Misra said she wouldn't be surprised to see them increase the amount again. The central bank announced its return to quantitative easing earlier this month as virus concerns ripped through global markets and the prospects for the global economy cratered. And this past Monday it declared that it would purchase assets "in the amounts needed to support the smooth functioning of markets." It has bought Treasuries at a steady clip of $75 billion a day since then, although there was some talk in the market that the monetary authority might look to ease back. They couldn't buy $75 billion a day forever, so "stepping it back slowly" to $60 billion "makes sense," said Thomas Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies LLC. "They've been having a few of the purchases under-subscribed so that's a sign they don't have to go full bore." At this pace the Fed will have bought almost $1 trillion dollars of Treasuries by end of next week. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Original Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/fed-set-to-dial-back-pace-of-qe-treasury-buying-next-thursday Note that the article says the Fed has been buying Treasuries at 75 billion dollars PER DAY and that the Fed will have bought almost $1 trillion dollars of Treasuries by the end of the week. Is this a sustainable pace? What if it is not? If it is not sustainable, when will the Fed stop? What will happen to the treasure yield when the Fed stops buying at this crazy pace? Could someone please give some overall insight on how this will work out, especially with the context of what happens if the Fed stops buying treasuries at 60 to 75 billion dollars per day. Thank you. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2020 04:03 PM PDT We are at a point where almost every comment is pessimistic about stocks. The sentiment of the comments has not only not changed since March 23, it has actually gotten worse. That makes no sense. Things happened since then. The passage of a $2 trillion relief bill. The significant advancements in testing and vaccines. The unlimited QE/liquidity promised by the Fed. No these things aren't without consequences, but you can't just say inflation is going to get out of control when you have no idea what you're talking about. Regardless of whether you think those things will fix the whole virus problem (I don't either), you still have to admit the expectation of market value should be higher than it was before those things happened. You guys aren't all smarter than the market. In fact, given that market makers are primarily institutional with access to petaflops of computing power and enormous datasets larger than the entire amount of text you've consumed in your life, you should probably accept that the majority of people on this sub are much dumber than the market. No, the market is not perfect. It's slow to react to information. But you don't have information the market has been slow to react to. Not right now. If you have this percentage of people on one online forum agreeing on something, and the market disagrees, the people on the forum are wrong. Forums with upvote/downvote systems discourage disagreement. Markets discourage (financially disincentivize) being wrong. If you're betting on stocks going back toward the lows of March 23, you're betting against unlimited Fed action, 3-4 months of GDP support from Congress/Treasury, and the progress of some of the greatest drug companies in the history of man. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2020 12:19 PM PDT *Correction: Dow Jones up to 20% in the last 7 days Global stocks: Edging lower, and oil prices have plunged to 17-year lows at the start of another week set to be dominated by the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. stocks: Rallied on Monday. The investor optimism came despite President Trump extending the U.S. lockdown to April 30 and public health officials warning that the American death toll could be between 100,000 and 200,000 with cases in the millions. UBS Analyst Comment: Equities remain the most 'pessimistic' across asset classes (pricing global growth at 0.3%), followed by commodities (0.7%), rates and credit markets (both 0.9%). At 3% implied growth, cyclical currencies send the most optimistic signal. Nevertheless, equity market bottom may yet to come However, economic uncertainty continues to skyrocket & is now more than double prior peak as you can see here: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1244585147099381761/photo/1 Today's closing market data (from Reuters) Stocks
Breakdown---------------------------------------------------- What asset classes are you investing? (equities, commodities, bonds, alternative assets) What platforms are you using to invest the different asset class? For ETFs I am using Vanguard (https://investor.vanguard.com/), for alternative funds & portfolios Daedalus (https://daedalus.investments/) and for shares & options Robinhood (https://robinhood.com/). Which other platforms do you recommend? Do you think markets will run bull from now or is it a bull trap? Will VIX follow contango or backwardation period in the next few weeks? [link] [comments]  |
