Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- Did the disease that must not be named just kill the AirBnB IPO and maybe the company?
- PSA: A turd on discount is still a turd.
- Fed and the Treasury are pretty much the same entity with the new bill
- Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931
- Don’t Apply 2008 Thinking to Today’s Crisis
- RIP Dow Jones Bear Market Mar '20 - Mar '20
- Powell: "We're not going to run out of ammunition"
- Are large index funds (S&P500) overvalued by design?
- The scariest thing to happen so far: Jerome Powell giving interview
- Calling it now. This bull trap peaks today or tomorrow. Market down monday for sure.
- Short Zoom Technology Inc (ZOOM)
- The one billion dollar question - are we in a classic bull trap?
- Question: when a triple leveraged fund goes under
- Banks Poised for Big Win on Loan Losses in Senate’s Virus Bill
- 401k and covid-19 no penalty withdrawal, low income year, why not convert to brokerage?
- Looking at big declines in SPY in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2018 there is always a short lived recovery before market retest the low or sets a new low. Do you think this is happening here?
- Executives are buying stock in droves, giving a 'strong' signal that the comeback is for real
- Dow and market going up but one big indicator still going down !
- NAV premium Discount
- Insights from McKinsey
- Russia's RDIF: New OPEC+ deal possible to address demand if others join
- I’m new to the stock market and I have a really stupid question. Why do people sell all their stocks when there is a crash in the market? Why don’t they just hang on to their stocks until the market rebounds?
- Why Lehman Brothers wasn't bailed out?
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:13 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| Did the disease that must not be named just kill the AirBnB IPO and maybe the company? Posted: 27 Mar 2020 06:19 AM PDT On top of likely slashing billions off of its valuation, do you guys think the changing sentiment towards Airbnb has changed the outlook for the company in general? [link] [comments]  |
| PSA: A turd on discount is still a turd. Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:07 AM PDT So I keep seeing post popping up asking "hi stock X is now down 30,40,50,60 percent should I buy it??" and that stock was already was down 30,40,50,60 percent over the last 5 years. the answer is no, don't. There's a reason they are spiraling downwards, in most cases its because its a turd of a company. can they turn around? sure, but in most cases its very unlikely. don't try to strike gold by polishing turds and hoping to find a giant gold nugget when theres plenty of non-turd , shiny gold nuggets laying around right in front of your eyes. My personal advice, pick those up, buy the companies that were performing exceptionally well before the market crash and you will be way more likely to succeed. Its better to have a high quality companies with a 15% discount, than a turd 90% off. [link] [comments]  |
| Fed and the Treasury are pretty much the same entity with the new bill Posted: 27 Mar 2020 07:11 AM PDT https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cure-risks-being-worse-110052347.html TL:DR - Fed can only buy or lend against securities that have government guarantee. Since a lot of the new helicopter money is aimed at securities that are NOT gov guaranteed, the Fed instead gives that money to the government (the Treasury) to do the purchasing themselves. The new Fed chairman is, by extension, Donald Trump. [link] [comments]  |
| Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931 Posted: 26 Mar 2020 01:04 PM PDT |
| Don’t Apply 2008 Thinking to Today’s Crisis Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:34 AM PDT Yesterday, it was reported that 3.28 million Americans filed for unemployment in the past week. This number dwarfed official expectations (about 1 million) as well as any previous figures ever reported, including during the Great Recession. There is also good reason to believe that this number does not even capture all of those who lost their livelihoods in the last seven days. A combination of confusion, bad information, and bureaucracy, coupled with the fact that many of these Americans will be filing for the first time, means that the number laid off may be much higher. Yet, in the hours after the announcement, the US equities market rallied 4 percent, extending a three day "winning streak," as many of those in the business would call it. But let's be clear: there are no winners to be declared in the midst of this crisis. The President has been quick to express hope for a fast economic re-opening. Wall Street has been continually calling out for a "V-shaped" recovery, or a quick rebound off of a bottom. A string of hedge fund managers, politicians, and pundits appear on television and in our Twitter feeds daily, reassuring us of what is possible. Financial markets, with little left to grasp onto, have clung to this sentiment. Deep breaths. It will all be okay. This too shall pass. Thoughts and prayers. "IN 2008, BANKS WERE UNDERCAPITALIZED. THIS WAS REALLY THE ROOT OF THE SYSTEMIC FAILURE