Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Investing |
- Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here.
- 14 Money Quotes from the Birthday Boy, Warren Buffett
- Forget bitcoin, cannabis is the place to go, says US wealth advisor
- Does anyone have the Martin Shkreli excel models?
- Italy destined to economic crash?
- Ed Thorpe's portfolio is 100% Berkshire Hathaway
- A lot of people might not know this about the housing crash
- How Trump Can Win the Trade War
- Anyone work in the finance field? I’m currently a college student with plans to major in finance. I just wanna learn more about finance and what kinds of jobs are out there for a finance degree. Feel free to dm me, id very much appreciate it!
- Do you guys use a mobile app to track your portfolio?
- How has the active industry responded to the increase in passive investing?
- How should I invest my 100k$
- Where can I find a list of stocks that have not been profitable in the past X years/quarters?
- Should cash be included in portfolio value?
- How to rebalance a portfolio with 25 stocks?
- best way for a newcomer to get into trading?
- What’s non-volatile and better than 2% a year?
- I'm interested in learning more about Sustainable Investing ETF
- Burry officially takes activists position in Tailored Brands
- RSU Recognition in Companies earnings
- 2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.
| Daily Advice Thread - All basic help or advice questions must be posted here. Posted: 31 Aug 2019 05:12 AM PDT If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions. If you are going to ask how to invest you should include relevant information, such as the following:
Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions! [link] [comments]  |
| 14 Money Quotes from the Birthday Boy, Warren Buffett Posted: 31 Aug 2019 06:51 PM PDT August 30th was America's most-loved business tycoon's 89th birthday. He made his fortune (US$82 billion as of July 18, 2019) investing in and helping to build American businesses. I won't waste your time diving into Buffett's background (Wikipedia does a good job), but I will say his wisdom on investing, money and business management is sought by many (including President Barack Obama, as you can see in the pic above). Here are some of his best gems: "Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns." "Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic." "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." "The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective." "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future." "Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." "It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction." "You've gotta keep control of your time, and you can't unless you say no. You can't let people set your agenda in life." "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth." "Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value." (Note: Interestingly, Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, currently holds about $122b in cash.) "I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business." "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" "There comes a time when you ought to start doing what you want. Take a job that you love. You will jump out of bed in the morning. I think you are out of your mind if you keep taking jobs that you don't like because you think it will look good on your resume. Isn't that a little like saving up sex for your old age?" "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks." What are your favorite investing-related quotes? [link] [comments]  |
| Forget bitcoin, cannabis is the place to go, says US wealth advisor Posted: 31 Aug 2019 04:07 PM PDT Cannabis stocks are the "next huge growth area" and the plant has "staggering" possibilities for medical use, according to one advisor to wealthy families. "If you want to be in something that's very growthy, and actually legitimate as it is legalized and controlled properly, I think this is the place to go," Carol Pepper of Pepper International told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday. [link] [comments]  |
| Does anyone have the Martin Shkreli excel models? Posted: 31 Aug 2019 07:46 AM PDT It seems his google drive is no long available. Hoping someone has the models he created during his YT finance courses. [link] [comments]  |
| Italy destined to economic crash? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:11 AM PDT You guys already probably know the situation in Italy but I'll try to sum it up for you as I'm italian. It looks like we are headed for a mega recession with basically 0% GDP growth, and it's already happening. This is due to a number of reasons: short-sighted managerial class and inefficiency, shit education system, too restrictive laws on the labour market, corruption, very high value-added tax ... Maybe with the right government and right moves GDP could start growing again, but it's highly unlikely in my point of view. Alongside this problem we have not only an already high level of debt (132% of GDP in 2018), but it's expected to still keep growing because of the socialist and welfarist mentality of our population and political class. The so called annual "government economic maneuver" is always in deficit compared to GDP. In addition to that in the next 10-15-20 years there will be crazy population aging and it is expected that in the future we will have more people on pension checks than people working. In the next 3 years alone the public expenditure on pension checks is estimated to grow €100bln. You have to consider that a good chunk of our creditors come from eurozone 26.2%, 5.1% come from other economies and 68.7% come from Italy itself. These look like perfect ingredients for a default and a big economic crisis in the not so distant future. In my opinion the only way to solve this would be through austerity, but the only government that did that was hated by most of the population As a 20 year old I would like to know what you think will happen to Italy and the eurozone and most important of all what you think one should do to secure his savings. [link] [comments]  |