| What’s powering the stock market right now? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 01:09 PM PDT Is it just FOMO? Is everything truly priced in and stocks are just going to go back up now? Is QE and the stimulus package actually enough to cancel out all the bad news? Maybe I'm pessimistic but I don't see this being the V shaped recovery everyone is hoping for. What do you all think? Buy or sell? [link] [comments]  |
| Moody's cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to 'negative' Posted: 30 Mar 2020 03:16 PM PDT Moody's Investors Service has cut its outlook on corporate debt to negative, saying that an economy about to tip into recession because of the coronavirus will result in rising default rates. The ratings agency warned that sectors "most sensitive to consumer demand and sentiment" will be especially hard-hit due to social distancing measures that slashed economic activity. They include global passenger airlines, the lodging and cruise industries, and autos. In addition, plummeting energy prices will leave the oil and gas sector exposed, while banks also will face a challenging environment amid falling interest rates that eat into profitability and a deteriorating economy that will undermine credit quality. "The coronavirus will cause an unprecedented shock to the global economy," Edmond DeForest, senior credit officer at Moody's, said in a report. "We have revised our growth forecasts downward for 2020 as the rising economic costs of the coronavirus shock and the policy responses to combat the downturn are becoming clearer. Business activity will likely fall sharply across advanced economies in the first half of 2020." The warnings comes even after the Federal Reserve took the unusual step of saying it would be buying corporate debt as a way to keep liquidity flowing in a market that froze up after the government announced social distancing measures. While Moody's said central bank intervention will help, some of the most heavily indebted sectors still will be vulnerable. The Fed's purchases will be limited to investment-grade companies with strong credit quality. "Government support will cushion the blow for some companies, but it is unlikely to prevent distress at businesses with less certain long-term viability," DeForest wrote. Nonfinancial corporate debt totaled $6.6 trillion at the end of 2019, a 78% increase since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009. Low interest rates and easy financing terms helped fuel the boom. Investor protections known as covenants have been around all-time lows, meaning that some buyers could see big losses in event of defaults. There also are companies on the borderline of investment grade and in danger of sliding to junk status that are posing risks for the corporate bond market. Goldman Sachs estimates that $765 billion worth of investment- and high-yield bonds have experienced ratings downgrades already in 2020. DeForest also noted significant refinance risks — some $169 billion of debt will come due in 2020 and $300 billion in 2021 and rolling over that debt will be difficult "under these trying conditions," DeForest said. [link] [comments]  |
| SPY Bull running out of steam - Price sustained by declining volume Posted: 31 Mar 2020 02:58 AM PDT Taking a look at the SPY charts, you can see it's been moving sideways since the 26th. If you recall recently fund managers have been rebalancing their portfolios since last week to maintain their client's bond/equities ratio. Now if you look back at the accum/distri chart. You can see SPY has returned to accum mode on the 26th as well. This shift signifies buy-side pressure is finally returning to sustain the prices. However, you can also see that the volume has been steadily declining. RSI's gradual decline from 70 down to 63 the past few days confirm the trend. All this seems to suggest that the SPY bump as of late is running out of steam, being rejected from the $260 resistance yesterday. Without Donnie or JPow pumping the market again at 9am today we could stand to see another leg down returning to the general bear market. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2020 12:49 PM PDT Held off on buying, now everything's rebounding. Lost out on short-terms gains of 20-30% on a lot of blue-chip stocks. For the record, I was looking at BMO on the TSX (Canadian Bank). It fell 46% and has rebounded 18% already (was 25% for a bit) from low a week ago. Also pays dividend of 6.16% [link] [comments]  |
| JPMorgan says the coronavirus market rout has probably hit bottom already Posted: 30 Mar 2020 05:54 AM PDT |
| Long term stocks to buy into now? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 07:16 PM PDT Any advice on good stocks to buy into now, while everything is relatively cheap? I am thinking about MGM, AAL, SLV, and XOM as well. Basically trying to grab ones that are low now but have a decent potential to rise up in the next year or so. Does anyone have other advice on good ones to grab? I know things are crazy now but wanted some input. [link] [comments]  |