THAT OCCURRED. THIS TIME, IT IS HOSPITALS THAT ARE OVERCAPACITY. " Economists, analysts and big bank CEOs tell us that there is nothing to fear because this time is different from 2008. This time there is no risk of systemic failure. There are three points I would like to raise in light of this argument: 1. Dismissing risk of systemic failure is premature. Systemic failure is almost by definition hard to discern ahead of time or even in the moment. It is nearly impossible to accurately forecast the cascade of downstream effects. Very few have the privilege of a bird's eye view perspective in any given crisis. We are more likely to be foot soldiers in the fog of war than generals drawing battle lines. Therefore, it is devilishly difficult to see how a systemic failure will develop and affect other parts of the system as well as other systems altogether. Even those who are in a position to see it all, often do not. Like the general in his bunker, it is too easy to become disconnected from reality on the ground. Banks are well capitalized this time, so from the perspective of the financial system, that particular systemic risk appears to no longer be relevant. But there are plenty of other cracks that are currently coming under pressure. Notably, central bankers globally have few conventional options left to stimulate growth as they have pursued nothing but easy monetary policies for the last decade. 2. When the foundation itself is crumbling, a cascade of systemic failures is unnecessary to bring down the structure. It is a known phenomenon that political leaders rely on comfortable, old fashioned frameworks when confronting novel crises. American and European leaders demonstrated this in the 1950s and 1960s, turning to World War II paradigms as they confronted a geopolitical landscape in which that thinking no longer applied. The same can be said of American leaders who responded to 9/11 by leaning on Cold War reasoning. I believe the same is happening now with political and financial leaders in regard to 2008. "Because there is no systemic risk," the 2008 line of reasoning goes, "the fallout will be contained." But when more than three million people lose their jobs in a single week, you don't need systemic risk to see unmitigated fallout. This may not be a financial crisis, but it is certainly an economic crisis. 3. Just because systemic failure is not occurring within the financial system, does not mean it is not happening. Just look at the healthcare system. In 2008, banks were undercapitalized. This was really the root of the systemic failure that occurred. This time, it is hospitals that are overcapacity. The overwhelming number of severe cases of coronavirus is overwhelming hospital resources around the world. Ventilators, personal protective equipment, and healthcare workers themselves are suddenly in very short supply. This affects not only COVID-19 patients, but also all those who need medical attention for any reason. Pregnant women, gunshot victims, kids with broken wrists, older folks with a bad case of the run-of-the-mill flu all get affected. There's your systemic failure. I generally subscribe to the old adage that the most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different," but this time really is different from the last crisis we saw. It is so different, in fact, that we cannot take refuge that it does not look like 2008. That reality should not be used as a salve or a comfort, but should rather be taken as a warning to us. If it did look like 2008, at a minimum we would be dealing with a known. Instead, we are confronting the unknown and all of the unknown unknowns that go along with that. [link] [comments]  |
| RIP Dow Jones Bear Market Mar '20 - Mar '20 Posted: 26 Mar 2020 01:20 PM PDT We survived it all. From a low point of 18340.26 on March 23 (Monday) to today we've gained 22.9% since then putting us until bull market territory! [link] [comments]  |
| Powell: "We're not going to run out of ammunition" Posted: 26 Mar 2020 10:03 PM PDT A trick you can use to see if someone is lying is to ask yourself whether they would ever say the opposite. Would the Fed ever admit they're out of bullets? No. Meaning they're probably out of bullets. Money printing doesn't fix demand and supply shock. [link] [comments]  |
| Are large index funds (S&P500) overvalued by design? Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:03 AM PDT I'm concerned about whether large index funds, such as S&P500, are valued fairly due to the following logical argumentation:
Is the above logic correct? Or are there market forces which correspondingly increase supply whenever there is increased demand? Given that passive investors will buy the index no matter what its price is, it seems unlikely that there is a constant increase of supply (people selling the index) to account for the increase of demand (passive investors) -- the sellers would eventually run out of stock to sell, and the buyers never stop buying. [link] [comments]  |