| Ed Thorpe's portfolio is 100% Berkshire Hathaway Posted: 31 Aug 2019 07:54 AM PDT Edward Thorp, the father of card counting and quantitative investing, invests in BRK.A to avoid taxation of dividends Quote from an interview: Q: What's in your portfolio now? A: One good stroke of good fortune was meeting Warren Buffett in 1968. It led me to realize that I needed to invest in Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK.A), although I didn't do it until 1982. It's my single investment in the stock market. It's like a broad value-stocks equity index. I hold it in lieu of VTSAX [the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund]. It does about as well with no current taxes to pay. VTSAX has dividends that are taxed annually. I also have some hedge funds, but I consider them not as good as Berkshire, so I use them to spend and finance other things I do. Read the whole interview here: https://reddit.app.link/gmBpc7TwxZ A chart showing BRK.B performance vs S&P 500 with UNTAXED dividends, over the last 16 years: [link] [comments]  |
| A lot of people might not know this about the housing crash Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:29 AM PDT I only know this because I was there. So leading up to the housing crash there wasn't really a good way to know in real time how much your house was worth. Then came Zillow. Where you could look up the value of every single house sort of like the stock market. And It was all fine and people loved it... when prices were going up, but any sign of weakness and now you have the same type of panic where retail investors all try to sell at the wrong time. And this is what happened. One more important thing happened too. There were many bears betting against housing and I suspect they had something to do with this. But right before housing crashed there was a change in Zillow's "algorithm" that calculates how much your house is worth and out of nowhere everyone suddenly got a big haircut. I don't have much detail beyond that. But I do remember that there was quite a lot of uproar among homeowners about Zillow's "algorithm change" I don't hear many people talking about it nowadays or connecting the dots... Just a little history for you all! [link] [comments]  |
| How Trump Can Win the Trade War Posted: 31 Aug 2019 11:23 PM PDT https://news.yahoo.com/trump-win-trade-war-010011848.html (Bloomberg Opinion) -- If the trade war's objective is to even the playing field for American firms, President Donald Trump isn't going about it the right way. China's easy access to U.S. dollars over the past decade has fueled asset bubbles, driven an overseas debt binge and laid the groundwork for its low-cost, export-driven economy. Only cutting off the supply of cheap money will reverse this. Fundamentally, money will go where it can find yield. And however much capital the world has to spare, China has shown an appetite to absorb it. During the most expansive years of quantitative easing in the U.S., foreign money seeking yield went into China labeled as "trade" and "investment." Since Beijing's capital controls, at the time, aimed to shut out foreigners eager to bet on a steadily strengthening yuan, speculators looked for bypasses: For example, some trading companies in China would inflate the value of their exports, enabling more money to enter the country as "export receipts." Exaggerated foreign direct investment was also a popular channel for incoming speculative money, as was debt. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2019 10:52 PM PDT |
| Do you guys use a mobile app to track your portfolio? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 04:16 AM PDT And if you do, what feature(s) do you wish it had? I'm going to be studying Computer Science so I want to create as many applicable projects as possible. I was thinking of creating a portfolio app that tracks all of your investments, but if there's something like that already which provides analytics, notifications, nice interface, etc., then I won't try. [link] [comments]  |
| How has the active industry responded to the increase in passive investing? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:34 AM PDT For example would you say the rise of robo investors is active institutions trying to mimic the low ocf charges of index funds [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Sep 2019 03:23 AM PDT Hello as the title says I have 100k$ (USD) just for investment purpose. I'm not in any debts and I have my own home. I just want to invest this money Can anyone provide me details on how to invest this money Also I live in Japan Thanks in advance :) [link] [comments]  |
| Where can I find a list of stocks that have not been profitable in the past X years/quarters? Posted: 31 Aug 2019 04:06 PM PDT Many screeners look at revenue, however I am looking for a screener or list that shows stocks which have been reporting losses for X amount of time, ideally 3 years in my circumstance. [link] [comments]  |
| Should cash be included in portfolio value? Posted: 01 Sep 2019 01:41 AM PDT I calculate portfolio return much according to this method (Holdin Period Return). For me it seems easy because some months I buy more and some months less, some months I add cash to the account and some months not. [link] [comments]  |