| Is it possible to trade from Montenegro? Posted: 31 Mar 2020 02:25 AM PDT I want to trade with American stocks, but I'm not an American citizen. Is it possible to trade with US stocks from my country with an online trading platform? [link] [comments]  |
| Why Tanker Stocks are happy about Oil Prices. Posted: 30 Mar 2020 11:01 AM PDT Hello r/investing! I saw someone earlier today ask on how to capitalize on the current oil price and it finally pushed me over the edge to make a post on some findings I have had the past two weeks. A BIT ABOUT MYSELF:I'll start by warning you I am not all that experienced in this field. I made it a New Years Resolution to learn and invest more heavily this year, and I began to aggressively dollar cost average in. I felt pretty good until a few weeks ago when suddenly it felt like everything was red and would be for a long time. I felt like I had just stepped up to the poker table, and a shootout broke out in the saloon. While the losses didn't look good, I saw this as a tremendous opportunity to pick up some chips off the floor in the chaos. Below is my argument for a great deal of those chips on the floor, but I don't know how longer they will say. THE PLAY:Let's talk about shipping. The past few years the industry has seen bearish waters and much of the sector has consolidated. Environmental regulations have further taken ships off the market. The industry saw a bump in the end of 2019, and this year has been sold off massively the past few weeks. With COVID, dry goods and general shipping is getting slammed. So funds and anything related to shipping was sold off significantly. However, the subset of oil tanker stocks are primed for an absolutely insane year. The market environment and COVID is set to give crude tanker companies the opportunity to profit at a rate unlike they have seen in decades. THE BULL EVIDENCE:Contango: The current price of oil is so low, investors know they can buy it at the price it is now, and sell it for a significant profit later. You have to buy it now though, and where are you going to keep it? Oil land storage is set to fill up within weeks, and the most cost efficient method of storing oil is offshore on a tanker (VLCC). However, since the number of VLCCs available has shrank (scrapping, bought by Saudi's, or even held up due to quarantine delays) it has driven up the rates of these tankers. Where they once were signing contracts for 20k a day they are now regularly in the 100k+ range (even going so high as to 300k a day). Tanker/Oil Demand: Since VLCCs are being taken off the market (both by Saudi's using them to ship their cheap oil, and storage rates) this is looking to spillover into smaller tankers as well. Afromax and Supramax tankers are getting taken off the books and driving prices upward across the board. With more oil being pumped but demand continuing to go down these tankers are looking to be parked for months. With supplies slowly getting chipped at once demand starts back up again. Positive Earnings despite insane selloff: Every earnings call that I was able to dig up the past two weeks has had an incredible air of positivity to it, which is refreshing given most of the market sentiment. In fact, every call I listened to said they planned on adding to their dividend and initiating stock buyback programs. TNP went so far as to say "And when I said mindboggling, it's for the whole bunker industry. It's not, I mean, in our case. It's because we know -- I mean -- the Company right now -- we are valued almost as much as cash that we're in the bank, which is -- it is very, very cheap. I think it's a very good investment for us to make." Find me another industry right now that is talking like this or is as positive forward looking because I see a whole lot of earnings and guidance getting put on hold. The CEO for INSW said "This is a once-in-a-generation type of event," Zabrocky says, noting charterers are starting to book vessels with storage options for periods of more than a year. Insider Buys: Insider activity is a lovely indicator as to the general sentiment within an industry. Selling tells you a little, but I think buying tells you a lot. I think when you have buying across the sector, from multiple players it tells you veeery good things. Buying of this sort causes analyists to throw around words that get me hard like "parabolic" WHY AM I TELLING YOU THIS:Well frankly, I have maxed out my position on this play already. Anything else and I am digging into margin (personal no-no), and I have already thus far seen significant gains while still believing there are more to be made. It is my opinion there are at least a dollar worth of earnings the next year being sold for a quarter. Most of these guys cargo rates are spiking 10x compared to last year. I have also found nothing but bullish articles and