| The scariest thing to happen so far: Jerome Powell giving interview Posted: 26 Mar 2020 06:27 PM PDT I don't know if a Fed chair has ever given an interview in the middle of a crisis. This question was actually asked by the interviewer but Powell kinda side stepped the question. If people don't already know, one of the biggest powers the Fed really has, is how they influences the public's confidence in the economy. Powell giving an interview like this actually scares me, seems like they are really scared. [link] [comments]  |
| Calling it now. This bull trap peaks today or tomorrow. Market down monday for sure. Posted: 26 Mar 2020 12:49 PM PDT edit: I retract much of what I said. Read the full stimulus package. 20% rally on news of giant stimulus package almost certain to pass. Sp500 is now up to 2600, down just 20% from all time highs. Meanwhile, what's the forward outlook? Many businesses will continue to stay shut down for months. Loans will prevent some bankruptcies, but will have a severe negative impact on future earnings as they must be paid back. Stimulus checks and boosted unemployment will drive increase consumer activity, but for non-essential industries that are shut down, they won't see any of that money. What other positive news comes after this? Congress likely won't take further action for a few weeks. Cases will continue to explode. States and municipalities will start resorting to more strict and drastic measures, as well as other countries. Then of course, there's the slim possibility that as things get much worse, Trump flips(he does often) and decides on a national shutdown, which could kill markets. I'm guessing the market hits the circuit breaker on Monday after a weekend of bad looking news. Personally, I predict market will bottom out again at 2200 in a couple weeks. When things start looking really grim, I'll buy back in. [link] [comments]  |
| Short Zoom Technology Inc (ZOOM) Posted: 27 Mar 2020 07:07 AM PDT I was able to short a few shares of ZOOM and not ZM, however now that trading has been halted. What happens to my shorts? [link] [comments]  |
| The one billion dollar question - are we in a classic bull trap? Posted: 26 Mar 2020 07:49 AM PDT Hi all, The markets are on track for a third straight green day with Dow currently at +4% at the time of this writing, and having that crazy rally 3 days ago with 13%~ increase. Historical unemployment rates that are worse than the great depression and no solution in sight for the virus (especially in the US with the president not taking action with a full lockdown) means that there are many more deaths to come. The tourism, entertainment and sports industries (among full others) are completely crushed. And we still didn't get to the supply chains issues (Iphone 12 has been postponed by a few months already, total smartphones shipments have decreased YoY in the most amount ever, etc).. What makes America a powerhouse - consumerism - is on hold. So why are the stocks going up? Is this truly phase 2 of a bull trap or magically the US decided that printing money and offering 2 trillion dollars will solve everything and they were actually right? Maybe I'm stupid, maybe I waited too much on the sidelines but when you hear that even the Olympics got postponed which only happened previously twice at war times, it's almost 'obvious' that the market will at least crash more than 2008, at least. So, thoughts? Yeah, I know that this might be the daily what if thread but also I'm truly confused. Would love your thoughts on this wild market right now. [link] [comments]  |
| Question: when a triple leveraged fund goes under Posted: 27 Mar 2020 06:44 AM PDT OILU - triple leveraged crude was at $90 a few years ago and now it is at 4 cents. It seems like it will basically cease to exist? Will Proshares then list a new lower priced triple leveraged fund? How does this work? Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Banks Poised for Big Win on Loan Losses in Senate’s Virus Bill Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:26 AM PDT (Bloomberg) -- The banking industry is close to gaining relief from a much-hated accounting rule imposed after the 2008 financial crisis, thanks to a provision tucked deep in the Senate's massive coronavirus aid bill.The legislation, which still must be voted on by the House, would likely delay until the end of the year a requirement that lenders partially write down losses when they make a loan –- a directive that banks say paints an unfair picture of their books and could stymie lending, especially during a time of economic tumult. Lawmakers also added a separate provision that would make it easier for banks to temporarily modify loans without downgrading them to troubled status, a step meant to give flexibility for borrowers under pressure in this pandemic. https://news.yahoo.com/banks-poised-big-win-loan-151913350.html [link] [comments]  |