| How to rebalance a portfolio with 25 stocks? Posted: 31 Aug 2019 05:53 PM PDT Let's say you have a porfolio of 25 stocks and you give them each an equal weight so each stock is 4%. Obviously after a while, stocks that do well will obtain a bigger weight in your port and others which underperform will get a smaller weight. Does it make sense to rebalance all those stocks once or twice a year, so selling a bit of the stocks that have done the best and buying those who underperformed so all go back to each having a weight of 4% in your portfolio. On the other hand, you may want your good stocks to keep running (momentum) and maybe cut lose stocks you no longer believe in for example if their fundametals change, so how do you than apply sensible rebalancing of your stocks? Hope some here can give some good advice. Thanks in advance. [link] [comments]  |
| best way for a newcomer to get into trading? Posted: 31 Aug 2019 11:50 PM PDT I am just starting to get into the stock market and i'm not sure how to start trading. I've seen a bunch of different apps (specifically Robinhood) but i don't know which app is the best, most reliable, and such. My friend uses the app Vangaurd which he says is great but they charge $20 to buy and $20 to sell. Any recommendations to get into stock trading? [link] [comments]  |
| What’s non-volatile and better than 2% a year? Posted: 31 Aug 2019 10:32 PM PDT Something that doesn't move too much up or down. I'm looking at bonds, but it looks like it jumped up so high, it is going hit down hard soon. [link] [comments]  |
| I'm interested in learning more about Sustainable Investing ETF Posted: 31 Aug 2019 11:10 AM PDT I'm starting to learn more about ETFs and one subject I'm interested in a sustainable environment. I've been reading about it but didn't find much information about it. One of the things I found was What is Sustainable Investing by iShares. In particular, I was interested in this iShares MSCI Global Impact ETF but couldn't find it on justetf to know more about it. I would like to know what are your thoughts on it and if you recommend any of its ETF (available in Europe!). [link] [comments]  |
| Burry officially takes activists position in Tailored Brands Posted: 31 Aug 2019 02:13 PM PDT "the Reporting Persons recommended that the Board (i) prioritize a substantial buyback along with continued aggressive debt reduction, and (ii) eliminate or vastly reduce the dividend in order to facilitate these recommended capital allocations." If the boards agree, with 44% short interest the stock might shoot higher. [link] [comments]  |
| RSU Recognition in Companies earnings Posted: 31 Aug 2019 12:34 PM PDT Uber had 5B losses in last quarter of 2019. One of the biggest contributors to that was their RSU recognition as they IPO'ed this year. Uber CEO mentioned (in many interviews) that (approx 3b loss from RSU recognition) is a one time event. Question: Isn't RSU recognition a periodic event, as they offer RSU to employees when they join and to retain employees (refreshers?) Thanks [link] [comments]  |
| 2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market. Posted: 31 Aug 2019 03:22 PM PDT Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though. This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid. Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure. This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen. Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does. I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first). Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same. I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes. Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects. This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth). Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves! You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well. I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof. Stop Fear Mongering! I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after. This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen. No One Can Time the Market!People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time. [Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts. What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news. Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business. I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the. I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this. The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment. Forecast and Plan. What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly? It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall. What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more. I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs? What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886? I think people would be afraid! Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021. How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart? That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about. Edit: Hmm, it sounds like it's not going to happen. I can not post pictures here apparently. This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more! 1 - Filter and assess your sources. Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong. 2 - Do not panic. This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio. 3 - Buy Around 1,800 This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time. 4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again. At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious). 2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333. This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs. Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas. If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened. When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if. 5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100 If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation). I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do. I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate. If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000. I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts. [link] [comments]  |
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