arguments for my position and I am hoping to perhaps find a bearish one among you out there who have more experience than a guy bored at his computer all day. Since I have been in quarantine, I have felt slightly insane researching a sector I once hardly knew about that none of my friends have any interest in. I am hoping to engage in some interesting discussion with you folk here. Call me an idiot, just tell me why. Here to learn and find better way to do things. Including relevant news sources below for those of you that like it spoon fed. SOURCES: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3555610-tanker-firm-predicts-100m-barrels-of-oil-stored-on-ships https://seekingalpha.com/news/3552424-nordic-tankers-says-tanker-market-is-strongest-seen-in-decades https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/03/19/crude-contango/ TANKER NEWS: https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/vlcc-bulls-take-charge-with-daily-rates-spiking-to-180-000/2-1-783290 https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/forward-curve-sugars-storage-market-as-vlcc-daily-rates-rise-12-000/2-1-782663 INSIDER BUYS: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/12/why-scorpio-bulkers-shares-popped-144-today.aspx NAT has had several board members buy shares, double dividend, and started buyback: http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/24/2005669/0/en/Nordic-American-Tankers-Ltd-NYSE-NAT-Purchase-of-shares-by-NAT-board-member.html http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/26/2006962/0/en/Nordic-American-Tankers-Ltd-NYSE-NAT-Finance-Manager-purchases-NAT-shares.html http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/18/2002569/0/en/Nordic-American-Tankers-Ltd-NYSE-NAT-Buy-back-program.html TLDR: Long relavent tickers include : NAT, EURN, STNG, TNK, LPG, DHT, SFL, INSW, TNP, SFL, FRO [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Mar 2020 12:27 AM PDT |
| Why are Airline Stocks bad for Long Term? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 04:21 PM PDT Keep in mind everything in this post is long term, and this is in relation to holding these stocks for a minimum of a few years. Some of the smartest and most successful investors I know are buying a lot of airline stocks, and others are saying I'm an absolute idiot for considering it. I totally understand why the cruise lines, even being so cheap, is a gamble considering the big ones don't pay taxes in the United States and potentially could go bankrupt if this virus goes too long. They obviously weren't in the stimulus package. But airlines like American Airlines, Delta, and JetBlue I just don't see still suffering 2-3 years from now (assuming we have the vaccine in 18 months or under). Why are some people such against airline stocks for a long term investor? Thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| UNCTAD says China and India are less likely to go into recession. Why is that? Posted: 30 Mar 2020 11:20 PM PDT |
| US, Russia agree to oil market talks Posted: 30 Mar 2020 11:38 AM PDT So we've got a more a more official move towards a possible deal or cooperation in the oil markets. Again this is early and it's tough tough to say if anything will come of it, but the fact that Putin is stepping in here on the side of a potential deal bodes well. It's also been speculated that half of the reason that Russia nixed the prior deal in the first place was because of US sanctions, so that's something that might come up again. These are slow steps and today was another big day down for oil, but hopefully this is a beginning of a new deal to help cut production until the worst of the virus passes. I think it's unlikely the market ends up totally balance here but the chances of avoid production hikes and getting some cuts seem to be a bit better than they were after the last OPEC+ deal fell apart. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 30 Mar 2020 09:03 PM PDT It seems like the sudden flood of money (250 billion... much more than 2008, I believe that was <100 billion) into mortgage bonds, the rate changes, and the flood of people unable to pay their mortgages would be a brewing disaster for the housing market and mortgage bankers in particular. Can someone with more experience in the field speak to this? Are we going to have big issues in the housing market shortly? [link] [comments]  |
| Weird dip/blip after hours? Across a few companies Posted: 30 Mar 2020 10:01 PM PDT I'm still new to stocks so forgive my ignorance but I noticed that at least Coke, Sprint, Amazon, and Google all have this strange dip (~3%) after hours all around the same time. Any idea what that is? Is this just how stocks move with far less volume? Also found Verizon and Adobe with the same deal. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Mar 2020 02:58 AM PDT If they're public - is it possible to use them in order to find resistence and support levels? How? Edit: limit orders* [link] [comments]  |
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