| 401k and covid-19 no penalty withdrawal, low income year, why not convert to brokerage? Posted: 26 Mar 2020 09:34 PM PDT With this new bill, you can withdrawal money from your 401(k) and not get hit with the 10% early penalty. Since you have to still pay income tax on it wether its now or when your retired and take it out (ie: 70), why wouldn't you use this opportunity to take it out of the 401(k) and into a regular investment account, effectively just making you more liquid and unchaining you from the bounds of a 401(k)? What am I missing, what other negatives are there? Since this is a low income year for me, isnt this the perfect time to pay the eventual income tax now, and put it in a brokerage? From what I understand, the only difference is paying income tax now vs later ( dependent on your tax bracket of course, but for this exercise, lets say you are in the same tax bracket ).... Using my example why else wouldn't I do take out all my money from my 401(k) and put right back in to the same ETFs? Isn't this No Penalty Withdrawal just a "Get out of Jail" Free Card? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Mar 2020 04:08 PM PDT |
| Executives are buying stock in droves, giving a 'strong' signal that the comeback is for real Posted: 26 Mar 2020 01:20 PM PDT |
| Dow and market going up but one big indicator still going down ! Posted: 26 Mar 2020 02:16 PM PDT You guys probably heard of Baltic Exchange Dry Index BDIY:IND . Its indicator for transportation of dry bulk internationally as well as general shipping market bellwether . So it is indicator for how big is demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers . The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets . That index is indicator for slow economy . As you can see here , we peaked on that index in September of 2019 and since than its mostly drop . And it is significant drop , from 2,518 to current 582 . That is almost 80% . Huge for something like this . Its not BTC or penny stock .. Last 10 days its going down every day ( yesterday 3.48% ) . And Dow is keep going up . With current corona situation, countries all around the world closing borders , small, medium and large business closing door, unemployment sky rocketing , and 12 years of bull market someone can really think this drop is over ? Those are people same as our president , who doesn't want to see big picture and only care of what will be current look and it doesn't matter that trash is pilling up under the carpet . Wait until we got numbers on unemployment rates ( and im not talking about number coming out in few days im talking about numbers coming out in the next few months ) . Then percentage of people infected with corona virus in USA . People that dont want to go back to their job because they are scared . Numbers for first quarter earnings that coming out next month , etc etc .. We will see much bigger drop and don't let this pump fool you . [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:09 AM PDT Hello, I am trying to understand what can explain a premium or discount to the NAV of an open ended fund. In a closed end fund it is very understandable but for an open ended fund shouldn't premium/discounts be very limited due to arbitrage? Thank you for your help 🙏🙏 [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Mar 2020 08:53 AM PDT There is a lot of uncertainty with the market right now. Stock prices are soaring like nothing is happening while there's a record breaking 3 million job loss in 1 week and hospitals are running at max capacity while not having enough supplies. Cases are also popping up in the Middle East and Africa. With all the misinformation from the administration and Trump's false optimism in telling people to go back to work in April and the U-shaped recovery, I thought to share McKinsey's insights to business executives on the current state of impact of coronavirus. Here's the link to the full report. [link] [comments]  |
| Russia's RDIF: New OPEC+ deal possible to address demand if others join Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:15 AM PDT Link to article: https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-russia-rdif/russias-rdif-new-opec-deal-possible-to-address-demand-if-others-join-idUSR4N2B4012 Of note this isn't coming out of Alexander Novak, Russia's MoE who is the official point of contact, or commentary from Igor Sechin who runs Rosnef and is alleged to be the one pushing for exiting the prior deal so it's tough to say how much support there is internally in Russia at this point, but often times changes in stance are telegraphed or floated by other parties and as the article states:
It's anecdotal but this is yet another indication that maybe we won't end up seeing the kind of massive supply flood and multiyeaer reduced oil prices that many have been fearing. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 26 Mar 2020 06:50 PM PDT Why do people complain about how much money they lost during a crash as opposed to keeping the stock until it goes back up? Sorry if it's a stupid question. I'm just trying to learn. [link] [comments]  |
| Why Lehman Brothers wasn't bailed out? Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:27 AM PDT Lehman Brothers had 26 000 Employees at the time when they went bankrupt (2008), why Fed/Government allowed them to go bankrupt? Right now for me it feels like it won't be allowed for companies with a lot of employees/economy impact to go bankrupt, why was 2008 Lehman Brothers situation different? (In terms of allowing them to go bankrupt and not bailing them out) [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Lose money with friends!. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment